snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 torch incoming for storm 2! Not with an anomalously deep vortex spinning over the Gulf of St. Lawrence? Easy bowling ball setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 pushes east way too fast...it will torch. Take it to the bank. lol. Alek has shifted from justified pessimism to pure troll mode. Spring is around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 pushes east way too fast...it will torch. Take it to the bank. I would love a torch that yields the largest snowfall of this old winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I would love a torch that yields the largest snowfall of this old winter. This.. Potential is there for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 torch incoming for storm 2! Not on that run. Look higher up. It's not some really strong digging wave into the srn plains that ejects northeast at us but this crosses the rockies and moves east and once the ULL finally establishes itself on this run it just moves east. Look at H5 vort at 180hr, looks pretty unorganized and doesn't scream impressive. But if you get a single strong wave to dig more then yeah WAA would be more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 That is a nice temperature gradient on the GFS though. It should yield some nice frontogenesis snows for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Not on that run. Look higher up. It's not some really strong digging wave into the srn plains that ejects northeast at us but this crosses the rockies and moves east and once the ULL finally establishes itself on this run it just moves east. Look at H5 vort at 180hr, looks pretty unorganized and doesn't scream impressive. But if you get a single strong wave to dig more then yeah WAA would be more impressive. Agree. The preceding storm will also be a player in how far north this gets...if it's still hanging around off the east coast then it will be tough for this storm to gain much latitude after it enters the Plains. OHweather has laid it out nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 A couple EPIC Iowa to Madison blizzard members at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 A couple EPIC Iowa to Madison blizzard members at 12z The ones that have a nice storm for number 2 are all seemingly west and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The ones that have a nice storm for number 2 are all seemingly west and warm. I think you are in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 That second system would have a ton of potential if the first one didn't amplify so much...or if it ended up ejecting slower than what the GFS is suggesting, which I suppose is entirely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 That second system would have a ton of potential if the first one didn't amplify so much... Ok, I'm trying to get the nomenclature right: 1st storm = weekend what could have been 2nd storm = modest threat early next week 3rd storm = potentially bigger threat later next week ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm starting with your storm 2 as storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Ok, I'm trying to get the nomenclature right: 1st storm = weekend what could have been 2nd storm = modest threat early next week 3rd storm = potentially bigger threat later next week ?? Lol, ok so we're saying that's the third storm? Then, yes, the third storm (too much activity seems to potentially be a problem here). And yeah, I was doing the same thing Alek was doing. Looking at the Euro/GGEM, they look much more impressive with that storm, and the Euro is reloading the West Coast at the end of the run. The potential volatility on a scale of 1-10 of the pattern coming up here is probably a solid 9. There continue to be some monsters on the GFS ensembles well into truncation as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lol, ok so we're saying that's the third storm? Then, yes, the third storm (too much activity seems to potentially be a problem here). And yeah, I was doing the same thing Alek was doing. Me too. But your assessment makes more sense to me if it were expressing the interrelationship between the weekend nothing storm and the early week storm. edit: unless you're not strictly talking about winter wx potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lol, ok so we're saying that's the third storm? Then, yes, the third storm (too much activity seems to potentially be a problem here). And yeah, I was doing the same thing Alek was doing. Looking at the Euro/GGEM, they look much more impressive with that storm, and the Euro is reloading the pattern at the end of the run. To avoid confusion and raise awareness, I think we should call "storm 3" or "storm 2" if you skip the weekend cold front, "Dory," since the northeast had Nemo. "Deadly Dory ends Chicago Snow Drought in Life-Threatening Fashion"...can see it now. This is 100% sarcasm btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Me too. But your assessment makes more sense to me if it were expressing the interrelationship between the weekend nothing storm and the early week storm. edit: unless you're not strictly talking about winter wx potential. It's Andy.. You know what he's looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It's Andy.. You know what he's looking for. Yeah, brain freeze on my part. I should have assumed as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It's Andy.. You know what he's looking for. Actually, in this case, that has the biggest winter weather potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 To avoid confusion and raise awareness, I think we should call "storm 3" or "storm 2" if you skip the weekend cold front, "Dory," since the northeast had Nemo. "Deadly Dory ends Chicago Snow Drought in Life-Threatening Fashion"...can see it now. This is 100% sarcasm btw. Lol...stick with giving your amazing analysis of the weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 pushes east way too fast...it will torch. Take it to the bank. lol. Alek has shifted from justified pessimism to pure troll mode. Spring is around the corner. He had a torch call for this week at one point... 5-10 degrees above the normal high is now a torch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Last half of Feb looks banging with plenty of S/W's though. I gave you guys my forecast through Feb.11 last Sunday. I will write a more indepth forecast and POP of the last 3 weeks on Monday or something. But it looks like Feb 11-13 will be another 5-10 degree warm up ahead of a S/W arriving the 14 or 15th with colder air behind it for Feb 15-17. Strat. analogs are showing 4 storms in a week and a half period for the second half of Feb. I'm waiting for more GWO data though before I confirm and jump on the bandwagon for such an active pattern. Although this would jive with the thoughts of a snowy pattern for the Plains/upper MS valley and the NE still ending up with about normal snowfall while at the same time having above normal temps for the month....just plenty of opportunities to score while getting screwed on others. This was the pattern and week I was referring to a couple weeks ago. LOL Also like the high in the way at 140W. I think it will do a nice job of splitting this strong xt-RWT at 170W in to several pieces with pockets of energy slipping underneath and emerging as pulses along the southern jet that could possible end up phasing with their siblings that took the northern jet on the 21/22 time frame. Also marked out xt-RWT over Africa that I think will be a player come March 6/7 that matches up with a Mtn. torque event meaning colder air should be over the region. I think it could be a decent storm for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This was the pattern and week I was referring to a couple weeks ago. LOL Also like the high in the way at 140W. I think it will do a nice job of splitting this strong xt-RWT at 170W in to several pieces with pockets of energy slipping underneath and emerging as pulses along the southern jet that could possible end up phasing with their siblings that took the northern jet on the 21/22 time frame. Also marked out xt-RWT over Africa that I think will be a player come March 6/7 that matches up with a Mtn. torque event meaning colder air should be over the region. I think it could be a decent storm for someone. wed.jpg Wow, I respect that you can make a call from this far out. It will be interesting to see if your forecast plays out over DT and several others calling for WARMTH in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wow, I respect that you can make a call from this far out. It will be interesting to see if your forecast plays out over DT and several others calling for WARMTH in March.Please don't ever mention me or DT in the same sentence again....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Please don't ever mention me or DT in the same sentence again....lol Haha...I take it that "DT" is like a curse word to you. quote name="Stebo" post="2120862" timestamp="1360811964"]Perfectly stated. Perfectly stated. I agree. Great explanation and without being a douche about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Haha...I take it that "DT" is like a curse word to you. quote name="Stebo" post="2120862" timestamp="1360811964"]Perfectly stated. I agree. Great explanation and without being a douche about it. Btwn him and a few other guys they have really ruined long range forecasting's image. Flip flopping every other day and calling for epic events every other month. Private sector forecasters in energy trading are fighting an uphill battle with fellow meteorologists and the public to change the perception of LRFing. Just like everyone thinks mets can't forecast weather for the next day because hacks have ruined the science for so many years in the short range also, these guys get out there and do the same thing to LR. It's just annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I agree. Great explanation and without being a douche about it.Btwn him and a few other guys they have really ruined long range forecasting's image. Flip flopping every other day and calling for epic events every other month. Private sector forecasters in energy trading are fighting an uphill battle with fellow meteorologists and the public to change the perception of LRFing. Just like everyone thinks mets can't forecast weather for the next day because hacks have ruined the science for so many years in the short range also, these guys get out there and do the same thing to LR. It's just annoying. That is a great reminder of why this board is so blessed to have meteorologists who don't just obsess over a computer model, but look at indices, patterns, etc... to make forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm surprised Tom Skilling is hyping about the storm next week. He seems to be hyping a bit more this year than usual. I have ALWAYS respected this great man though. One of the gentleman who influenced my interest in weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm surprised Tom Skilling is hyping about the storm next week. He seems to be hyping a bit more this year than usual. I have ALWAYS respected this great man though. One of the gentleman who influenced my interest in weather. I'm not really surprised! He was talking about the GHD blizzard about 7-8 days ahead of time. The system has just left Japan this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm not really surprised! He was talking about the GHD blizzard about 7-8 days ahead of time. The system has just left Japan this evening. Hmmm...so if he talks about it over a week in advance, it means he is pretty confident? Sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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