Stebo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol, if we only could paint the weather as we wish it to be. I'd be approaching 60" of snow for the winter... Yes, but the region would be preparing for a huge severe outbreak per my wishes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Sorry but i cannot bring myself to excitement over a system tracking overhead or to the west/nw of here. As said above i'll believe it when i see it. The upper level low track is favorable, it's just that there's no ****ing cold air this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Morch! 2:23 NAEFS.png And so many were SO confident in a Morch. Not happening, and in fact March very well may be a cold month. Bring on those spring snowstorms. What the hell, it isnt UNHEARD of to have a March full of snowcover, at least til the end of the month (see 1960, 1965, 1978) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 And so many were SO confident in a Morch. Not happening, and in fact March very well may be a cold month. Bring on those spring snowstorms. What the hell, it isnt UNHEARD of to have a March full of snowcover, at least til the end of the month (see 1960, 1965, 1978) Always gotta remember our biggest snowstorm of all time happened in April, too, so we could still have a lot of winter left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 March snowstorms... not a rare beast in these parts. One nice thing is it will delay any thoughts of trees budding early this year. We know last year was a disaster in most of the upper midwest (apples/etc)>.. This year hopefully we get enough cold/snow to delay all of that until its normal blooming schedule. So while I'd love some warm air, it has its side effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 March snowstorms... not a rare beast in these parts. One nice thing is it will delay any thoughts of trees budding early this year. We know last year was a disaster in most of the upper midwest (apples/etc)>.. This year hopefully we get enough cold/snow to delay all of that until its normal blooming schedule. So while I'd love some warm air, it has its side effects. Yeah, last year was like a worst-case scenario for crops/gardens. Unprecedented early warmth, numerous spring frosts following, and then straight into the oven for 2 months with no precipitation whatsoever. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 March snowstorms... not a rare beast in these parts. One nice thing is it will delay any thoughts of trees budding early this year. We know last year was a disaster in most of the upper midwest (apples/etc)>.. This year hopefully we get enough cold/snow to delay all of that until its normal blooming schedule. So while I'd love some warm air, it has its side effects. I wouldn't be unhappy if gets warm early, as long as it stays that way. Obviously, we shouldn't be anywhere near last year. I'd take a + 1° to + 3° departure from about the 15th on through spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 March snowstorms... not a rare beast in these parts. One nice thing is it will delay any thoughts of trees budding early this year. We know last year was a disaster in most of the upper midwest (apples/etc)>.. This year hopefully we get enough cold/snow to delay all of that until its normal blooming schedule. So while I'd love some warm air, it has its side effects. Yeah, I would prefer to avoid paying $10 for a gallon of apple cider again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 If those neg. anomalies are derived from the type of pattern the 6z GFS paints in, I'd rather morch. Vortex spinning around the NW Atlantic locking in a cool and moist (but not stormy) flow. Day after day of leaden skies and drizzle but no threats. Fook that. I'd rather have a 582 dam heat ridge right over my head. That was too much last year. I loved the lower 70 degree weather, the days when it was hovering around 80 however were ridiculous. The body had no time to adjust from upper 30-lower 40 to summertime weather and it was rough. Couldn't golf either cause of a healing broken thumb, that was the worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Looks like the pattern slowly, surely falls apart. Most of the cold air gets ripped out of North America. Pretty ugly in Canada. high lat blocking....this has been portrayed for sometime now on lr models (cold US and mild CA for March). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 New CPC monthlies are in, BTW. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 Appears to suggest western troughing will setup eventually in March and then continue through April/May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 New CPC monthlies are in, BTW. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 Appears to suggest western troughing will setup eventually in March and then continue through April/May. Could be favorable for a much more active svr season than spring 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 New CPC monthlies are in, BTW. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1 Appears to suggest western troughing will setup eventually in March and then continue through April/May. Just in time for my trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Every CPC prediction is warm and then scales back the closer you get to the timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Apparently they're ignoring the CFS and the negative NAO/positive PNA that looks to set up shop for a while for their March prediction. GEFS even has a negative EPO in the long range. To me it looks like the first 10 days of March should average below normal for the eastern half of the US. The rest of the month is going to have to be really warm to verify those high warmer than normal probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Last year we were pretty cold early in March. Even had a snow event around the 4th or 5th. The real torch didn't arrive until the 14-15th, and after that it was full-on blow torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Apparently they're ignoring the CFS and the negative NAO/positive PNA that looks to set up shop for a while for their March prediction. GEFS even has a negative EPO in the long range. To me it looks like the first 10 days of March should average below normal for the eastern half of the US. The rest of the month is going to have to be really warm to verify those high warmer than normal probabilities. It very well could be, several models have the MJO wave reforming or moving into phase 6 for the early part of March, which would lead toward a warmer/wetter solution especially as you go later into the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Apparently they're ignoring the CFS and the negative NAO/positive PNA that looks to set up shop for a while for their March prediction. GEFS even has a negative EPO in the long range. To me it looks like the first 10 days of March should average below normal for the eastern half of the US. The rest of the month is going to have to be really warm to verify those high warmer than normal probabilities. Fully agree. I am sticking to my call that we don't see any meaningful stretches of above normal temps ( torch like stuff ) till perhaps April at the earliest. At best a day or two shot IF we are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 It very well could be, several models have the MJO wave reforming or moving into phase 6 for the early part of March, which would lead toward a warmer/wetter solution especially as you go later into the month. MJO signal may not be strong enough to offset some other stuff. As said before typically when the QBO switches in Feb/March ( as it will do ) the pattern we have ends up sticking around for a while longer and in some cases a good while longer. See 2007-08 for the most recent example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 MJO signal may not be strong enough to offset some other stuff. As said before typically when the QBO switches in Feb/March ( as it will do ) the pattern we have ends up sticking around for a while longer and in some cases a good while longer. See 2007-08 for the most recent example. Agreed. I'm not ruling out March ending up above normal, but the CPC map as drawn would suggest a very warm March for the eastern half of the CONUS. I'd doubt we end up well above normal if the first 10 days are well below normal. Last year did have a few cold days but also several very warm days in the first 10 so it already averaged above normal before the all out torch arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 MJO signal may not be strong enough to offset some other stuff. As said before typically when the QBO switches in Feb/March ( as it will do ) the pattern we have ends up sticking around for a while longer and in some cases a good while longer. See 2007-08 for the most recent example. It may not be strong enough, but there have been hints of warming on the models after March 8th so it isn't without merit. Realistically the large gyre that encompasses the East through the first week of March can only last for so long, there really isn't anything to signify prolonged cold after that, especially with Canada warming, blocking off any Arctic plunges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Every CPC prediction is warm and then scales back the closer you get to the timeframe. Really? May I see some proof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 It may not be strong enough, but there have been hints of warming on the models after March 8th so it isn't without merit. Realistically the large gyre that encompasses the East through the first week of March can only last for so long, there really isn't anything to signify prolonged cold after that, especially with Canada warming, blocking off any Arctic plunges. How long now have the models been hinting at a warm up in the extended range ( especially those that show a westcoast trough ) that keeps getting pushed back? You follow me? Not saying it is impossible. But yeah i would be real skeptical of any models showing warmer times in the extended over this region. fwiw the 00z euro goes nuts with a -EPO. This would be one way to re-open the Arctic doors and flood most of the country with cold that would be hanging around these parts well past the 8th and or atleast till mid month. Thus one way to replace the big gyre with more sustained cold. NOT that this will happen. Just pointing out how quick the models can change their tune in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 How long now have the models been hinting at a warm up in the extended range ( especially those that show a westcoast trough ) that keeps getting pushed back? You follow me? Not saying it is impossible. But yeah i would be real skeptical of any models showing warmer times in the extended over this region. fwiw the 00z euro goes nuts with a -EPO. This would be one way to re-open the Arctic doors and flood most of the country with cold that would be hanging around these parts well past the 8th and or atleast till mid month. Thus one way to replace the big gyre with more sustained cold. NOT that this will happen. Just pointing out how quick the models can change their tune in the extended. It hasn't been pushed back, it has been consistently showing it around March 7th since coming into range. Look I understand you want it to stay cold and have snow chances I am just looking at this realistically and that we won't stay cold all month if we start out with that gyre sitting over the East and high latitude blocking. One run of the Euro showing a -EPO isn't enough evidence to sway me right now, if it were to stay consistent then it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 It hasn't been pushed back, it has been consistently showing it around March 7th since coming into range. Look I understand you want it to stay cold and have snow chances I am just looking at this realistically and that we won't stay cold all month if we start out with that gyre sitting over the East and high latitude blocking. One run of the Euro showing a -EPO isn't enough evidence to sway me right now, if it were to stay consistent then it would. Has nothing to do with what i want. You are looking at it from wanting some severe wx if you wanna go that route. Can still get that even during a mostly below normal month. I have stated my case several times for my thinking. The QBO has a effect on the pac jet. Read up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Has nothing to do with what i want. You are looking at it from wanting some severe wx if you wanna go that route. Can still get that even during a mostly below normal month. I have stated my case several times for my thinking. The QBO has a effect on the pac jet. Read up on it. Harry you mention the QBO like it is the be all end all, it didn't work out last winter even when you thought it would. There are other forces than just the QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Has nothing to do with what i want. You are looking at it from wanting some severe wx if you wanna go that route. Can still get that even during a mostly below normal month. I have stated my case several times for my thinking. The QBO has a effect on the pac jet. Read up on it. During just taking my dump I was thinking to myself you're talking to brick walls here. And then I read these new post when I got back that you just want it to be cold lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Harry you mention the QBO like it is the be all end all, it didn't work out last winter even when you thought it would. There are other forces than just the QBO. Says the guy who follows on the coattails of others. Need we revisit your so called calls? You wanna go this route i have no problem embarrassing the hell out of you. Now mind showing me where i said it would work out last winter? I made no outlook. Try again. You are being a complete douche now but hey you wanna dish it you better prepared to receive it. And unlike you i do have a full understanding of other drivers in the weather. Lets see you make one call on your own and explain your reasoning. I'll be waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 By March 7th the +PNA starts to relax, the EPO is only slightly negative except for the Euro, and by then the NAO is starting to rise after tanking. All those things combined would spell a warming compared to the first week of March. I am not saying we are going to shooting way above average immediately but the signals are there that after March 7th we will start a warming trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Says the guy who follows on the coattails of others. Need we revisit your so called calls? You wanna go this route i have no problem embarrassing the hell out of you. Now mind showing me where i said it would work out last winter? I made no outlook. Try again. You are being a complete douche now but hey you wanna dish it you better prepared to receive it. Whatever Harry, we will see what happens by mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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