IWXwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I haven't looked past last night's storm and I have to head to work, but will be taking a closer look at this later today. Thanks NWS, made me look: CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN TROF AND REACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. INITIALCONCERN WITH SNOW CORES EXCEEDING AN INCH OF WATER IN SOME AREAS COMBINED WITH THE ANALOG RAINFALL OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES COULD LEADSOME RISES AND SOME FLOODING OF RIVERS. A MORE EASTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW TO THE AREAABOUT MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Another rain to snow setup how many times have we seen that this winter? Anyways, there does look to be some potential for accumulating snow on the backside as SLP rides up the front side of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Another rain to snow setup how many times have we seen that this winter? Anyways, there does look to be some potential for accumulating snow on the backside as SLP rides up the front side of the trough. Snow is likely in the WI grids for Monday (105hr on the 18z GFS). Shouldn't have a hard time cooling off given a snow covered ground still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Snow is likely in the WI grids for Monday (105hr on the 18z GFS). Shouldn't have a hard time cooling off given a snow covered ground still. Well the 00z GFS now shows us being split with one system to the north an the other to the south. One thing that's for sure is there will be plenty of rain over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Well the 00z GFS now shows us being split with one system to the north an the other to the south. One thing that's for sure is there will be plenty of rain over the weekend. . Yep, starting to look like two lows, and hopefully one sets up well enough for some of the W Great Lakes region to cash in on some backside snow at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Not sure if QVector is around since he knows a lot more about this than me, but judging by my novice knowledge of these features, that appears to be a significant anomaly over Africa and Western Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Well the 00z GFS now shows us being split with one system to the north an the other to the south. One thing that's for sure is there will be plenty of rain over the weekend. Wouldn't mind getting dry slotted this weekend! 0.50" of rain or so should mostly be absorbed into the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Seems like each run of the GFS emphasizes a different s/w for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 The snowpack is going bye bye. Going to take a while here. 12z GFS cools things off in the mid-range with a trough digging into the GL's/OV. Warm up towards the equinox though. B. Anderson's predictions interpretations of the weeklies: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Going to take a while here. 12z GFS cools things off in the mid-range with a trough digging into the GL's/OV. Warm up towards the equinox though. B. Anderson's predictions: Are those Brett Anderson's predictions or his interpretation of the EURO weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Are those Brett Anderson's predictions or his interpretation of the EURO weeklies? Interpretations of the weeklies. Warmer for your area beyond Easter, but that's April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Interpretations of the weeklies. Warmer for your area beyond Easter, but that's April. lol, yeah, and by then I hope it's warmer. Frankly, wouldn't mind it now too if it wasn't for the low risk potential for a snowstorm. Seems like a textbook -NAO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Nice to see the PNA drop agreed upon in the shorter range now, it was kind of hovering in the mid/long range prior to today's 12z Euro/GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Nice to see the PNA drop agreed upon in the shorter range now, it was kind of hovering in the mid/long range prior to today's 12z Euro/GFS runs. Yeah...which will hopefully be enough for some action in the Plains after mid-month. Obviously, this sub-forum isn't going to see much severe wx action so long as the -NAO sticks around...which may be for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 The only thing I have to add is please god, not another Summer 2010 (too cloudy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 The only thing I have to add is please god, not another Summer 2010 (too cloudy). That was one of the better recent summers imo (up there with Summer 2008). Constant thunderstorm action in the region, and not much heat ridge concerns at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Yeah...which will hopefully be enough for some action in the Plains after mid-month. Obviously, this sub-forum isn't going to see much severe wx action so long as the -NAO sticks around...which may be for quite a while. Well, a -NAO becomes less problematic getting later in the year. I know the April 3rd, 1956 tornado event in Michigan (Hudsonville F5) had a substantial -NAO. April 19th, 1996 (largest single day outbreak in IL history) also had a -NAO. So, a +NAO can be preferred, but it isn't as important usually as a -PNA. Teleconnection analysis thread I put together on Talkweather for severe events: http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?/topic/59109-tornado-events-by-teleconnections/ -NAO/+NAO ratio there is about 40:60. -PNA/+PNA is almost 75:25. That said, the West Based -NAO probably isn't the best at this time, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 That was one of the better recent summers imo (up there with Summer 2008). Constant thunderstorm action in the region, and not much heat ridge concerns at all. Yes but Powerball wants to fry eggs on his forehead. Also, you don't want the drought coming back, so I'd root against a torch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Summer of 2010, the thunderstorm activity I think moved generally south of MI. A SD to OH type track for most storms. Heat dome was far enough away keep the area between 75-85° most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Yes but Powerball wants to fry eggs on his forehead. Also, you don't want the drought coming back, so I'd root against a torch... You're right, to each his own, but I never understand why any posters would get so bent out of shape with accumulating as many 90F days as possible, and list 89F temps as one of their worst things about weather. I like stats as much as the next person, but getting bent out of shape over stats like 90F days and lamenting one degree off does not strike me as nearly the heartbreak as just missing out on a nice snowstorm or MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Summer of 2010, the thunderstorm activity I think moved generally south of MI. A SD to OH type track for most storms. Heat dome was far enough away keep the area between 75-85° most of the time. 2010 was actually one of fhe most active severe seasons/year I can remember here in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Summer '10 was decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Yeah I'd be for a summer of 2010 again, very active for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Summer of 2010, the thunderstorm activity I think moved generally south of MI. A SD to OH type track for most storms. Heat dome was far enough away keep the area between 75-85° most of the time. Yes. Not to mention a lot of our potential 90*F+ days busted because of the MCS debris. A hybrid 2011/2012 summer is perfect IMO. 80*F-85*F and cloudy is not what a summer weather should be like. It's like 40*F and Sunny in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Yes. Not to mention a lot of our potential 90*F+ days busted because of the MCS debris. A hybrid 2011/2012 summer is perfect IMO. 80*F-85*F and cloudy is not what a summer weather should be like. It's like 40*F and Sunny in January. Move to Phoenix if you want hot/sunny/boring summer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Well, a -NAO becomes less problematic getting later in the year. I know the April 3rd, 1956 tornado event in Michigan (Hudsonville F5) had a substantial -NAO. April 19th, 1996 (largest single day outbreak in IL history) also had a -NAO. So, a +NAO can be preferred, but it isn't as important usually as a -PNA. Teleconnection analysis thread I put together on Talkweather for severe events: http://www.talkweather.com/forums/index.php?/topic/59109-tornado-events-by-teleconnections/ -NAO/+NAO ratio there is about 40:60. -PNA/+PNA is almost 75:25. That said, the West Based -NAO probably isn't the best at this time, for sure. Once the wavelengths get shorter later in the spring I'd imagine the -NAO's impact will go down...the -PNA is good, but with west based NAO blocking as you said that will put a lid on things farther east for the foreseeable future this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Once the wavelengths get shorter later in the spring I'd imagine the -NAO's impact will go down...the -PNA is good, but with west based NAO blocking as you said that will put a lid on things farther east for the foreseeable future this early. Yeah, the active pattern from April 23rd to May 10th, 2010 was under a sustained -NAO. June 17th of that year was also under a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Powerball, climo for your area says differently. Low to mid 80s and a mix of cloudy and sunny days would be more typical summer weather for Detroit, like Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 Yeah I'd be for a summer of 2010 again, very active for the region. I'll take '04 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 I'd definitely be up for another spring/summer 2010 redux. Perfect combination of active severe weather and warmth. Though to be honest I've got a thing for heat/humidity and have really enjoyed the past three summers. A summer like 2009 is what I loathe (though last summer was pretty boring weather-wise besides the heat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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