Harry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 During just taking my dump I was thinking to myself you're talking to brick walls here. And then I read these new post when I got back that you just want it to be cold lol.. By March 7th the +PNA starts to relax the EPO is only slightly negative except for the Euro, and by then the NAO is starting to rise after tanking. All those things combined would spell a warming compared to the first week of March. I am not saying we are going to shooting way above average immediately but the signals are there that after March 7th we will start a warming trend. What is suggesting that though? You gotta look beyond the models. Look up some historical references if need be. Whatever Harry, we will see what happens by mid March. Yes we will. Again i am not saying what you are suggesting is impossible. I KNOW better. Issue is you have not given some good reasoning for why it will happen as you suggest. Try looking at it from beyond a model standpoint. Start with the global pattern and go from there. Thing is the Pac Jet has a huge influence on the pattern in the lower 48. We saw that last winter when it came crashing into the west coast of North America. THAT will keep the cold air intrusions at bay outside of AK. Without that it becomes much harder to keep the cold air out of the country. When the pac jet is weaker it is easier influenced by other things thus tends to be diverted alot more easier. Reason i posted the euro was to show how easily the models can change in the extended. I NEVER said that is what will happen. Try reading that post again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 What is suggesting that though? You gotta look beyond the models. Look up some historical references if need be. Yes we will. Again i am not saying what you are suggesting is impossible. I KNOW better. Issue is you have not given some good reasoning for why it will happen as you suggest. Try looking at it from beyond a model standpoint. Start with the global pattern and go from there. Thing is the Pac Jet has a huge influence on the pattern in the lower 48. We saw that last winter when it came crashing into the west coast of North America. THAT will keep the cold air intrusions at bay outside of AK. Without that it becomes much harder to keep the cold air out of the country. When the pac jet is weaker it is easier influenced by other things thus tends to be diverted alot more easier. Reason i posted the euro was to show how easily the models can change in the extended. I NEVER said that is what will happen. Try reading that post again. You mean the Pac Jet that is shown to crash into the NW US around March 5th, and has been shown to do this for days now? It is going to flood the US with Pacific air. Oh and yes you didn't say that it would happen but you are speaking as if it should happen. I gave my reasoning via the teleconnections and the MJO moving into phase 6 at the same time, you are just choosing not to agree with it. That is fine by me, I'll let time dictate who is correct then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I'd love some of this.. I've really missed my favorite month to ice fish these past 2 morches. Warm up the last ten days of March would be fine with me. It could stay below normal until june for all I care though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 You mean the Pac Jet that is shown to crash into the NW US around March 5th, and has been shown to do this for days now? It is going to flood the US with Pacific air. Oh and yes you didn't say that it would happen but you are speaking as if it should happen. I gave my reasoning via the teleconnections and the MJO moving into phase 6 at the same time, you are just choosing not to agree with it. That is fine by me, I'll let time dictate who is correct then. Still missing it. It has to do with the STRENGTH of the PAC jet.. Yes it can still come ashore ( and can even be temporarily strengthened by other forces ) but again if it is a overall weaker PAC jet then the chances are it gets diverted again. Yeah we will see i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Still missing it. It has to do with the STRENGTH of the PAC jet.. Yes it can still come ashore ( and can even be temporarily strengthened by other forces ) but again if it is a overall weaker PAC jet then the chances are it gets diverted again. Yeah we will see i suppose. No I understand that the strength matters, I just don't expect it to be weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I'd love some of this.. I've really missed my favorite month to ice fish these past 2 morches. Warm up the last ten days of March would be fine with me. It could stay below normal until june for all I care though. That would be brutal. My only interest in that would be seeing the possible records that might fall with that. Won't get any LES here with a northerly/nne flow like that. Personally i haven't cared for a while what the weather does. Just no repeat of last Morch considering the implications such patterns have further out and thus see the rest of spring ( crop failures galore ) and then the torrid summer. My recent interest was wanting to see some snow/moisture in the central/southern Plains to help the drought and perhaps help keep the death ridge in check come summer. If it snows alot great if not oh well. Just give me some action ( severe/winter/heavy rains etc ) is all i ask for. Dryness/drought sucks balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I'd love some of this.. I've really missed my favorite month to ice fish these past 2 morches. Warm up the last ten days of March would be fine with me. It could stay below normal until june for all I care though. That would be brutal. My only interest in that would be seeing the possible records that might fall with that. Won't get any LES here with a northerly/nne flow like that. Personally i haven't cared for a while what the weather does. Just no repeat of last Morch considering the implications such patterns have further out and thus see the rest of spring ( crop failures galore ) and then the torrid summer. My recent interest was wanting to see some snow/moisture in the central/southern Plains to help the drought and perhaps help keep the death ridge in check come summer. If it snows alot great if not oh well. Just give me some action ( severe/winter/heavy rains etc ) is all i ask for. Dryness/drought sucks balls. My interest is for an extended cold season for the north, to make up for the slow start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Don't like the warm up ideas starting March 7. GEFS hate it. Euro ensembles not a fan either. Posted the 384 hour 850 departures map from the 6z GEFS for fun, but that would be signaling doom for cold air retreating/washing itself out quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Targeting the 240 hour storm on the 12z Euro that's going off the GA coast. Good starting point 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The CFS weeklies are colder than normal through Mar 16, and then warm up the following week (just slightly mild in the north, more pronounced in the OV). However at this time Canada now looks colder. Not saying we are seeing a March 1960 redux, but those early spring/Morch calls we saw much of the winter, not to mention the 10-day stretch of record warmth LC was touting Feb 15-25 is nothing but a big old L-O-L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The CFS weeklies are colder than normal through Mar 16, and then warm up the following week (just slightly mild in the north, more pronounced in the OV). However at this time Canada now looks colder. Not saying we are seeing a March 1960 redux, but those early spring/Morch calls we saw much of the winter, not to mention the 10-day stretch of record warmth LC was touting Feb 15-25 is nothing but a big old L-O-L. Some people like to troll with Morch calls, they know the cold/snow misers get pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The CFS weeklies are colder than normal through Mar 16, and then warm up the following week (just slightly mild in the north, more pronounced in the OV). However at this time Canada now looks colder. Not saying we are seeing a March 1960 redux, but those early spring/Morch calls we saw much of the winter, not to mention the 10-day stretch of record warmth LC was touting Feb 15-25 is nothing but a big old L-O-L. FWIW.. euro weeklies has it below normal till the 18th and then normal from the 18th till the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I don't know why anybody would ever use truncated, heck post 168 hour data. Useless. The -EPO of the truncated ECMWF is real? How about the GFS's return to the -WPO vortex which really messes up its truncation. No use to fight over it. The models don't have the computing power to deal with all the particulers of upstream blocking, its resolvement and where we go from there. They look like drunks in the pub, slobbering all over each other with no real purpose. I think the -WPO vortex is the biggest threat. It could moderate temps, starting the 2nd week of March more than thought and moderation in March is far to warm for wintery weather(considering most of our highs by then are in the 40's outside the far nothern areas). You discounting a wintry scenario? Im shocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 One thing seems pretty likely...this is a pretty hostile looking pattern for getting any severe weather threat into this subforum in the next 10-14 days at least. Repeated eastern troughing is not good, and there would probably be moisture return issues even if we do get something to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 One thing seems pretty likely...this is a pretty hostile looking pattern for getting any severe weather threat into this subforum in the next 10-14 days at least. Repeated eastern troughing is not good, and there would probably be moisture return issues even if we do get something to cut. Yeah I'm not liking the prospects, looks to be quiet for a decent period of time here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 At least my long range thread has provided plenty of chances..... You're welcome. Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 6z GEFS in the long range. Not boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 On the positive note for spring svr wx prospects we will at least have a good reservoir of cold air for the southern jet to work with as we go into later March, April, and May unlike what we saw with the massive warmth and early svr season in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Models seem to be backing off the extreme march cold in the long run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I'm happy with the long range now. System on the 5th should be snow. Who knows what will happen by the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Thats 5th storm looks like weak sauce... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 blah...won't be any biking until at least late March for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I need this season to last under mid March, I have to put some space between my last trip and the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Looking much less drastic than a couple days ago..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 EURO now liking the early week clipper. Warms things up nicely by next weekend however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Much of the sub may be suffering from a hangover from tracking this latest storm for what seemed like an eternity. However, there looks to be another decent little system for early next week. Tonight's GFS looks pretty good for Iowa and much of IL. GEM looking like it will be nice as well. As a few others pointed out earlier, the 12z Euro looked good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Looks like severe potential for somewhere across the CONUS should increase by around the 10th and after, with the AO/NAO predicted to rise near neutral (and even positive in some cases) and the PNA forecasted to drop significantly across the model suite, this combination tends to be favorable, particularly the sharp drop in the PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 zzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 zzzzzzzzz 6-10 day 0z GEFS QPF 11-15 day 0z GEFS QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 zzzzzzzzz Starting to look that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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