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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 4


hm8

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Well DTW has had an above normal snow season locked up since February 27th. However we have missed out entirely on the several rounds of fun since then. With a cold active pattern looking like a good possibility, and all this morch nonsense safely taken to the woodshed...time to set sights on a few more numbers. DTW needs 5.3" more to hit 50" and 12.3" more to break into the top 20 snowiest winters at 57". Climo from here on out is about 5 more inches.

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Well DTW has had an above normal snow season locked up since February 27th. However we have missed out entirely on the several rounds of fun since then. With a cold active pattern looking like a good possibility, and all this morch nonsense safely taken to the woodshed...time to set sights on a few more numbers. DTW needs 5.3" more to hit 50" and 12.3" more to break into the top 20 snowiest winters at 57". Climo from here on out is about 5 more inches.

I'm with ya, but.... 12" in March does not equal 12" in Jan.

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lots of Summer afternoons in Copper Harbor require a hoodie :P

 

Plus from northern California all the way up the coast required a sweatshirt or jacket a lot of the time in the summer. Up in the Cascade or Rocky Mountains in places the averages are in the 50s. Labrador, NewFoundland - they're all pretty cool in the summer.

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March 65 was more heavily pacific driven. This is Atlantic driven(which also explains why similiar departures are not likely). Once the Atlantic gives out.........pffffffffffffffffttttttttttt. Some of the ECMWF ensembles show it falling apart after the 20th though they may be to quick. 

 

Care to post some proof of this? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'd like to see some back-up evidence.

 

Based on reanalysis, the NAO was predominantly negative in March, 1965, at times significantly so.

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Plus from northern California all the way up the coast required a sweatshirt or jacket a lot of the time in the summer. Up in the Cascade or Rocky Mountains in places the averages are in the 50s. Labrador, NewFoundland - they're all pretty cool in the summer.

I'd like an average of 60's for highs and upper 40's for lows in Summer.

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Care to post some proof of this? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I'd like to see some back-up evidence.

 

Based on reanalysis, the NAO was predominantly negative in March, 1965, at times significantly so.

 

 

Yeah 1965 was Atlantic driven too, not sure where Angry is coming from, especially with his lack of proof.

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Yea buddy...global starvation is cool.

 

Maybe we could suck that 0.8C warming out of the globe through.

 

Well DTW has had an above normal snow season locked up since February 27th. However we have missed out entirely on the several rounds of fun since then. With a cold active pattern looking like a good possibility, and all this morch nonsense safely taken to the woodshed...time to set sights on a few more numbers. DTW needs 5.3" more to hit 50" and 12.3" more to break into the top 20 snowiest winters at 57". Climo from here on out is about 5 more inches.

 

Howell (Lansing corridor  is one of the few below normal spots in the subforum. Gratz to all Mid Michigan folks on having the only fail of a season in the region!

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Look at reanalysis. Classic +WPO/-EPO signature. Big ridge from Baja to Alaska/western Canada. This frankly, isn't that cold. Typical March cold. Phasing potential is of the chart. That is where the fun is at!!!

March of 1965 was predominantly -WPO, the thing is it was mostly -AO, though not quite to the magnitude that is progged. It was also predcominantly -NAO through the first 20 days.

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lol, poor DLL is gonna be ready to move to Tahiti. 

 

Lol. Probably WxBo too.

 

This would just put the cherry on top of what has already been an A+ backloaded winter :thumbsup:

 

There's going to be some serious departures from normal this month if WI gets buried in another 6-12".

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If the baroclinic zone flattens east to west as we move into late March/April even without deeply amplified systems in a more zonal flow I would think that spring warming and moisture progressing northward would favor the Midwest with increased chances for storminess given the cold reservoir available. Of course for significant svr wx we need a negative tilt with good jet dynamics involved.

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If the baroclinic zone flattens east to west as we move into late March/April even without deeply amplified systems in a more zonal flow I would think that spring warming and moisture progressing northward would favor the Midwest with increased chances for storminess given the cold reservoir available. Of course for significant svr wx we need a negative tilt with good jet dynamics involved.

 

I am seeing that the vorticity energy now near the East Coast will move to the Maritimes and then roll back into Nunavut (NWT) eventually because of the blocking. Beauteous!  Watch out for model errors with the fast jet stream in the US, polar vortex north, ridge south.

 

Friday afternoon- The GFS shows about 0 degrees at Thunder Bay ONT, maybe up to 60 at St. Louis. You got to think some sort of forecasting mischief has got to come out of that.

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If the baroclinic zone flattens east to west as we move into late March/April even without deeply amplified systems in a more zonal flow I would think that spring warming and moisture progressing northward would favor the Midwest with increased chances for storminess given the cold reservoir available. Of course for significant svr wx we need a negative tilt with good jet dynamics involved.

 

Quite a few of the most significant events in this region's history have been with a positive tilt trough (especially with an intense ejecting speed max), including 4/11/65, 4/3/56, 3/2/12 and 4/21/67.

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Quite a few of the most significant events in this region's history have been with a positive tilt trough, including 4/11/65, 4/3/56 and 4/21/67.

Yes, agreed on those classic instances. Help me out, guys.  Am I correct in thinking that a positive tilt system is oriented sw/ne and is usually intensifying and not considered as mature as a negative tilt system?  Thus it is still increasing in intensity?

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