A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 pass...so sick of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 pass...so sick of winter Dont think anyone can blame you for that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 pass...so sick of winter But who said that's all snow? Regardless, Morch is aways away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Anyway, I'd watch the Mon-Tue system if I was in southern MN, IA, IL, S WI, N IN, MI...as most likely the block will be modeled too far SW, and the degree of phasing is TBD. Low may make it through S IL, S IN, etc. on its trek to the SE. After that, follows a cutter most likely. May be a good time for a day or two warm up for the winter tired...then back to seasonable/seasonably cool after. That's my thoughts at the moment...but it won't be completely boring (action wise) for most in the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Anyway, I'd watch the Mon-Tue system if I was in southern MN, IA, IL, S WI, N IN, MI...as most likely the block will be modeled too far SW, and the degree of phasing is TBD. Low may make it through S IL, S IN, etc. on its trek to the SE. After that, follows a cutter most likely. May be a good time for a day or two warm up for the winter tired...then back to seasonable/seasonably cool after. That's my thoughts at the moment...but it won't be completely boring (action wise) for most in the sub-forum. Almost every piece of guidance out there supports those thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Anyway, I'd watch the Mon-Tue system if I was in southern MN, IA, IL, S WI, N IN, MI...as most likely the block will be modeled too far SW, and the degree of phasing is TBD. Low may make it through S IL, S IN, etc. on its trek to the SE. After that, follows a cutter most likely. May be a good time for a day or two warm up for the winter tired...then back to seasonable/seasonably cool after. That's my thoughts at the moment...but it won't be completely boring (action wise) for most in the sub-forum. ...and Ohio as well. At least according to the euro we don't do too bad out here. I guess it all depends...like you said....how bully the block is. Right now I'm thinking the biggest reason for a miss here is everything rotates around us further to the west and south on it's way southeast. If the block is weaker or further northeast then this could be a typical mauler that favors i-80 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Extended temps look warm enough that we should see a slow melt off...not much snow on the ground so hopefully we can zap a lot of it over the next 2 weeks. Bring on spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Extended temps look warm enough that we should see a slow melt off...not much snow on the ground so hopefully we can zap a lot of it over the next 2 weeks. Bring on spring... Could be adding back to that snowpack early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Can definetly tell it is almost march and not january. Temps are 35 expected this afternoon while 850 temps are around -10c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 ...and Ohio as well. At least according to the euro we don't do too bad out here. I guess it all depends...like you said....how bully the block is. Right now I'm thinking the biggest reason for a miss here is everything rotates around us further to the west and south on it's way southeast.* If the block is weaker or further northeast then this could be a typical mauler that favors i-80 north. *see 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 *see 12z gfs Hope the next run has a just a tad weaker block. Want a good storm in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Maybe it's just my pinched nerve is making me grumpy, but, really, I'll pass on the next snow system, if the product it produces is anything like the slop that is my yard now.. Yeah, it's snow, but it's wet, heavy, and nasty. Winter was kind of a disappointment as far as snow fall goes, but, really, I can do without these wet, heavy systems. The ratios on that last one, were about 7:1 or so... I was out side with the family, directing the less-than-enthusiastic shoveling the other night, and though... "If it was 2 degrees warmer, this would all be rain." It was really depressing. Now, contrast that to the GHD blizzard. I was outside shoveling during that, and loved every minute of it. It was cold, it was windy, the snow was the light powdery kind, that moves with very little effort. Yeah, it was work, and it was cold, but, it was a "winter" snow. Standing outside the other night, in temps that bordered right on 32, and with wet, heavy flakes that felt more like raindrops, and a snowblower that kept jamming from the heavy snow, and shovels that felt like buckets of cement.... nah.... forget it. I have some crap on the driveway out there right now, but I am leaving it for the sun, and warmer temps. Don't feel like messing with it. If I have to bid this winter "adieu" in the next week or two, That's fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The long range doesn't look nearly as cold on the 12z GFS as it did a few days ago. Looks as if a nice ridge could develop over the central part of the country, but still 200+ hours out so a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 18z GFS buries parts of IA with this next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Hawkeye and Cyclone should be watching this one. Maybe even DLL and gosaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Hawkeye and Cyclone should be watching this one. Maybe even DLL and gosaints. lol, you know you are too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Hawkeye and Cyclone should be watching this one. Maybe even DLL and gosaints. lol, you know you are too. Yep I'd be watching it if I were him: Seriously though, Tim hit it on the head the other day. The last storm went north, this one going south of us. Just not our year. Mottster, b-rent and crew will need to keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The long range doesn't look nearly as cold on the 12z GFS as it did a few days ago. Looks as if a nice ridge could develop over the central part of the country, but still 200+ hours out so a long way to go. I don't want an omega block setting up in the central U.S. I'm with Andy. I want a good western trough to develop mid March and start the svr season. Winter IMBY in Michiana was not all that notable this season. Could be wrong but I don't think we ever got down to zero. Snows were nickel and dime stuff locally. Bring on meteorological spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 lol, you know you are too. Yep I'd be watching it if I were him: gfs_namer_105_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Seriously though, Tim hit it on the head the other day. The last storm went north, this one going south of us. Just not our year. Mottster, b-rent and crew will need to keep an eye on it. Lol, yeah I guess I am! It better be powdery though if it does come this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Met Mark Ellinwood posted his thoughts in the central/western forum on spring tornado season. He expects a normal season, which would result in higher frequency than we had in 2012, but thinks the front end will be more active than later and on into summer because of the adverse effect of the Great Plains drought. However he said this was low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I like my call around the 10th if something like the 00z Euro plays out, quite the trough right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12z GGEM now joining the Euro in dropping a large upper trough into the West into the 8-10 day period. The UK also looks primed to do so based on extrapolation of what it has at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 12z GGEM now joining the Euro in dropping a large upper trough into the West into the 8-10 day period. The UK also looks primed to do so based on extrapolation of what it has at 144. I am terrible with severe weather. Does this thing have a chance?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I am terrible with severe weather. Does this thing have a chance?? Not for your backyard, if that's what you are referring to. More likely to be a winter storm in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Patiently waiting for the next viewing of the crystal ball of QVectorman..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I am amazed this thread is not getting action anymore, but I'll bump it and mention the active (likely wet) weekend and early next week that is on the horizon. Hopefully at least some backside snow or snow mixed in for many, but probably not a major snow given the lack of cold air connection on the backside on many of the models, including the Euro it looks like. Some of the GFS Ensembles look a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I am amazed this thread is not getting action anymore, but I'll bump it and mention the active (likely wet) weekend and early next week that is on the horizon. Hopefully at least some backside snow or snow mixed in for many, but probably not a major snow given the lack of cold air connection on the backside on many of the models, including the Euro it looks like. Some of the GFS Ensembles look a bit better. Meh. I am done with snow. At this point it is simply delaying the early opening of the golf courses around me. Bring on the rain and warmer temps... (Note: it is much easier to say this after receiving nearly a foot of snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Meh. I am done with snow. At this point it is simply delaying the early opening of the golf courses around me. Bring on the rain and warmer temps... (Note: it is much easier to say this after receiving nearly a foot of snow) Well, I know what you're talking about as we have had quite a backloaded winter here, so I'm satisfied if this is it. However, I am happy we aren't seeing a Morch so I think we might as well squeeze out whatever snow that can be squeezed this late winter/early spring period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Skilling's new 7 day had a 41 Saturday, a 40 Sunday and then back into the mid 30s with snow on Monday or Tuesday! It doesn't look like any above normal air will make it into this region north of I-80 at least in the next 7 days, in fact it looks like another cold push is coming. Rather have this cold now then have in come back in April. Might I add this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Skilling's new 7 day had a 41 Saturday, a 40 Sunday and then back into the mid 30s with snow on Monday or Tuesday! It doesn't look like any above normal air will make it into this region north of I-80 at least in the next 7 days, in fact it looks like another cold push is coming. Rather have this cold now then have in come back in April. Yes, March is a good time to have cold, followed by a normal or slightly warmer than normal April and May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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