Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Man that run of the GFS was on steroids, non stop action from 2 1/2 days from now until the end of the run. 6 troughs/systems pass through the area with a 7th moving into the SW by end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah, the 0z GFS was an improvement essentially across the board over the 12z...develops a strong -NAO in the long range, and doesn't develop as much Alaskan ridging...that's important because it allows higher amplitude energy to continue diving into the west and the -NAO keeps the east from torching, keeping a huge chunk of the subforum in the game into March...maybe wouldn't be particularly productive IMBY but would be fun to track a pattern such as what the GFS showed. The Euro has been persistent lately in trying to develop a -NAO about a week out, so it is nice to see some better agreement from the GFS in that regard...we'll see about the Alaskan low, it has been shown fairly consistently to make at least a brief return around the 20th...with the MJO not propagating into the Pacific as well as I thought, and with increasing convection from the Indian Ocean back into the Atlantic, a -PNA can be anticipated as that certainly isn't where we want the convection for a +PNA...keep the EPO from going positive and keep the NAO and we can still make it work, especially here well west of the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This was the pattern and week I was referring to a couple weeks ago. LOL Also like the high in the way at 140W. I think it will do a nice job of splitting this strong xt-RWT at 170W in to several pieces with pockets of energy slipping underneath and emerging as pulses along the southern jet that could possible end up phasing with their siblings that took the northern jet on the 21/22 time frame. Also marked out xt-RWT over Africa that I think will be a player come March 6/7 that matches up with a Mtn. torque event meaning colder air should be over the region. I think it could be a decent storm for someone. wed.jpg Your play by day synopsis is almost too accurate. Reading your posts most of the time is up and beyond my understanding but truly enjoyable and educational. In time I hope to better unerstand the complex atmosphere and the way it works. Till then thanks for the free tutorials. As for all the negative gibberish on the forum makes it harder to weed out the good from bad. I hate scanning over 10 posts which have absolutly no substance to them. Its like reading something from Ke$ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Man that run of the GFS was on steroids, non stop action from 2 1/2 days from now until the end of the run. 6 troughs/systems pass through the area with a 7th moving into the SW by end of the run. Whoa! Much more interesting than the weather this week. I guess the jet streams were getting reloaded again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Your play by day synopsis is almost too accurate. Reading your posts most of the time is up and beyond my understanding but truly enjoyable and educational. In time I hope to better unerstand the complex atmosphere and the way it works. Till then thanks for the free tutorials. As for all the negative gibberish on the forum makes it harder to weed out the good from bad. I hate scanning over 10 posts which have absolutly no substance to them. Its like reading something from Ke$ha. I think Hoosier deleted them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Man that run of the GFS was on steroids, non stop action from 2 1/2 days from now until the end of the run. 6 troughs/systems pass through the area with a 7th moving into the SW by end of the run. Even the system for tomorrow has more substance for the DTW region. Only if the temps weren't so warm... If the gfs was not to flinch and the whole run came true(384hrs) how much snow would fall in dtw?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Your play by day synopsis is almost too accurate. Reading your posts most of the time is up and beyond my understanding but truly enjoyable and educational. In time I hope to better unerstand the complex atmosphere and the way it works. Till then thanks for the free tutorials. As for all the negative gibberish on the forum makes it harder to weed out the good from bad. I hate scanning over 10 posts which have absolutly no substance to them. Its like reading something from Ke$ha. Thanks! Is there anything I can do to make it more readable? That's one of the main reasons I stay away from posting GWO and AAM charts b/c I think it doesn't really add value to the forecast unless ppl know what they are looking for. Otherwise I just try to post the dates with a brief temp trend to go along with the pattern. IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Even the system for tomorrow has more substance for the DTW region. Only if the temps weren't so warm... If the gfs was not to flinch and the whole run came true(384hrs) how much snow would fall in dtw?? Through the 16 days, probably around a foot completely verbatim from that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thanks! Is there anything I can do to make it more readable? That's one of the main reasons I stay away from posting GWO and AAM charts b/c I think it doesn't really add value to the forecast unless ppl know what they are looking for. Otherwise I just try to post the dates with a brief temp trend to go along with the pattern. IDK For example.. how many people here know how Mtn Torque relates to the atmosphere?? I'm sure most have a general understanding but adding a small timbit of knowledge for the non professionally educated might be fun for all. Sometimes understanding or seing another view point of something simplistic can make a difference. From here I guess it comes down to your thoughts and how open you are to share your wisdom and experience with all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hey guys and gals, I just posted this on the Minnesota Forecaster site, would like some input from you all, am I all wet, or does this make sense. "For those that visit this site often, you may have read that I have been calling for a more active pattern developing from Feb 15th thru March 15th. It looks like it's on track. 1st of all there is weak storm system that should impact the the southern Ohio Valley during 18th-19th time frame, that won't of course affect us. But what it will do as it passes off to the NE is allow a SE ridge to quickly set up. I think this SE ridge could be a predominant feature during the next 30 days, although it could flatten for a 2 day period or so it should redevelop rather quickly.Going back to the 18-19th system, that should set the stage for the next storm that is progged for around the 21st-22nd. It's way to early to tell if it will impact MSP, but in the long run I don't think it matters,(although some of the guidance suggests it will.) What I think it will do however is lay a good solid snow pack down from IA to Madison and possibly the entire OH Valley. What does that mean for us? Any southerly winds that should develop will not necessarily bring warm temps up here as those winds will cool as it passes over the snow pack. So any storms that should track towards us will not have temp issue from the surface to about 925mb. All in all, I still see us impacted by a strong storm if not two of them between now and March 15th." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 There's potential in the medium/long range...if the GEFS are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It is nice to see so much cold air in the western part of the country without a huge ridge pushing in warmth across the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Thanks! Is there anything I can do to make it more readable? That's one of the main reasons I stay away from posting GWO and AAM charts b/c I think it doesn't really add value to the forecast unless ppl know what they are looking for. Otherwise I just try to post the dates with a brief temp trend to go along with the pattern. IDK Just keep posting it the way you have been. Works good for me. Makes it easier to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Saw Skilling tonight, He seems to think we are in the snow for the late week storm next week. Didn't give any totals, showed a map of where the snow could possibly be the heaviest, and it covered most of this region.....so, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Regardless of the end of the week storm, there is a huge amount of potential around the 25th or so. The ECMWF showed a Miller B storm tracking through OH then transferring, with another s/w in the southern plains/Arklatex region. GGEM showed the same potential and the past few runs of the GFS had done the same. Still a long ways to go especially with what happens with the other two systems having to pass through first but it's definitely worth watching. Hopefully this one can survive the journey from fantasy range unlike a couple of systems this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Regardless of the end of the week storm, there is a huge amount of potential around the 25th or so. The ECMWF showed a Miller B storm tracking through OH then transferring, with another s/w in the southern plains/Arklatex region. GGEM showed the same potential and the past few runs of the GFS had done the same. Still a long ways to go especially with what happens with the other two systems having to pass through first but it's definitely worth watching. Hopefully this one can survive the journey from fantasy range unlike a couple of systems this month I think chances are extremely high that Detroit ends up somewhere in the top 20 snowiest Februaries. As it is, we only need 4.5" more to hit #20 and 8.7" to hit #10. The question is, will we get a bomb or just more nickel/dime/advisory/low-end warning snows? The Feb list is chock full of years from this young century: 01.) 38.4" - 1908 02.) 31.7" - 2011 03.) 28.5" - 1881 04.) 28.0" - 1900 04.) 28.0" - 1926 06.) 27.0" - 2010 07.) 24.2" - 2008 08.) 20.8" - 1986 09.) 19.6" - 1898 10.) 19.2" - 1988 10.) 19.2" - 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 You can tell by looking at the long range models that the warmer season is approaching, the cold is starting to give up the ghost. I guess since our average high is going to be over 40 at the end of the "15 day" run, its not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 You can tell by looking at the long range models that the warmer season is approaching, the cold is starting to give up the ghost. I guess since our average high is going to be over 40 at the end of the "15 day" run, its not surprising. Yes...but perhaps a period conducive of big winter storms is just beginning. CFS has lost its "morch" look for most of the U.S. and has been trending colder and colder. Cant remember who, but one of those touting an extremely warm, early spring/March said the cfs really had the right idea. Of course this was one when it was torching, now the blue seems to be increasing each run. Bet they drop the CFS now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yes...but perhaps a period conducive of big winter storms is just beginning. CFS has lost its "morch" look for most of the U.S. and has been trending colder and colder. Cant remember who, but one of those touting an extremely warm, early spring/March said the cfs really had the right idea. Of course this was one when it was torching, now the blue seems to be increasing each run. Bet they drop the CFS now Is cromartie back under yet a different alias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yes...but perhaps a period conducive of big winter storms is just beginning. CFS has lost its "morch" look for most of the U.S. and has been trending colder and colder. Cant remember who, but one of those touting an extremely warm, early spring/March said the cfs really had the right idea. Of course this was one when it was torching, now the blue seems to be increasing each run. Bet they drop the CFS now 2011 March was below normal over the northern US, assuming March is a guaranteed torch is a foolish idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Quick update here with dates and anomalies Have RWT S/W for Feb 26-27 with cooler conditions for time frame of Feb 27-March 3. RWT S/W for March 5/6 working with Mtn Torque even should ensure colder air in place over the north tier so I think there is the possibility for this to produce a decent storm for someone and then cooler conditions March 5-9. Have another RWT S/W expect March 7/8 with a brief stint of cooler air for the 8 and 9. And then behind it GWO analogs indicating a TORCH in the time frame of March 9-11. A 15-20 degree warm up from prior day temps. This warm could extend through the 13th IF there is strong southerly flow ahead of a S/W tentatively expected to arrive March 13-14th. That S/W should usher in at least a 5-10 degree drop in temps for March 15-16 and then a second shot of cooler air arrives behind another S/W tentatively marked for March 16/17 that will return the region to "normal" temps for March 17-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 IWX going with mostly snow. (Until near the end of the event.) IND going with sleet/freezing rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Didn't see the 12z ensembles, but the 18z GFS Ensembles look to be popping with a storm around the 216-240 hour mark, almost every one of them has a decent storm in the region. If this continues to show up, I won't be as bummed about this upcoming storm petering out before reaching the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Didn't see the 12z ensembles, but the 18z GFS Ensembles look to be popping with a storm around the 216-240 hour mark, almost every one of them has a decent storm in the region. If this continues to show up, I won't be as bummed about this upcoming storm petering out before reaching the Great Lakes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Didn't see the 12z ensembles, but the 18z GFS Ensembles look to be popping with a storm around the 216-240 hour mark, almost every one of them has a decent storm in the region. If this continues to show up, I won't be as bummed about this upcoming storm petering out before reaching the Great Lakes. Lol...that storm could easily peter out too. I can't take anything that far out seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Lol...that storm could easily peter out too. I can't take anything that far out seriously. That's why I put up the qualifier, and I don't know why Chistorm is loling, you have it made for your passion; you can travel anywhere you want to for your tornado entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Roger Smith, Jan 28th: "Expect record high temperatures for most of a week to ten day period around mid-February to 25th or so. Reason is from research strong indications of a major height building episode over the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. at that time. Overall reason (since that's really just the same prediction in upper air terms) has to do with solar system magnetic field structure and earth's approach to J-1 field sector. Analogues include 1930 and 1954 which both set numerous record highs in February." MASSIVE. FAIL. it would be one thing to forecast a mild period (which is not happening anyway) but to forecast 7-10 days of widespread record highs? Lets just join the JB club of forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Roger Smith, Jan 28th: "Expect record high temperatures for most of a week to ten day period around mid-February to 25th or so. Reason is from research strong indications of a major height building episode over the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. at that time. Overall reason (since that's really just the same prediction in upper air terms) has to do with solar system magnetic field structure and earth's approach to J-1 field sector. Analogues include 1930 and 1954 which both set numerous record highs in February." MASSIVE. FAIL. it would be one thing to forecast a mild period (which is not happening anyway) but to forecast 7-10 days of widespread record highs? Lets just join the JB club of forecasting. Most long range predictions end up in the trash can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 With a +NAO I'm guessing the D7 storm on the EURO over the S Plains is going to cut. Although, it's also showing a rex block over Hudson Bay so I'm not sure how that'll affect how things unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 With a +NAO I'm guessing the D7 storm on the EURO over the S Plains is going to cut. Although, it's also showing a rex block over Hudson Bay so I'm not sure how that'll affect how things unfold. It's cutting. Omaha is going to need the National Guard to help dig out after these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.