Stebo Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'd really enjoy another warm march :/ Gradual warming is fine with me, it would allow for more severe longer through spring. Last year we were like a bottle rocket for the region. April/May were pretty much non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Looks like the polar vortex shifts away from our continent, but snow cover seems to lock in the cold... No idea how Michigan ends up with the same temps as northern Canada. Already mentioned in the thread, it is due to high latitude blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Gradual warming is fine with me, it would allow for more severe longer through spring. Last year we were like a bottle rocket for the region. April/May were pretty much non-existent. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Which doesnt necessarily make sense if the MJO is in 4/5 atleast in my opinion. That is only a part of the puzzle though. If the Atlantic is favorable then it might negate prolonged warm spells? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 While we have been doing good adding up the snowfall, it has been powdery and fluffy. From a "moisture" perspective rain always has more moisture than snow anyway. But we definitely have not had a drynamic moisture-laden snowstorm yet. If anytime is the time for that, its early and late season, as we near March in an active pattern, cant dislike our chances. Top 10 systems Dec 1-present ranked by LIQUID precip amount 01.) 0.90" pcp, 1.1" snw --- Dec 20/21 02.) 0.85" pcp, T snw --- Jan 13 03.) 0.73" pcp --- Jan 11 04.) 0.67" pcp --- Jan 29 05.) 0.54" pcp, 2.2" snw --- Jan 27/28 06.) 0.43" pcp, 6.2" snw --- Dec 26/27 07.) 0.41" pcp --- Dec 15/16 08.) 0.30" pcp, T snw --- Jan 30 09.) 0.27" pcp, 2.5" snw --- Feb 9 10.) 0.20" pcp --- Dec 8 Top 10 systems ranked by SNOW amount 01.) 6.2", 0.43" pcp --- Dec 26/27 02.) 3.4", 0.14" pcp --- Jan 31/Feb 1 03.) 3.3", 0.13" pcp --- Feb 4 04.) 3.2", 0.13" pcp --- Jan 25/26 05.) 2.5", 0.27" pcp --- Feb 8 06.) 2.4", 0.09" pcp --- Feb 16/17 07.) 2.3", 0.09" pcp --- Feb 2 08.) 2.2", 0.13" pcp --- Dec 29 08.) 2.2", 0.54" pcp --- Jan 27/28 10.) 1.5", 0.06" pcp --- Jan 21 Got me thinking of how the snow ratio average for this season would compare to most. Since there has been so much fluff to the snow it would exagerate the snow amounts this season to normal while in fact we are below average WRT liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Got me thinking of how the snow ratio average for this season would compare to most. Since there has been so much fluff to the snow it would exagerate the snow amounts this season to normal while in fact we are below average WRT liquid. There really is no formula for this, other than the average precip and average snow for each month. A general snow ratio average for this region is 12-14:1, which is going to include some 5-1 snows and some 25-1 snows any given winter. We have had extra fluff/powder galore this winter, but snow is snow. You should see some of the snow-liquid ratios in the snowbelts. This is why climate stations record liquid precip, snowfall, and snow depth. Trends in settling/compacting of snow in relation to the temperature can give a general idea of what kind of snowpack (dense or fluffy) was on the ground). Really, its powder events like Dec 26 that would have the highest impact in terms of balancing snow/liquid. Lets take Feb 5th for example, 3.3" of snow on just 0.13" water. It was a cold fluffy snow that stuck to everything, so shoveling 3" of snow off your driveway was a must. But lets say you get a sloppy wet 3" snow on 0.50" water that sticks mainly to the grass and leaves a thin layer of slush on the sidewalk. Its a much higher content snow but you dont even really need to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 0z GFS cooks up a special one for the 26-27th. Congrats Toronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 0z GFS cooks up a special one for the 26-27th. Congrats Toronto! Typical evolution of a snowstorm for us. Textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Typical evolution of a snowstorm for us. Textbook. I'd watch this system as it could have a decent Atlantic feed with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'd watch this system as it could have a decent Atlantic feed with it Stormiest pattern of the year is so far 0 for 1 for us, and once Friday's turd log moves through, 0 for 2. I'm not saying what lays beyond won't work out, but brace yourself for the worst. What I wrote above to Tim was sarcasm. That storm is a thread the needle type event for us to the extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GFS delivers the goods for the 2nd storm here. Chances of happening very low..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GFS delivers the goods for the 2nd storm here. Chances of happening very low..... The Euro showing this being a good storm as well, gave MKE about a half inch of QPF mostly or all snow on its 0z run. Probably more of an advisory up by you, but you shouldn't have to worry about precip type with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 DTX and GRR both talking about next week's system trending warmer which will cause precip. type issues... at this point, both are leading a heightened probability for a "cold rain".WHAT A SURPRISE!Could of swore I read GRR AFD yesterday morning and WDM was talking about February ending on a "Much snowier and stormy pattern across the Lower Great Lakes"... hmmm snowier? Not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I wouldn't jump off any cliffs yet. There's a lot of action to come, and the models are going to struggle. Well, they are already struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I agree... Just having a hard time thinking our pattern will change from virtually dry/warm to colder and wet.Like you said there's alot of action to come. Plus a good shot at severe weather within the next 30-45 days in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I wouldn't jump off any cliffs yet. There's a lot of action to come, and the models are going to struggle. Well, they are already struggling. Early cliff jumping is this regions forte it would see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 DTX and GRR both talking about next week's system trending warmer which will cause precip. type issues... at this point, both are leading a heightened probability for a "cold rain". WHAT A SURPRISE! Could of swore I read GRR AFD yesterday morning and WDM was talking about February ending on a "Much snowier and stormy pattern across the Lower Great Lakes"... hmmm snowier? Not so much. Actually if anything it looks like next weeks storm has trended colder for us. LR forecasts are very vague from DTX/GRR usually. They do more detail in short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I agree... Just having a hard time thinking our pattern will change from virtually dry/warm to colder and wet. Like you said there's alot of action to come. Plus a good shot at severe weather within the next 30-45 days in this pattern. We must live in different states. Because this side of MI has NOT been in a dry/warm pattern. Tons of action, which Im sure will include rain, snow, and severe in the coming month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I wouldn't jump off any cliffs yet. There's a lot of action to come, and the models are going to struggle. Well, they are already struggling. Considering where he is from ( my hood ) i can't say i blame him. Even though i know the potential for something decent here imby is there i have been ready to stick a fork in this sh!t stain of a winter for a long time. Thus count me amongst those who will believe it when i see it. For the first time ever ( saying this before March 1st ) i am fully ready for the winter to be done! Ofcourse i know that is not gonna happen but still one can still make a wish. lol I agree... Just having a hard time thinking our pattern will change from virtually dry/warm to colder and wet. Like you said there's alot of action to come. Plus a good shot at severe weather within the next 30-45 days in this pattern. You mean cold/dry and then warmer/wet for a day or two and then back to cold/dry and repeat.. As for severe wx in these parts in that time frame i wouldn't get your hopes high. Not with the NAO looking the way it does ( very negative ) into the unforeseeable future. Actually if anything it looks like next weeks storm has trended colder for us. LR forecasts are very vague from DTX/GRR usually. They do more detail in short term. Sorry but i cannot bring myself to excitement over a system tracking overhead or to the west/nw of here. As said above i'll believe it when i see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Morch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Morch! 2:23 NAEFS.png If those neg. anomalies are derived from the type of pattern the 6z GFS paints in, I'd rather morch. Vortex spinning around the NW Atlantic locking in a cool and moist (but not stormy) flow. Day after day of leaden skies and drizzle but no threats. Fook that. I'd rather have a 582 dam heat ridge right over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 If those neg. anomalies are derived from the type of pattern the 6z GFS paints in, I'd rather morch. Vortex spinning around the NW Atlantic locking in a cool and moist (but not stormy) flow. Day after day of leaden skies and drizzle but no threats. Fook that. I'd rather have a 582 dam heat ridge right over my head. Take it to the complaint thread. But seriously, I don't think it'll be as stormy as what we're going through now...but it won't be bone dry either. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yeah I will pass on a pattern like what is being advertised for the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Take it to the complaint thread. But seriously, I don't think it'll be as stormy as what we're going through now...but it won't be bone dry either. We'll see. i promised not to use that thread after my Feb 8 miracle. But the inner weenie's still gotta vent so I find creative ways to circumvent my pledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Yeah I will pass on a pattern like what is being advertised for the long range. lol, if we only could paint the weather as we wish it to be. I'd be approaching 60" of snow for the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 No early spring, that is for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 lol, if we only could paint the weather as we wish it to be. I'd be approaching 60" of snow for the winter... 60"? That's it? For the season? I think you mean 60" from one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 60"? That's it? For the season? I think you mean 60" from one storm. I'm realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 No early spring, that is for sure... Farmers breathing a sigh of relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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