A-L-E-K Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 3:19 PM, wisconsinwx said: So storm cancel for the whole region? OH valley might see a slushy inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 0z Euro did come north. Gives Jomo 30" between both systems lol good run for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 0z GGEM ensembles at 156 hours. #5 (979mb) would be pretty fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 4:59 AM, Chicago WX said: 0z GGEM almost a mirror image of the UK at 144 hours. Weakens/transfers rapidly thereafter. 3:19 0z GGEM 144.gif I think this type of scenario is the least likely. When do you ever see a low that strong move ne into southern IL and then transfer? It doesn't happen. A low that strong would continue driving into...at least...northern IN/OH before it began to occlude and transfer. Other options would be a weaker low further southeast that bombs the coast or a full blown primary to the lakes...block be damned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 12z GFS north. 33º and rain in late March would be the ultimate kick in the nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 3:49 PM, buckeye said: I think this type of scenario is the least likely. When do you ever see a low that strong move ne into southern IL and then transfer? It doesn't happen. It's happened several times in the past, not sure why you're saying it's not possible. But weakening/occluding is what is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 4:16 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z GFS north. 33º and rain in late March would be the ultimate kick in the nuts. All of IA/southern WI crushed, good run for here and the usual suspects (DBQ, MSN, Mt. Geos) are the winners. Let's get ORD above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 4:21 PM, Thundersnow12 said: All of IA/southern WI crushed, good run for here and the usual suspects (DBQ, MSN, Mt. Geos) are the winners. Let's get ORD above average. Screw that. Need this thing farther south...need to get LAF to/or above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 pass on the 1-2" slop fest the GFS is advertising...that thing looks just like all the other near miss turds this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 12z Ukie....998mb in NE Mississippi to CVG area at 1001mb. Not quite as exciting as its 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 4:42 PM, Alek said: pass on the 1-2" slop fest the GFS is advertising...that thing looks just like all the other near miss turds this winter. If its going to be cold anyways I'll take that over boring suppression. I'll take an ice storm at this point. Looks like one of those that won't be resolved until it's within 24 hours. Worst run-to-run consistency ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Spring should be punted till mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 4:57 PM, Jonger1150 said: Spring should be punted till mid April. I've already punted until May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 12z GGEM throws out a bizarro solution. Way northwest initially, then moves/sorta transfers east...and nails northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I bet parts of the U.P will still have a solid snow Cover in Early May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 5:00 PM, dmc76 said: I bet parts of the U.P will still have a solid snow Cover in Early May... 6+ inches of water... A few spots touching 8 inches. Most likely the warm-up will be very instant when it does happen, because of the solar energy warming up the southern states. Rivers and ultimately the great lakes should move out of the danger zone for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 I can't figure this out, is that 5.9+ or 9.8+ near Grand Marais? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 5:00 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z GGEM throws out a bizarro solution. Way northwest initially, then moves/sorta transfers east...and nails northern IL. Could also bomb out over Kansas and then occlude and fizzle before moving east. Or be a complete dud. The polar jet is really constipated looking and there's a lack of healthy wave separation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 5:12 PM, Jonger1150 said: I can't figure this out, is that 5.9+ or 9.8+ near Grand Marais? wow! that's the 9.8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Just going to throw it out there, but March 25-26 has a thing for Chicago. March 25-26, 1930: 19.2" March 25-26, 1970: 14.3" Missed the 40 year return rate in 2010, so maybe it's delayed but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 12z GEFS mean southeast of the op run...but good enough for southern MN, northern MO, IA, central/northern IL, central/southern WI, northern IN, MI, and ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 meanwhile back at the gaps at hr 120....aka buckeye's favorite model: (craziest thing about this is that it was showing the gfs amped version just two runs ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 5:12 PM, Jonger1150 said: I can't figure this out, is that 5.9+ or 9.8+ near Grand Marais? These are notoriously inaccurate. We don't have any snow here at Valpo, and I didn't see any west on Sunday on my drive between Toledo and Valpo on I-80 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 12z Euro wants nothing to do with what the GFS or GGEM are smoking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 gfs and euro have actually moved farther apart. Gfs was further north, Euro has come futher south. In this situation you gotta go with DT...the Gfs is most likely crap. I suspect the afternoon gloat fest on DT's FBpage will be historic if not epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 6:35 PM, buckeye said: gfs and euro have actually moved farther apart. Gfs was further north, Euro has come futher south. In this situation you gotta go with DT...the Gfs is most likely crap. I suspect the afternoon gloat fest on DT's FBpage will be historic if not epic DT's a clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 On 3/19/2013 at 4:57 PM, Jonger1150 said: Spring should be punted till mid April. On 3/19/2013 at 5:12 PM, Jonger1150 said: I can't figure this out, is that 5.9+ or 9.8+ near Grand Marais? :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Extremely Negative Arctic Oscillation Draining Arctic Air Into The Great Lakes and East Upon Spring's Fanfare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 12z Euro is nice for STL and IND. LAF gets basically shut out. Sharp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 It will be interesting to see what local offices think and which solution(s) they favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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