Stebo Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Ahh here come the eternal pessimists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Ahh here come the eternal pessimists. Do you think the temp profiles will come around in a situation like this (a Central or Western GLC), because if not, it pays to be a pessimist for this storm it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Do you think the temp profiles will come around in a situation like this (a Central or Western GLC), because if not, it pays to be a pessimist for this storm it would seem. Central/Western GL have the better chance with this system as it stands as they would have the colder air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Ahh here come the eternal pessimists. Haha yep. I saw this coming. 9 days out and everyone's throwing in the towel. I think it's good that the models are flip flopping... If we were kept in the "sweet spot" 9 days out for several runs I would be worried. I still think we're in good standing IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Haha yep. I saw this coming. 9 days out and everyone's throwing in the towel. I think it's good that the models are flip flopping... If we were kept in the "sweet spot" 9 days out for several runs I would be worried. I still think we're in good standing IMO Most were talking about the Mon/Tues storm 6-7 days out. Which we should all keep an eye on. Not a storm 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Most were talking about the Mon/Tues storm 6-7 days out. Which we should all keep an eye on. Not a storm 10 days out.Ye Yep, but even still, like Stebo and Harry Perry are saying, plenty of time to watch this. It would be surprising to see almost all of this storm consist of rain, as the 0z GFS is indicating. It's not like there is no cold or snowcover prior to this storm either in the region. It will be low to mid 20s this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yep, but even still, like Stebo and Harry Perry are saying, plenty of time to watch this. It would be surprising to see almost all of this storm consist of rain, as the 0z GFS is indicating. It's not like there is no cold or snowcover prior to this storm either in the region. It will be low to mid 20s this weekend. FWIW i dont buy this solution. Like you stated there will be more colder air to work with. I expect to go back and forth a few times. Shows rain all the way north into the mackinaw straits. Highly doubt that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The new GFS solution for the 19th is a screwy one indeed. Mild air goes to far north to make sense given a high pressure draped to the NW-N-NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Do you think the temp profiles will come around in a situation like this (a Central or Western GLC), because if not, it pays to be a pessimist for this storm it would seem. Well, being 6-7 days out...that's kinda hard to say, c'mon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Like I didn't see the GEM coming for early next week. Pops a 997mb low in C Wisconsin at 156 hours. I know what won't happen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Complaint thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Complaint thread. I'm not complaining about this winter, just making a statement/observation about the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well when you word almost all of your posts like complaints, I (and others) really have no choice but to assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 00z GGEM finally gave up on the weekend idea. Continuity problem anyone? 12z: 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 ^ Possibly the last "lol Canadian" run ever if tomorrow's GGEM upgrade lives up to the hype. Although I have my doubts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Meanwhile, the 0z Euro. What I would give for an Hour 156 panel... Sure looks like a nice hit for the northern GLOV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Meanwhile, the 0z Euro. What I would give for an Hour 156 panel... Sure looks like a nice hit for the northern GLOV. A good hit SE of a Gary to Flint/Detroit line, but not so much for the northern half of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 A good hit SE of a Gary to Flint/Detroit line, but not so much for the northern half of the region. Still nice to have an alternate solution to the warm/rainy GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Still nice to have an alternate solution to the warm/rainy GFS though. Yep, compromise anyone? I'm surprised that with a more SE solution, the Euro keeps enough cold air around for those on the NW side to get a nice dose of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Some quick thoughts on the GFS ensembles: Storm 1 (this weekend)…GGEM came back to reality, any faint hope is now gone for this subforum. Good NW flow lake effect setup Friday-Saturday however may make up for any “disappointment” in localized areas. Storm 2 (Tuesday-Wednesday of next week): Despite no real –NAO and the 50/50 low being transient…I am concerned still that the shortwave crashing into the northwest behind “storm 2” (let’s call it Dory, the slightly handicapped “fish” trying to find “Nemo” for us Great Lakes/Ohio Valley folk) will make it difficult for the northern stream to dive sufficiently far south for phasing to occur…if phasing does occur over the Missouri Valley, which the above image suggests is possible if the northern branch is a little more aggressive, there wouldn’t be much blocking to stop a track into the lower lakes…however, I remain concerned that any phasing will not occur until farther east, if at all…I’d honestly feel this has a better chance at being an upper OV/upper Mid Atlantic/New England type threat with a low developing over the OH/TN Valleys and then transferring off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, if phasing does occur, because the trend has been for the northern branch shortwave to be a bit more progressive over the past couple of cycles of model runs. Storm 3 (2/21-23): The next storm appears to be the one everybody is going to really bug out about, if current model projections continue for another day or two…the GFS appears to be showing the sub-tropical and polar branches combining over the western US, with a 130+kt upper level jet streak ejecting into the Plains in about 8.5 days. Thus, it appears this may be a case of more classic lee-side cyclonegenesis over the central Plains in about 8-9 days as opposed to waiting on a phase to occur. The question then is…assuming the models aren’t really overestimating the energy crashing into the west in about 6-7 days…which I doubt, given its been well agreed upon for several days on…does the storm track more NE towards the western Lakes or more west-east towards the lower Ohio Valley? This is a bit tougher…it doesn’t help that the GFS/ECM suites appear to be at odds over how much NAO blocking tries to develop by this time: Given the 12z European ensembles had the low running through the lower OV before transferring…and the 12z GFS ensembles were into the lower lakes, the difference in handling of the potential –NAO and 50/50 low from “storm 2” may be what results in this difference in track…I haven’t seen the individuals yet but the 0z GEFS mean had a very broad low pressure across central IL/IN through N. OH, likely meaning there is quite a bit of spread amongst members. Given that storm 2 is likely to bomb a little more effectively ahead of storm 3 than storm 1 will for storm 2, there may be some credence to the whole process helping to force a more –NAO and hence keep the storm somewhat farther south…however this is still a highly uncertain forecast…overall I’d believe the chances of “storm 3” (or Dory) delivering the goods to more folks than “storm 2”, although this is far from a clear cut forecast right now. After storm 3 we may begin fighting an Alaskan low…which has been shown in place by day 10 for a few days now…so we may see a gradual warm up for the last few days of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Thank you Some quick thoughts on the GFS ensembles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI302 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013 MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-140815-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-302 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTMICHIGAN..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHTNO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAYACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAYNIGHT AND TUESDAY. YEYY GOOD JOB DTX calling an inch of snow a week ahead lol..good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 GGEM finally laid down the crack pipe. Kind of a shame nothing is going to materialize for us this weekend as the ul pattern did look primed for something big. Subtract the lead clipper lowering heights along the east coast, and the kicker s/w (our early next week storm) plowing through the Rockies and a GGEMesque solution wouldn't have just been plausible. With as amplified a W NOAM ridge as we have, I'd say it would have been likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 6z GFS came back with a cooler (and more realistic) solution for next week. The consistency with the models regarding a storm of some form in that time period is there. A willing and able individual should start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 302 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013 MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-140815-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-302 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTMICHIGAN..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHTNO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAYACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAYNIGHT AND TUESDAY. YEYY GOOD JOB DTX calling an inch of snow a week ahead lol..good call Now that is being bold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 torch incoming for storm 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 torch incoming for storm 2! Ends up being a torch fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Ends up being a torch fail. This has been quite the up and down winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Ends up being a torch fail. pushes east way too fast...it will torch. Take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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