Jonger Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Gonna need a violent and strong volcanic eruption. Or an astroid impact. Let's do it... I wanna ride my snowmobile in June. We are due for a big mid latitude volcano. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Well hell if I am going to be wrong about March, I'd rather be wrong this way as it looks active but cooler than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Let's do it... I wanna ride my snowmobile in June. We are due for a big mid latitude volcano. That would be so cool... To wear a hoodie year around! 40's/50's in the Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 That would be so cool... To wear a hoodie year around! 40's/50's in the Summer Barow AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Let's do it... I wanna ride my snowmobile in June. We are due for a big mid latitude volcano. Yea buddy...global starvation is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Yea buddy...global starvation is cool. Relax... were kidding, I know it's not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Well DTW has had an above normal snow season locked up since February 27th. However we have missed out entirely on the several rounds of fun since then. With a cold active pattern looking like a good possibility, and all this morch nonsense safely taken to the woodshed...time to set sights on a few more numbers. DTW needs 5.3" more to hit 50" and 12.3" more to break into the top 20 snowiest winters at 57". Climo from here on out is about 5 more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Well DTW has had an above normal snow season locked up since February 27th. However we have missed out entirely on the several rounds of fun since then. With a cold active pattern looking like a good possibility, and all this morch nonsense safely taken to the woodshed...time to set sights on a few more numbers. DTW needs 5.3" more to hit 50" and 12.3" more to break into the top 20 snowiest winters at 57". Climo from here on out is about 5 more inches. I'm with ya, but.... 12" in March does not equal 12" in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 12z GEFS 6-10 and 11-15 day 850 temp departures. 12z GEFS 6-10 and 11-15 day mean total precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 That would be so cool... To wear a hoodie year around! 40's/50's in the Summer lots of Summer afternoons in Copper Harbor require a hoodie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Not impressed with the 12z. No organization, looked confused. GFS went in the trash can by 84hrs. I could go for a pattern changing bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Ha, you may get it. Yes sir, you may get it. Although if we get a quick flip at this point it would be disaster for the rivers in streams of the bluffs that I live in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 lots of Summer afternoons in Copper Harbor require a hoodie Plus from northern California all the way up the coast required a sweatshirt or jacket a lot of the time in the summer. Up in the Cascade or Rocky Mountains in places the averages are in the 50s. Labrador, NewFoundland - they're all pretty cool in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 March 65 was more heavily pacific driven. This is Atlantic driven(which also explains why similiar departures are not likely). Once the Atlantic gives out.........pffffffffffffffffttttttttttt. Some of the ECMWF ensembles show it falling apart after the 20th though they may be to quick. Care to post some proof of this? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'd like to see some back-up evidence. Based on reanalysis, the NAO was predominantly negative in March, 1965, at times significantly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Plus from northern California all the way up the coast required a sweatshirt or jacket a lot of the time in the summer. Up in the Cascade or Rocky Mountains in places the averages are in the 50s. Labrador, NewFoundland - they're all pretty cool in the summer. I'd like an average of 60's for highs and upper 40's for lows in Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Care to post some proof of this? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'd like to see some back-up evidence. Based on reanalysis, the NAO was predominantly negative in March, 1965, at times significantly so. Yeah 1965 was Atlantic driven too, not sure where Angry is coming from, especially with his lack of proof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Yea buddy...global starvation is cool. Maybe we could suck that 0.8C warming out of the globe through. Well DTW has had an above normal snow season locked up since February 27th. However we have missed out entirely on the several rounds of fun since then. With a cold active pattern looking like a good possibility, and all this morch nonsense safely taken to the woodshed...time to set sights on a few more numbers. DTW needs 5.3" more to hit 50" and 12.3" more to break into the top 20 snowiest winters at 57". Climo from here on out is about 5 more inches. Howell (Lansing corridor is one of the few below normal spots in the subforum. Gratz to all Mid Michigan folks on having the only fail of a season in the region! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Look at reanalysis. Classic +WPO/-EPO signature. Big ridge from Baja to Alaska/western Canada. This frankly, isn't that cold. Typical March cold. Phasing potential is of the chart. That is where the fun is at!!! March of 1965 was predominantly -WPO, the thing is it was mostly -AO, though not quite to the magnitude that is progged. It was also predcominantly -NAO through the first 20 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 GEM shows a nice wave moving along the baroclinic zone Saturday and Saturday night. Would be a nice hit for much of Iowa into northern IL. The GEM has been pretty terrible, so this probably has zero chance at coming anything close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Total GFS snowfall through the equinox (Wed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Total GFS snowfall through the equinox (Wed). 168totalGFS.png lol, poor DLL is gonna be ready to move to Tahiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Total GFS snowfall through the equinox (Wed). 168totalGFS.png This would just put the cherry on top of what has already been an A+ backloaded winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 lol, poor DLL is gonna be ready to move to Tahiti. Lol. Probably WxBo too. This would just put the cherry on top of what has already been an A+ backloaded winter There's going to be some serious departures from normal this month if WI gets buried in another 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 If the baroclinic zone flattens east to west as we move into late March/April even without deeply amplified systems in a more zonal flow I would think that spring warming and moisture progressing northward would favor the Midwest with increased chances for storminess given the cold reservoir available. Of course for significant svr wx we need a negative tilt with good jet dynamics involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Total GFS snowfall through the equinox (Wed). 168totalGFS.png This would just put the cherry on top of what has already been an A+ backloaded winter I thought you hated winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 If the baroclinic zone flattens east to west as we move into late March/April even without deeply amplified systems in a more zonal flow I would think that spring warming and moisture progressing northward would favor the Midwest with increased chances for storminess given the cold reservoir available. Of course for significant svr wx we need a negative tilt with good jet dynamics involved. I am seeing that the vorticity energy now near the East Coast will move to the Maritimes and then roll back into Nunavut (NWT) eventually because of the blocking. Beauteous! Watch out for model errors with the fast jet stream in the US, polar vortex north, ridge south. Friday afternoon- The GFS shows about 0 degrees at Thunder Bay ONT, maybe up to 60 at St. Louis. You got to think some sort of forecasting mischief has got to come out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 If the baroclinic zone flattens east to west as we move into late March/April even without deeply amplified systems in a more zonal flow I would think that spring warming and moisture progressing northward would favor the Midwest with increased chances for storminess given the cold reservoir available. Of course for significant svr wx we need a negative tilt with good jet dynamics involved. Quite a few of the most significant events in this region's history have been with a positive tilt trough (especially with an intense ejecting speed max), including 4/11/65, 4/3/56, 3/2/12 and 4/21/67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Lol. Probably WxBo too. There's going to be some serious departures from normal this month if WI gets buried in another 6-12". lol never! I moved here for the snow. Spring and Summer will come and I'll enjoy what they have to offer as well, but I'm a snowlover at heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Quite a few of the most significant events in this region's history have been with a positive tilt trough, including 4/11/65, 4/3/56 and 4/21/67. Yes, agreed on those classic instances. Help me out, guys. Am I correct in thinking that a positive tilt system is oriented sw/ne and is usually intensifying and not considered as mature as a negative tilt system? Thus it is still increasing in intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 13, 2013 Share Posted March 13, 2013 Please wagons north please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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