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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 4


hm8

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Anyway, I'd watch the Mon-Tue system if I was in southern MN, IA, IL, S WI, N IN, MI...as most likely the block will be modeled too far SW, and the degree of phasing is TBD. Low may make it through S IL, S IN, etc. on its trek to the SE. After that, follows a cutter most likely. May be a good time for a day or two warm up for the winter tired...then back to seasonable/seasonably cool after. That's my thoughts at the moment...but it won't be completely boring (action wise) for most in the sub-forum. 

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Anyway, I'd watch the Mon-Tue system if I was in southern MN, IA, IL, S WI, N IN, MI...as most likely the block will be modeled too far SW, and the degree of phasing is TBD. Low may make it through S IL, S IN, etc. on its trek to the SE. After that, follows a cutter most likely. May be a good time for a day or two warm up for the winter tired...then back to seasonable/seasonably cool after. That's my thoughts at the moment...but it won't be completely boring (action wise) for most in the sub-forum. 

Almost every piece of guidance out there supports those thoughts

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Anyway, I'd watch the Mon-Tue system if I was in southern MN, IA, IL, S WI, N IN, MI...as most likely the block will be modeled too far SW, and the degree of phasing is TBD. Low may make it through S IL, S IN, etc. on its trek to the SE. After that, follows a cutter most likely. May be a good time for a day or two warm up for the winter tired...then back to seasonable/seasonably cool after. That's my thoughts at the moment...but it won't be completely boring (action wise) for most in the sub-forum. 

 

...and Ohio as well.  At least according to the euro we don't do too bad out here.   I guess it all depends...like you said....how bully the block is.   Right now I'm thinking the biggest reason for a miss here is everything rotates around us further to the west and south on it's way southeast.     If the block is weaker or further northeast then this could be a typical mauler that favors i-80 north.

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...and Ohio as well.  At least according to the euro we don't do too bad out here.   I guess it all depends...like you said....how bully the block is.   Right now I'm thinking the biggest reason for a miss here is everything rotates around us further to the west and south on it's way southeast.*     If the block is weaker or further northeast then this could be a typical mauler that favors i-80 north.

 

*see 12z gfs

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Maybe it's just my pinched nerve is making me grumpy, but, really, I'll pass on the next snow system, if the product it produces is anything like the slop that is my yard now..

 

Yeah, it's snow, but it's wet, heavy, and nasty.  Winter was kind of a disappointment as far as snow fall goes, but, really, I can do without these wet, heavy systems.  The ratios on that last one, were about 7:1 or so...  I was out side with the family, directing the less-than-enthusiastic shoveling the other night, and though... "If it was 2 degrees warmer, this would all be rain."  It was really depressing.  Now, contrast that to the GHD blizzard. I was outside shoveling during that, and loved every minute of it. It was cold, it was windy, the snow was the light powdery kind, that moves with very little effort.  Yeah, it was work, and it was cold, but, it was a "winter" snow.   Standing outside the other night, in temps that bordered right on 32, and with wet, heavy flakes that felt more like raindrops, and a snowblower that kept jamming from the heavy snow, and shovels that felt like buckets of cement.... nah.... forget it. 

 

I have some crap on the driveway out there right now, but I am leaving it for the sun, and warmer temps.  Don't feel like messing with it. 

 

If I have to bid this winter "adieu" in the next week or two,  That's fine with me. 

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Hawkeye and Cyclone should be watching this one. Maybe even DLL and gosaints.

 

 

lol, you know you are too. :P

 

Yep I'd be watching it if I were him:

 

 

 

 

Seriously though, Tim hit it on the head the other day. The last storm went north, this one going south of us. Just not our year. Mottster, b-rent and crew will need to keep an eye on it.

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The long range doesn't look nearly as cold on the 12z GFS as it did a few days ago.  Looks as if a nice ridge could develop over the central part of the country, but still 200+ hours out so a long way to go.  

I don't want an omega block setting up in the central U.S.  I'm with Andy.  I want a good western trough to develop mid March and start the svr season.  Winter IMBY in Michiana was not all that notable this season.  Could be wrong but I don't think we ever got down to zero.  Snows were nickel and dime stuff locally.  Bring on meteorological spring.

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lol, you know you are too. :P

 

 

Yep I'd be watching it if I were him:

 

 

attachicon.gifgfs_namer_105_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

 

Seriously though, Tim hit it on the head the other day. The last storm went north, this one going south of us. Just not our year. Mottster, b-rent and crew will need to keep an eye on it.

 

Lol, yeah I guess I am! It better be powdery though if it does come this far east.

 

post-2499-0-56051600-1362101584_thumb.pn

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Met Mark Ellinwood posted his thoughts in the central/western forum on spring tornado season.  He expects a normal season, which would result in higher frequency than we had in 2012, but thinks the front end will be more active than later and on into summer because of the adverse effect of the Great Plains drought.  However he said this was low confidence.

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12z GGEM now joining the Euro in dropping a large upper trough into the West into the 8-10 day period. The UK also looks primed to do so based on extrapolation of what it has at 144.

I am terrible with severe weather.  Does this thing have a chance??

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I am amazed this thread is not getting action anymore, but I'll bump it and mention the active (likely wet) weekend and early next week that is on the horizon.  Hopefully at least some backside snow or snow mixed in for many, but probably not a major snow given the lack of cold air connection on the backside on many of the models, including the Euro it looks like.  Some of the GFS Ensembles look a bit better.

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I am amazed this thread is not getting action anymore, but I'll bump it and mention the active (likely wet) weekend and early next week that is on the horizon. Hopefully at least some backside snow or snow mixed in for many, but probably not a major snow given the lack of cold air connection on the backside on many of the models, including the Euro it looks like. Some of the GFS Ensembles look a bit better.

Meh. I am done with snow. At this point it is simply delaying the early opening of the golf courses around me. Bring on the rain and warmer temps...

(Note: it is much easier to say this after receiving nearly a foot of snow)

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Meh. I am done with snow. At this point it is simply delaying the early opening of the golf courses around me. Bring on the rain and warmer temps...

(Note: it is much easier to say this after receiving nearly a foot of snow)

 

Well, I know what you're talking about as we have had quite a backloaded winter here, so I'm satisfied if this is it.  However, I am happy we aren't seeing a Morch so I think we might as well squeeze out whatever snow that can be squeezed this late winter/early spring period.

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Skilling's new 7 day had a 41 Saturday, a 40 Sunday and then back into the mid 30s with snow on Monday or Tuesday! It doesn't look like any above normal air will make it into this region north of I-80 at least in the next 7 days, in fact it looks like another cold push is coming. Rather have this cold now then have in come back in April.

 

Might I add this:

 

610temp.new.gif

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Skilling's new 7 day had a 41 Saturday, a 40 Sunday and then back into the mid 30s with snow on Monday or Tuesday! It doesn't look like any above normal air will make it into this region north of I-80 at least in the next 7 days, in fact it looks like another cold push is coming. Rather have this cold now then have in come back in April.

 

Yes, March is a good time to have cold, followed by a normal or slightly warmer than normal April and May.

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