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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 4


hm8

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12z GEFS were bleh wrt the weekend threat. EURO's gotta show some movement on the 12z run towards an GLOV storm. Otherwise, I'm filing this under chasing a ghost.

 

Meh indeed. And yeah, no buying until the Euro gets on board.  

 

Still, I think it's an eastern Lakes/eastern OV threat at best. Places west of OH, move along...nothing to see.

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Euro isn't gonna play ball for the 15-16th system. 

 

Though I will say it came north for this upcoming DC snow event. So it was playing from behind on that one. Score one for the NAM I believe.

 

yup, zip-a-dee-doo-da. Oh well. Time to look beyond D7 (to the next threat or to spring, whichever your preference).

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yup, zip-a-dee-doo-da. Oh well. Time to look beyond D7 (to the next threat or to spring, whichever your preference).

 

12z Euro will continue the theme of the 0z run that had a day 7-8 storm. Of course, it's gonna be a wet storm for MBY. Something to watch for cycloneville, daddylonglegs, etc.

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12z Euro will continue the theme of the 0z run that had a day 7-8 storm. Of course, it's gonna be a wet storm for MBY. Something to watch for cycloneville, daddylonglegs, etc.

 

Yeah, I haven't really believed there to be a threat within 7 days.  The next legit threat region-wide is early next week, imo.

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Going to have watch N IL on Friday, EURO was spitting out 2 to maybe 4".

 

THU 12Z 14-FEB   0.8    -2.2    1005      78      68    0.00     533     529    THU 18Z 14-FEB   6.0    -4.6    1006      52      45    0.00     531     526    FRI 00Z 15-FEB   1.9    -6.5    1010      77     100    0.02     532     524    FRI 06Z 15-FEB  -0.6    -7.8    1013      91      99    0.01     531     520    FRI 12Z 15-FEB  -1.2   -10.0    1016      89      98    0.16     528     515    FRI 18Z 15-FEB  -2.1   -12.0    1019      57     100    0.11     527     512  
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Lol I know I need to temper my expectations however from reading what the fine folks in the SNE forum have to say, the euro ensembles are also stormy like the GEFS

 

Ok, just don't expect Jan 1999 or Feb 2008. If I had to wager, I'd say we'd be lucky if we get 1 storm during this "stormy pattern" to work out. And "work out" is still less snow than 2/8. 3-5" followed by ice and/or rain to me is "worked out". 

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That is one active GFs op run for sure.

 

The Pacific Jet is absolutely cranking and has been with several mid/long range progs for days now. The 12z GFS ensembles are pretty telling.

 

Problem is, these wavelengths need to lengthen a bit if we want meaningful moisture return, if one looks at the 12z Euro near the end of its run, it becomes clear.

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The NAM looks like the Euro with the weekend. Fits better. The other models are trying to force a phase when another big piece of energy is crashing the west coast. Likely wrong.

 

And this is based on?

 

Not questioning the Euro since it took a lot of the other models to school with the blizzard, but please provide more information.

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The GFS is being pretty consistent with two potentially big fantasy storms in the long range.  The last Euro I saw was a little too far north for my liking but it at least had both systems.

Even more impressive is that nearly all the ensembles have a decent storm or two. Its not often you see all the ensembles touting a big storm in the 200+ hour range. Thinking this is a good sign, all wont cash in but some likely will...big time.

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