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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 4


hm8

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I've often wonder if nature is always searching for balance. Could it be that nature is trying to even things out given last March was so warm?

I've always been a fan of what I call the "rubber band theory".  Trouble is we don't know for sure when it will snap. In all seriousness, this is why hurricanes seek to distribute heat poleward.

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Euro also drops a major trough into the West at the end of the run, which, if it played out similar to what is currently suggested, the first trough would likely act as a moisture pump considering its track. I wouldn't rule the first trough out either for something on the warm sector side, as shown by the Euro.

 

By the way: March, 1965 now showing up twice on the 00z GFS analog suite. The GFS ensembles in the majority had a mean trough in the West in the mid/long range, to correlate with the 00z Euro.

 

500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

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6z GFS looks like it wants to show record cold late in the month...too far out to believe anything, but nice to see :axe:

At this point we have to hope that when we do get spring all at once.  The snow pack just to the west of la crosse is pretty impressive now, and it has a whole lot of water in it.

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AO to take a dive. Impressive.

 

 

According to CPC data, here's the Marches with an average negative AO of -2 or greater. 

 

March 1957: -2.01

March 1958: -2.52

March 1962: -2.85

March 1970: -2.08

March 1984: -2.39

 

Temperature departures of each of those months below, using 1981-10 normals as the backdrop. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If we combine all five of those years into a composite, the April map has the look of troughing in the western 1/2 of the country. Take it FWIW. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Chicago-

What is the deal with NOAA data...they only go back to 1948 on this page now?  I swear it use to be like 1900 or even before then?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

 

Back to 1871 here: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.day.v2.pl'>http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.day.v2.pl

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Isn't there something that a cold March=cold spring?  I swear i've heard that thrown around before...maybe not...i'll have to do a little investigative work and see if there is any basis in that around here... 

I've been browsing through David Ludlum's Early American Winters and apparently spring 1812 was a very backward spring. Perhaps that should be one of our analogs? :devilsmiley:

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The good thing for folks around here who don't like cold is that average highs are creeping up on 50. With the stronger sun, it doesn't feel too terrible unless it's windy and/or way below average.

 

Yeah, it's all relative. Plus, it's not like there isn't going to be a few warm days thrown in from time to time...but the balance through the end of the month is cooler than normal. Not like it's not manageable for the cold haters...but March 2012 this isn't.

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