Harry Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Roger Smith, Jan 28th: "Expect record high temperatures for most of a week to ten day period around mid-February to 25th or so. Reason is from research strong indications of a major height building episode over the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. at that time. Overall reason (since that's really just the same prediction in upper air terms) has to do with solar system magnetic field structure and earth's approach to J-1 field sector. Analogues include 1930 and 1954 which both set numerous record highs in February." MASSIVE. FAIL. it would be one thing to forecast a mild period (which is not happening anyway) but to forecast 7-10 days of widespread record highs? Lets just join the JB club of forecasting. I tried telling people a while back that extended torches were not happening. Even short lived ( 2-3 day ) would be hard to come by but not impossible ofcourse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It's cutting. Omaha is going to need the National Guard to help dig out after these storms. Tis the season. Or at least it's rapidly approaching. Hope ORD gets a little bit of love though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Tis the season. Or at least it's rapidly approaching. Hope ORD gets a little bit of love though. It cuts over DBQ. No soup for ORD. Even LSE rains. MSP, OMA, etc on the other hand...buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Pretty good agreement though among the 12z Euro and GGEM for that second storm. If there is such a thing 168+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I tried telling people a while back that extended torches were not happening. Even short lived ( 2-3 day ) would be hard to come by but not impossible ofcourse. yea that sucks. Instead it's storms cutting to my west over and over and over again with seasonable temps and rain. A torch was wishful thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The pattern from days 6-14 is still potentially workable for much of this sub-forum... However, with the -NAO located where it is on the above Euro image, it may not stop storms from cutting initially...with a -PNA, unless we can get higher heights near Greenland and a better 50/50 low storms will cut initially into the lakes before running into the block and sitting and slowly spinning down for days. We also need to keep the storms from occluding immediately after they eject into the Plains, although that is handled on more of a storm by storm basis. The GWO numbers and mountain torque numbers that I used in my long post last weekend, and got somewhat excited over, were conveniently revised early last week and look much more La Nina-ish now. Convection is active from Africa east through much of the Indian Ocean and towards Australia, however with a much more La Nina like global wind pattern now I'm not sure how easily this convection may try to propagate into the Pacific. The GFS and Euro both say no and kill the MJO for the next week and a half to two weeks, which would likely allow the -PNA to continue...although we will have to watch the convection closely this week and determine if those forecasts will come to fruition. If we don't see favorable MJO forcing resume by early March the -NAO will eventually begin to weaken and the -PNA will eventually work its magic and warm the region up as we head into March. I'm not sure that would mean the end of winter, especially across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, however we will need to watch and see if we can get the troughing out west to reverse itself before we get too deep into March. Still plenty of time to watch for that either way, and we probably will have more storm chances to track through the end of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Euro Ensembles keeps hope alive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I will say one thing, even though disappointment levels have been pretty high the last several weeks, it's been active enough to at least have something to track. The storm around the 25th definitely looks interesting. Hopefully things trend the opposite way the storm for the 21st did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Euro Ensembles keeps hope alive: The potential is certainly there with this just like it was there with the 21-23 potential...but as I mentioned above we will need sufficient NAO blocking in the right place to force the storm track a little farther south, and not have the energy come screaming out into the Plains so strongly that it occludes well west. Hopefully we temper our expectations with this one as even I probably got too excited for the late week storm (which will still be fun for places mainly west of the Mississippi) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The potential is certainly there with this just like it was there with the 21-23 potential...but as I mentioned above we will need sufficient NAO blocking in the right place to force the storm track a little farther south, and not have the energy come screaming out into the Plains so strongly that it occludes well west. Hopefully we temper our expectations with this one as even I probably got too excited for the late week storm (which will still be fun for places mainly west of the Mississippi) Isnt snowstormcanuck referring to this same storm in the map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Isnt snowstormcanuck referring to this same storm in the map? He's referring to the next one...that image appears to be valid on the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 He's referring to the next one...that image appears to be valid on the 25th. Got ya. Thx. Weird though how its date stamped the 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Hideous. On the contrary. Loving the look of that for more drought-busting Plains snow and it's a chance to get the severe season off on the right foot. The last thing we want is another summer death ridge. More power to this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I agree with navy. At this point, I'm rooting for more plains snow events. Since I'm going back out there in May, I'd rather have more moisture out there for potential storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 On the contrary. Loving the look of that for more drought-busting Plains snow and it's a chance to get the severe season off on the right foot. The last thing we want is another summer death ridge. More power to this solution. First let me get to 40" on the season. Then you send cutter after cutter through DSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 On the contrary. Loving the look of that for more drought-busting Plains snow and it's a chance to get the severe season off on the right foot. The last thing we want is another summer death ridge. More power to this solution. I completely agree with this, as much as I would love to get to average here with snow, there are bigger fish to fry this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I completely agree with this, as much as I would love to get to average here with snow, there are bigger fish to fry this late in the season. I honestly dont see that as a problem, getting to average. Especially this winter the way we have been lucking out. The question is, will Dec 26/27 be the only significant snowstorm of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Nice Canada torch showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 So -5 instead of -10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 I honestly dont see that as a problem, getting to average. Especially this winter the way we have been lucking out. The question is, will Dec 26/27 be the only significant snowstorm of the season? I've enjoyed the LE we've been getting way more than that storm...I say lets do more of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 0z GFS, GGEM, and looks like the Euro, signaling another plains and western Midwest snowstorm for the 25-26th. Can't catch a break here in the middle. EDIT: might need to scratch the western MW part. Euro going way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I honestly dont see that as a problem, getting to average. Especially this winter the way we have been lucking out. The question is, will Dec 26/27 be the only significant snowstorm of the season? I meant with this one storm, not in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 0z Euro ensemble mean doesn't like the day 7-8 storm cutting through Nebraska. Verbatim, they have a track that is good for places like the QC, N IL, and WI. Of course, the op models (Euro, GFS, GGEM) definitely like the far western track. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Man that's a convoluted upper level setup the GFS has through 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Man that's a convoluted upper level setup the GFS has through 180. You aren't kidding. We're entering silly season with the models. Medium range threats will probably have interesting run to run changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Man that's a convoluted upper level setup the GFS has through 180. Yeah at least one thing is certain, it doesn't look quiet anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 0z Euro ensemble mean doesn't like the day 7-8 storm cutting through Nebraska. Verbatim, they have a track that is good for places like the QC, N IL, and WI. Of course, the op models (Euro, GFS, GGEM) definitely like the far western track. We'll see. 12z ggem changed it's tune at 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 12z ggem changed it's tune at 180. Nice. Yep, silly model season is arriving. Thanks for the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 12z Euro cuts the 25-26th storm through Nebraska again. I probably should give up that one. And another storm coming down the pike for the 28th. Punt, pass, or kick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.