snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Heavy pattern coming up Aloft it wasn't that much of a miss for us, although at the sfc the results of the 12z run were worse than the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Solid fantasy land storm on the 12z GFS (18-19th). Maybe cyclone get some love with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There it is...payback for the suffering of the Chicago crew. Only 240+ hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Tim is trolling hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Tim is trolling hard Grasping at straws. But this is the winter redemption run from the GFS. LAF only has to wait until 360 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We're all Canadians today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z UKie looks like a redeveloper for the 15-16th. Might not be too bad for OH...primary into WV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I see biggens.....Real or fake they are all nice to dream about. Something is brewing I can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z GEFS were bleh wrt the weekend threat. EURO's gotta show some movement on the 12z run towards an GLOV storm. Otherwise, I'm filing this under chasing a ghost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z GEFS were bleh wrt the weekend threat. EURO's gotta show some movement on the 12z run towards an GLOV storm. Otherwise, I'm filing this under chasing a ghost. Meh indeed. And yeah, no buying until the Euro gets on board. Still, I think it's an eastern Lakes/eastern OV threat at best. Places west of OH, move along...nothing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Buckeye will like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Buckeye will like this... GGEM being the most amped up at this point isn't a shock or a good sign imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That is one active GFs op run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro isn't gonna play ball for the 15-16th system. Though I will say it came north for this upcoming DC snow event. So it was playing from behind on that one. Score one for the NAM I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro isn't gonna play ball for the 15-16th system. Though I will say it came north for this upcoming DC snow event. So it was playing from behind on that one. Score one for the NAM I believe. yup, zip-a-dee-doo-da. Oh well. Time to look beyond D7 (to the next threat or to spring, whichever your preference). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yup, zip-a-dee-doo-da. Oh well. Time to look beyond D7 (to the next threat or to spring, whichever your preference). 12z Euro will continue the theme of the 0z run that had a day 7-8 storm. Of course, it's gonna be a wet storm for MBY. Something to watch for cycloneville, daddylonglegs, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 No sense getting into the details, but it seems we can take away that most of the models have something in the 7-8 day range. Which is an eternity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z Euro will continue the theme of the 0z run that had a day 7-8 storm. Of course, it's gonna be a wet storm for MBY. Something to watch for cycloneville, daddylonglegs, etc. Yeah, I haven't really believed there to be a threat within 7 days. The next legit threat region-wide is early next week, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Going to have watch N IL on Friday, EURO was spitting out 2 to maybe 4". THU 12Z 14-FEB 0.8 -2.2 1005 78 68 0.00 533 529 THU 18Z 14-FEB 6.0 -4.6 1006 52 45 0.00 531 526 FRI 00Z 15-FEB 1.9 -6.5 1010 77 100 0.02 532 524 FRI 06Z 15-FEB -0.6 -7.8 1013 91 99 0.01 531 520 FRI 12Z 15-FEB -1.2 -10.0 1016 89 98 0.16 528 515 FRI 18Z 15-FEB -2.1 -12.0 1019 57 100 0.11 527 512 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Gfa fantasy land land several ensembles looking good for 2 storms feb 19-23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Gfa fantasy land land several ensembles looking good for 2 storms feb 19-23.Yep. I know it's the GFS but all the globalModels right now have something early next week and the storm that the GFS has post D10 you can see on the EUro @ d10 so headed into an active pattern no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yep. I know it's the GFS but all the global Models right now have something early next week and the storm that the GFS has post D10 you can see on the EUro @ d10 so headed into an active pattern no doubt simmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 simmer Lol I know I need to temper my expectations however from reading what the fine folks in the SNE forum have to say, the euro ensembles are also stormy like the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol I know I need to temper my expectations however from reading what the fine folks in the SNE forum have to say, the euro ensembles are also stormy like the GEFS Ok, just don't expect Jan 1999 or Feb 2008. If I had to wager, I'd say we'd be lucky if we get 1 storm during this "stormy pattern" to work out. And "work out" is still less snow than 2/8. 3-5" followed by ice and/or rain to me is "worked out". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That is one active GFs op run for sure. The Pacific Jet is absolutely cranking and has been with several mid/long range progs for days now. The 12z GFS ensembles are pretty telling. Problem is, these wavelengths need to lengthen a bit if we want meaningful moisture return, if one looks at the 12z Euro near the end of its run, it becomes clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The NAM looks like the Euro with the weekend. Fits better. The other models are trying to force a phase when another big piece of energy is crashing the west coast. Likely wrong. And this is based on? Not questioning the Euro since it took a lot of the other models to school with the blizzard, but please provide more information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z GFS/Euro ensembles in great agreement with western troughing becoming established in the 7-10 day period. Also note the extremely strong Pacific Jet with the tight gradient extending from Eastern Asia almost all the way to Pacific NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Long ways off still, but 12z Euro ensemble mean is already pretty far north for the day 7-8 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The GFS is being pretty consistent with two potentially big fantasy storms in the long range. The last Euro I saw was a little too far north for my liking but it at least had both systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The GFS is being pretty consistent with two potentially big fantasy storms in the long range. The last Euro I saw was a little too far north for my liking but it at least had both systems. Even more impressive is that nearly all the ensembles have a decent storm or two. Its not often you see all the ensembles touting a big storm in the 200+ hour range. Thinking this is a good sign, all wont cash in but some likely will...big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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