andyhb Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Some interesting analog patterns here. Early April 1965 at #2. Late March 1977 at #5, the Smithfield F5 tornado near Birmingham struck on 4/4/77. There are other interesting years as well in there, like March, 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Also a good blog post here on the upcoming severe season (Check the comments as well for some interesting thoughts). http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/2013/03/2013-official-severe-weather-outlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Yeah, the active pattern from April 23rd to May 10th, 2010 was under a sustained -NAO. June 17th of that year was also under a -NAO. Allot of that Summer was under a sustained -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Allot of that Summer was under a sustained -NAO Actually a lot of July and August 2010 was under a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Also a good blog post here on the upcoming severe season (Check the comments as well for some interesting thoughts). http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/2013/03/2013-official-severe-weather-outlook.html Great read, thanks. Would be nice to see this pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Actually a lot of July and August 2010 was under a +NAO. Well it wasn't crazy negative but it was mostly a -NAO regime from May through September. ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/nao_index.tim 2010 5 -1.332010 6 -0.522010 7 -0.392010 8 -1.692010 9 -0.62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Another ideal summer pattern in addition to 2010 was 2000. May through August, precip was average or above average, several episodes of thunderstorms obviously, yet temps were below average through most of the period. Average/below average and stormy are ideal in my mind, as strong t'storms still happen those summers, and chances are much greater than hot and dry summers like last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Well it wasn't crazy negative but it was mostly a -NAO regime from May through September. ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/nao_index.tim 2010 5 -1.332010 6 -0.522010 7 -0.392010 8 -1.692010 9 -0.62 Yeah, although June 20th to July 13th was all under a +NAO, which explains the weaker negativity in June/July. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/teleconn/nao.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 The only good thing about hot/dry summers is Lake Michigan is warmer for the kids at the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Another ideal summer pattern in addition to 2010 was 2000. May through August, precip was average or above average, several episodes of thunderstorms obviously, yet temps were below average through most of the period. Average/below average and stormy are ideal in my mind, as strong t'storms still happen those summers, and chances are much greater than hot and dry summers like last. Summer of 2010 wasn't cool at all.. Summer of 2009(My favorite summer ever!) was the cool one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 been hearing lots of birds...snow is gone and i'm ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Summer of 2010 wasn't cool at all.. Summer of 2009(My favorite summer ever!) was the cool one.. I know, but with the storminess, it didn't feel too bad compared the last two. I'm just stating my ideal summer, but I'd still take a repeat of 2010 over the alternatives. Even though I do prefer storminess, I'll take an '09 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 been hearing lots of birds...snow is gone and i'm ready for spring. Morch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 The only good thing about hot/dry summers is Lake Michigan is warmer for the kids at the beach. Good thing about around here is if Lake Michigan is chilly, you can always find a milder smaller lake to swim in nearby. --- I'll take a summer of 2009 again! We're getting our payback from last Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Good thing about around here is if Lake Michigan is chilly, you can always find a milder smaller lake to swim in nearby. --- I'll take a summer of 2009 again! We're getting our payback from last Morch. Lots of smaller lakes around here also, but the kids like the big lake better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Lots of smaller lakes around here also, but the kids like the big lake better. The more I consider about Chicago's trash and Grand Rapids back up waste entering from the Grand river, the less of a desire I have for swimming in the lake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Morch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Also a good blog post here on the upcoming severe season (Check the comments as well for some interesting thoughts). http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/2013/03/2013-official-severe-weather-outlook.html This looks a lot better than last year. Unlike last year there is a deep snowpack over the Canadian prairies. The only thing that concerns me is the southern plains are still awfully dry. Need more precip over Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and Iowa to stop the dewpoints from mixing out upstream by the time they make it to IL, WI and MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 This looks a lot better than last year. Unlike last year there is a deep snowpack over the Canadian prairies. The only thing that concerns me is the southern plains are still awfully dry. Need more precip over Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and Iowa to stop the dewpoints from mixing out upstream by the time they make it to IL, WI and MI. Well that depends on where the moisture trajectory is primarily located, if you have more of a southerly or south-southwesterly flow, then you aren't necessarily advecting over the Plains. Keep in mind that the most severe drought is over the western Plain states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Well that depends on where the moisture trajectory is primarily located, if you have more of a southerly or south-southwesterly flow, then you aren't necessarily advecting over the Plains. Keep in mind that the most severe drought is over the western Plain states. Yea, it depends on the situation. I'm just concerned about the drought expanding east into Missouri like it did last year. The western plains don't really matter for MI as moisture originating that far west has to flow downhill which generally doesn't happen except under a mid-summer death ridge which is unfavorable no matter what the soil conditions are over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 All I know is we need some rain and moisture proto. I was traveling down the north shore of lake Erie when to my astonishment I saw a island of sand where I have never seen low water. Even the small inlets leading to the lake are 80% dry where two years ago me and the kids took the small 12' alunimum boat down the river. Today a good pair of boots would be all you need. We must be 2' low this early in the season.... WOW !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 That excellent Weather Centre severe wx blog is chilling to say the least for those of us here in the heartland as we anticipate an active and possibly dangerous April and May sv wx season. And to have Greg Carbin, WCM at SPC also concur in the thinking only raises the ante. Glad we have such dedicated pros and amateur enthusiasts on a board such as this to give a heads up to us weather weenies so we can get the word out well in advance to those in our areas of responsibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 And to have Greg Carbin, WCM at SPC also concur in the thinking only raises the ante. Do you have a link to this? Would love to read. Thanks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Do you have a link to this? Would love to read. Thanks, Be sure to read the comments listed at the end of the blog referenced above by Andy to see Greg's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Be sure to read the comments listed at the end of the blog referenced above by Andy to see Greg's thoughts. Awesome, thanks. More comments have been added since I checked yesterday. Sounds like the ingredients are there for a good season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Oh wow at Carbin's thoughts, that sent a shiver up my spine...not sure the last time I saw that kind of longer range warning from someone at the SPC. Eric's most recent post would likely mean some very interesting happenings come April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 Also a good blog post here on the upcoming severe season (Check the comments as well for some interesting thoughts). http://theweathercentre.blogspot.ca/2013/03/2013-official-severe-weather-outlook.html Most interesting. I am looking forward to severe weather season to see what that brings. From what I read in that blog post, and, the comments attached, especially the one from the SPC in Norman, OK... it looks like it's gonna be a rough ride for parts of this subforum this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 you don't see this color often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 0z Euro ensemble mean and GEFS mean 850 temperature anomalies at 192 hours. Good agreement. Euro ENSM GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 0z Euro ensemble mean and GEFS mean 850 temperature anomalies at 192 hours. Good agreement. Euro ENSM 3:11 0z Euro ENSM 192.gif GEFS 3:11 0z GEFS 192.gif GGEM has been closer to the GFS in this range. The Euro wants to blow up yet another Nor'Easter but has been inconsistent at that, certainly a wait and see though I do say the GFS has had a more consistent look to it in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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