wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 12z Euro cuts the 25-26th storm through Nebraska again. I probably should give up that one. And another storm coming down the pike for the 28th. Punt, pass, or kick? None of the above, "forget". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 12z Euro cuts the 25-26th storm through Nebraska again. I probably should give up that one. And another storm coming down the pike for the 28th. Punt, pass, or kick? Surprised you even asked that question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12z Euro is impressive with that storm around day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12z Euro is impressive with that storm around day 9. I am not very good at reading the maps, but it's an impressive storm with a good track, but isn't it too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I am not very good at reading the maps, but it's an impressive storm with a good track, but isn't it too warm? For OH it is, verbatim. For those on the cold side, 2m temps are warm per the Euro...but I wouldn't put much faith in that exact depiction. That's a wet snowstorm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I am not very good at reading the maps, but it's an impressive storm with a good track, but isn't it too warm? Looks like it would be cold enough for a band of snow, but I was more focused on the larger scale system characteristics, how it evolves, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 For OH it is, verbatim. For those on the cold side, 2m temps are warm per the Euro...but I wouldn't put much faith in that exact depiction. That's a wet snowstorm signal. Thank you! Slap in the face if we FINALLY get a good track, but there is no fresh cold air coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Looks like it would be cold enough for a band of snow, but I was more focused on the larger scale system characteristics, how it evolves, etc. Yeah, that's a pretty dynamic evolution. Somebody would get nailed if that comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 There are some pretty good model signals for something going down late next week. Whether it's more of an east coast threat or something that has more of an affect on this subforum remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 There are some pretty good model signals for something going down late next week. Whether it's more of an east coast threat or something that has more of an affect on this subforum remains to be seen. You can correct me if i'm wrong, but it seems that the storm around the 25-27 that heads to the MW/GL and occludes and hangs around will have a pretty big impact on this storm depending on exactly where in the MW/GL it decides to hang around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Chicago- Feb 25th storm...12z Euro for this area??? 12z GFS looked pretty wet and mostly snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 50 degrees and rain for Indianapolis where I will be on Monday Feb. 25th. Bank on it. That is their current forecast. This storm will cut north and west like the 21st and 22nd storm. Agree that we want precip over the plains to moisten them up to enhance svr prospects later this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Chicago- Feb 25th storm...12z Euro for this area??? 12z GFS looked pretty wet and mostly snow... Snow. Looks like a 4-6" type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The key to the potential March 1st system may be where the early week system tracks...the op Euro clears it out and allows heights to rise over the east the last day of February and cuts the storm up into Ohio...while the ensembles have the remnant cut off crap sitting around over the upper Lakes, and suggest any storm would track farther south. Regardless, the models are holding onto a west based -NAO into early March, and are hinting at at least a neutral if not + PNA as well and have lost the idea of a persistent Alaskan/GOA low developing for now...which may be the right idea if very active convection currently just west of the dateline can push east somewhat over the next week...a more neutral or + PNA would alleviate concerns of an early occlusion. I'm slated to get a ride back home to northern Ohio on Friday the first, so look for a track a bit east of the 12z Euro to verify nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Regarding the end of Feb/early Mar storm...the 18z GFS solution appears to have shades of that long-lasting weird wraparound L from late feb 2010? SSC? Or am I seeing things lol? Just interesting to see that, dont see it very often, even in fantasy land runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Regarding the end of Feb/early Mar storm...the 18z GFS solution appears to have shades of that long-lasting weird wraparound L from late feb 2010? SSC? Or am I seeing things lol? Just interesting to see that, dont see it very often, even in fantasy land runs. The 18z GFS takes the March 1 storm across the deep south and way out to sea. The system across the GL and OV is stll the 25-27 storm still hanging around I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Regarding the end of Feb/early Mar storm...the 18z GFS solution appears to have shades of that long-lasting weird wraparound L from late feb 2010? SSC? Or am I seeing things lol? Just interesting to see that, dont see it very often, even in fantasy land runs. The March in like a lion storm is a separate storm the EURO blows up around D10 that the GFS completely quashes. The earlier storm you're referencing is a little different from the Feb '10 storm. That was a miller-A that retrograded westerly around NYC. 18z GFS is an W-E meandering cutoff low that gets stuck beneath a rex-block. In any case, it's pointless at this point to try and even come up with a vague itinerary wrt all these storms. It's going to be active though. That much is apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The March in like a lion storm is a separate storm the EURO blows up around D10 that the GFS completely quashes. The earlier storm you're referencing is a little different from the Feb '10 storm. That was a miller-A that retrograded westerly around NYC. 18z GFS is an W-E meandering cutoff low that gets stuck beneath a rex-block. In any case, it's pointless at this point to try and even come up with a vague itinerary wrt all these storms. It's going to be active though. That much is apparent. It has been very active and unsettled for the last month here, but it hasnt been stormy. If that makes sense. Lots of flakes, lots of brushing and shoveling, brief whiteouts...but nothing really stormy. No heavy amounts of liquid (rain or snow) in the gauge on any given day. Dare I say we may be entering the stormiest part of this winter? Doesnt guarentee results for any one area, but it certainly looks to remain active, and if moisture can get involved....not to mention this is a good time of year for those of us north of I80 to get a good snowstorm, historically speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Snow. Looks like a 4-6" type of deal. Thanks... Could be a snowy next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 A lot of long range models showing Canada torching while the lower 48 stays normal to below... What gives? How is that? Snow storms? Pacific Jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 A lot of long range models showing Canada torching while the lower 48 stays normal to below... What gives? How is that? Snow storms? Pacific Jet? Happens all the time. High latitude blocking = higher heights = warmer temps up north. Look at an H5 composite plot for 2009-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 A lot of long range models showing Canada torching while the lower 48 stays normal to below... What gives? How is that? Snow storms? Pacific Jet? The CFS has this same look for the month of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The CFS has this same look for the month of March. Which doesnt necessarily make sense if the MJO is in 4/5 atleast in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Which doesnt necessarily make sense if the MJO is in 4/5 atleast in my opinion. meaning you would think we would have a warm not cold March? Or Canada would be cold not warm? Keep in mind its not as if its saying Canada will be warmer than the US, just departures from normal, ie the temperature gradient wont be as extreme as it usually is. All I know is all winter long the CFS has March blazing away in the CONUS, and recent runs keep trending colder and colder to the point the Plains are very cold and we are near to slightly below normal. Only New England grazes by with a mild March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 "Torch" in Canada is relative though. Still plenty cold enough. Mike has it right though with the blocking. Of course, at some point the cold over us will grow stale...but that's at least two weeks down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It would be nice to see one Pacific moisture induced storm which produces snow rather than rain on the leading edge. All of the moisture laiden storms have been rain makers so far this winter from DTW east, from what I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I get that it will still be cold in Canada, just a lot less cold then normal... Looking like a chilly March as of right now... going to be a real shocker from last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'd really enjoy another warm march :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I get that it will still be cold in Canada, just a lot less cold then normal... Looking like a chilly March as of right now... going to be a real shocker from last March. Looks like the polar vortex shifts away from our continent, but snow cover seems to lock in the cold... No idea how Michigan ends up with the same temps as northern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It would be nice to see one Pacific moisture induced storm which produces snow rather than rain on the leading edge. All of the moisture laiden storms have been rain makers so far this winter from DTW east, from what I can recall. While we have been doing good adding up the snowfall, it has been powdery and fluffy. From a "moisture" perspective rain always has more moisture than snow anyway. But we definitely have not had a drynamic moisture-laden snowstorm yet. If anytime is the time for that, its early and late season, as we near March in an active pattern, cant dislike our chances. Top 10 systems Dec 1-present ranked by LIQUID precip amount 01.) 0.90" pcp, 1.1" snw --- Dec 20/21 02.) 0.85" pcp, T snw --- Jan 13 03.) 0.73" pcp --- Jan 11 04.) 0.67" pcp --- Jan 29 05.) 0.54" pcp, 2.2" snw --- Jan 27/28 06.) 0.43" pcp, 6.2" snw --- Dec 26/27 07.) 0.41" pcp --- Dec 15/16 08.) 0.30" pcp, T snw --- Jan 30 09.) 0.27" pcp, 2.5" snw --- Feb 9 10.) 0.20" pcp --- Dec 8 Top 10 systems ranked by SNOW amount 01.) 6.2", 0.43" pcp --- Dec 26/27 02.) 3.4", 0.14" pcp --- Jan 31/Feb 1 03.) 3.3", 0.13" pcp --- Feb 4 04.) 3.2", 0.13" pcp --- Jan 25/26 05.) 2.5", 0.27" pcp --- Feb 8 06.) 2.4", 0.09" pcp --- Feb 16/17 07.) 2.3", 0.09" pcp --- Feb 2 08.) 2.2", 0.13" pcp --- Dec 29 08.) 2.2", 0.54" pcp --- Jan 27/28 10.) 1.5", 0.06" pcp --- Jan 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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