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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 4


hm8

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  On 3/11/2013 at 1:27 PM, Stebo said:

GGEM has been closer to the GFS in this range. The Euro wants to blow up yet another Nor'Easter but has been inconsistent at that, certainly a wait and see though I do say the GFS has had a more consistent look to it in the long range.

 

GGEM is a pretty bad model. But my point was the extended on the ensembles...not the operational runs. And just as much as the GEFS have held their ground, the Euro ENSM have as well. They are world's apart.

 

AO and NAO headed for another dip per the ensembles...AO impressively so.

 

 

 

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  On 3/11/2013 at 4:26 PM, Chicago WX said:

12z GFS just a bit different from its 0z run with the day 6-7 evolution/system. Tis the season.

 

White St. Patrick's Day for Chicago? :beer:

 

Early next week, about a week from now looks pretty interesting.  Euro has shown signs of a good storm in this time frame, but mainly for the east coast.  Depending on how the energy evolves we could be tracking another high impact storm system later this week.

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  On 3/11/2013 at 5:19 PM, cyclone77 said:

Early next week, about a week from now looks pretty interesting.  Euro has shown signs of a good storm in this time frame, but mainly for the east coast.  Depending on how the energy evolves we could be tracking another high impact storm system later this week.

 

Might as well, it's literally been one high impact storm every six days for February and the first half of March.

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  On 3/11/2013 at 4:26 PM, Chicago WX said:

12z GFS just a bit different from its 0z run with the day 6-7 evolution/system. Tis the season.

 

White St. Patrick's Day for Chicago? :beer:

03172012     83/58.    

 

Hmmmmmmmmmm what a difference a year makes. 

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  On 3/11/2013 at 6:48 PM, BeastFromtheEast said:

12Z Euro comes in with a pretty sweet looking cutter!

:thumbsup:

USA_PRMSL_msl_192.gif

 

USA_TMP_850mb_192.gif

 

Uh oh, got your wrists slapped lol.

 

Yeah that is one hell of a beast on the new Euro.  Instead of blowing up on the east coast as in previous runs it wraps up much sooner and impacts areas further west. 

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  On 3/11/2013 at 8:17 PM, cyclone77 said:

Wundermap's precip data **** the bed after 150hrs on the Euro.  Anyone with Euro data know how much snow falls in the storm for next mon-tue?

What i dont get is the L track implies heavier snow well west...but the 12z euro has 0.90" at DTW (mostly snow) and 0.45" at ORD (all snow).

 

per this link, at least. i dont get the text data others do

http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Michigan/Detroit_Metropolitan_Wayne_County_Airport/

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  On 3/11/2013 at 8:44 PM, michsnowfreak said:

What i dont get is the L track implies heavier snow well west...but the 12z euro has 0.90" at DTW (mostly snow) and 0.45" at ORD (all snow).

 

per this link, at least. i dont get the text data others do

http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Michigan/Detroit_Metropolitan_Wayne_County_Airport/

 

Reminds me of a mid-winter storm with cold air well entrenched, like Jan. 2, 1999 with that type of result.  Doubt it will be like that, but with such a strong system, I guess you never know.

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  On 3/11/2013 at 8:44 PM, michsnowfreak said:

What i dont get is the L track implies heavier snow well west...but the 12z euro has 0.90" at DTW (mostly snow) and 0.45" at ORD (all snow).

 

per this link, at least. i dont get the text data others do

http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Michigan/Detroit_Metropolitan_Wayne_County_Airport/

That is a pretty big storm at 8 days for Lansing to northern lower Michigan!!!

 

I have also noticed the ECMWF on Wunderground.com has been not showing precip after 150hrs.

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  On 3/11/2013 at 10:49 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Looks like the week of the 18th could potentially be interesting. Wouldn't it be something if we had a big snowstorm on the first day of spring? It happened in 1998!

I remember getting 2" of snow on April 1st, 1993.  That was also the year of the massive flooding of the Mississippi River, and the endless trains of thunderstorms over the Great Lakes region.

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  On 3/12/2013 at 2:25 AM, daddylonglegs said:

March=fail...game over...spring will start in June

 

Lol, punting April and May already!  :lol:

 

It does look chilly though for awhile though. 11 days and counting with snow cover this month.

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  On 3/12/2013 at 3:17 AM, Geos said:

Lol, punting April and May already!  :lol:

 

It does look chilly though for awhile though. 11 days and counting with snow cover this month.

 

Almost the complete opposite of last March.  If trends continue it's gonna end up being a cold and snowy month overall. 

 

Last April was relatively cool IIRC, so maybe this April we'll roast.

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  On 3/12/2013 at 3:26 AM, cyclone77 said:

Almost the complete opposite of last March.  If trends continue it's gonna end up being a cold and snowy month overall. 

 

Last April was relatively cool IIRC, so maybe this April we'll roast.

I've often wonder if nature is always searching for balance. Could it be that nature is trying to even things out given last March was so warm?

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