June Severe Thread

[andyhb]

Counting your chickens before the eggs hatch. We don't know how the situation will evolve this far out but I won't rule out eastern NC or SC seeing a Moderate risk. You first say how do I get severe wx out of this but in the very next post say slight risk? Most severe wx around here comes with Slight Risk.

 

Yeah, I don't see that at all at this juncture.

[andyhb]

You must not know much about severe weather.

 

Lol, it is becoming pretty clear that you don't either.

[SmokeEater]

You said severe weather in the Carolinas by Friday, lol.

Counting your chickens before the eggs hatch. We don't know how the situation will evolve this far out but I won't rule out eastern NC or SC seeing a Moderate risk. You first say how do I get severe wx out of this but in the very next post say slight risk? Most severe wx around here comes with Slight Risk.

Let me get this straight, your first statement said severe weather in the Carolina's Friday, no maybe, it'll happen. Then you come out with you could see moderate risk Friday, 4 days out, nonetheless. Who's counting their chickens before they hatch? You're reputation really precedes you. And what reasoning do you have for this, other then only everything will move east? And I'm not forecasting a slight risk, that would be asinine 4 days out, I said you probably won't see anything above a slight risk, as the parameters in the east, are nothing like where the moderate risk is now, you can't compare the 2.

[Disc]

You must not know much about severe weather.

 

 

And you do? It's increasingly obvious that all you know how to do is copy and paste. The D3 outlook you posted has nothing to do with SE. The only thing you posted that has anything to do with the SE was the D4 and that covers only the most western parts.

 

Before calling out someone for their lack of knowledge, perhaps you should take a look at yourself first.

[metalicwx366]

Wilkes please just stop. You cant win against these guys. They know what they are talking about the majority of the time.

[WilkesboroDude]

Sorry if I came off rude, the Sun did not shine this Monday here in heart of the CAD.

 

We have several days to monitor this. I'll check back in tomorrow.

[MADDOGG]

There will be severe weather around friday maybe not in NC/SC but the southeast is bigger than that area.. you people keep ***** about wilkes if you don't like his posts don't read them. Almost a whole pg of jabs back and fourth blah blah take that to facebook

[jburns]

There will be severe weather around friday maybe not in NC/SC but the southeast is bigger than that area.. you people keep ***** about wilkes if you don't like his posts don't read them. Almost a whole pg of jabs back and fourth blah blah take that to facebook

 

Sorry but he was totally off base with his initial post of severe weather in the Carolinas on Friday. He provided no supporting evidence and no analysis.  You just can't make a proclamation telling people to prepare for severe weather without any supporting data and be taken seriously.

[VeronicaCorningstone]

There will be severe weather around friday maybe not in NC/SC but the southeast is bigger than that area.. you people keep ***** about wilkes if you don't like his posts don't read them. Almost a whole pg of jabs back and fourth blah blah take that to facebook

 

The Storm Prediction Center doesn't seem too concerned about Friday at this juncture.  What do you see, that they don't, that would make you predict severe storms (or a moderate to high risk like Wilkes is honking on about) in the Southeast?   Pardon me for  taking their information more seriously than Wilkes, being that they are severe weather experts and all. 

 

And Wilkes, no, I don't know much about weather.  Frankly, you don't have to be a d**k about it, CAD or no CAD.  

[buckeyefan1]

It looks like Wilkes has just earned himself a daily posting limit   

[jburns]

It looks like Wilkes has just earned himself a daily posting limit  

 

Thank you.

[SmokeEater]

There will be severe weather around friday maybe not in NC/SC but the southeast is bigger than that area.. you people keep ***** about wilkes if you don't like his posts don't read them. Almost a whole pg of jabs back and fourth blah blah take that to facebook

Another person completely off base, lol. You're completely positive there will be severe weather around the SE on Friday, 4 days out? What scientific reasoning do you have for this? You should work for SPC. And huge lol at you defending Wilkes, he got attacked because he attacked someone for no reason, and then made ridiculous statements. Obviously he was in the wrong, being he's now 5 posted. If you can't take the truth, not my problem.

[buckeyefan1]

Thank you.

You are welcome  He better use them wisely   

[SmokeEater]

Thank you.

You are welcome He better use them wisely

And buckeye, I won't help muck up the threads anymore, just felt like I had to come to Veronica's defense.

[metalicwx366]

And buckeye, I won't help muck up the threads anymore, just felt like I had to come to Veronica's defense.

No stay. We appreciate you and Andy's and Disc's analysis in these threads since you guys know your material. Hardly any mets post in these threads. Hell you only see them in the winter.

[SmokeEater]

And buckeye, I won't help muck up the threads anymore, just felt like I had to come to Veronica's defense.

No stay. We appreciate you and Andy's and Disc's analysis in these threads since you guys know your material. Hardly any mets post in these threads. Hell you only see them in the winter.

Oh nah man, didn't mean I was leaving, just dropping the Wilkes thing. I wouldn't stop posting about severe.

[buckeyefan1]

And buckeye, I won't help muck up the threads anymore, just felt like I had to come to Veronica's defense.

No problem

 

 

 

Now back to your regular scheduled program

[VeronicaCorningstone]

And buckeye, I won't help muck up the threads anymore, just felt like I had to come to Veronica's defense.

 

Awww shucks...Thanks      I just laughed when I read that comment.  To tell the truth, I don't know much about weather, at least not as much as I want to.  (Which is one reason why I love these forums so much...I can learn so much from y'all).  But that statement did seem a bit rich coming out of Wilkes' mouth.  Perhaps the lack of exciting weather (severe, snow, etc.) is making all of us a bit testy.     

Anywho, back to the topic...I need to download Radarscope on my phone and get new batteries for the weather radio.  We may not have anything severe this week but I'm pretty sure it won't be long before we have some real threats. 

[metalicwx366]

Awww shucks...Thanks I just laughed when I read that comment. To tell the truth, I don't know much about weather, at least not as much as I want to. (Which is one reason why I love these forums so much...I can learn so much from y'all). But that statement did seem a bit rich coming out of Wilkes' mouth. Perhaps the lack of exciting weather (severe, snow, etc.) is making all of us a bit testy.

Anywho, back to the topic...I need to download Radarscope on my phone and get new batteries for the weather radio. We may not have anything severe this week but I'm pretty sure it won't be long before we have some real threats.

I have radarscope and PKYL3. I like both but in my opinion radarscope is better. Amazing apps.

[SmokeEater]

And buckeye, I won't help muck up the threads anymore, just felt like I had to come to Veronica's defense.

Awww shucks...Thanks I just laughed when I read that comment. To tell the truth, I don't know much about weather, at least not as much as I want to. (Which is one reason why I love these forums so much...I can learn so much from y'all). But that statement did seem a bit rich coming out of Wilkes' mouth. Perhaps the lack of exciting weather (severe, snow, etc.) is making all of us a bit testy.

Anywho, back to the topic...I need to download Radarscope on my phone and get new batteries for the weather radio. We may not have anything severe this week but I'm pretty sure it won't be long before we have some real threats.

Seriously, I think the lack of severe is getting to all the severe weenies, lol.

[downeastnc]

It looks like Wilkes has just earned himself a daily posting limit  

 

 

Seriously, I think the lack of severe is getting to all the severe weenies, lol.

This times a million.....

 

And then to make it worse RAH comes along and kicks us while we are down.....

 

LATEST GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF REGARDING THE

TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA.

ITS ASSOC COLD FRONT IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA BETWEEN

00Z-12Z SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD

DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH

THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SWEEPING ACROSS OUR CWA FROM 00Z

SAT ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY SIMILAR

TO THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS OUR AREA LATE LAST WEEK...FEATURING

MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MOD TO HIGH SHEAR...WITH THE BEST

JUXTAPOSITION OF THE TWO ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO

FOLLOW UP WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE A

MARGINAL SVR THREAT.

[Ellinwood]

The severe threat in the Carolinas on Friday is very conditional at this juncture, with low CAPE and weak lapse rates due at least in part to pre-frontal clouds/rain. Unidirectional wind field above 925mb suggests that strong, potentially damaging winds along the cold front will be the primary threat. Winds out of the south at the surface may provide enough rotation for a tornado or two within this low CAPE/high shear environment. Hail doesn't appear to be as large a threat due to the weak lapse rates.

I do think the GFS CAPE is underdone given how it typically overdoes the prefrontal cloud+rain and its effect on instability, but I don't see CAPE really getting above 1000-1500 J/kg with the surge of Gulf moisture limiting the quality of the lapse rates.

[MADDOGG]

Another person completely off base, lol. You're completely positive there will be severe weather around the SE on Friday, 4 days out? What scientific reasoning do you have for this? You should work for SPC. And huge lol at you defending Wilkes, he got attacked because he attacked someone for no reason, and then made ridiculous statements. Obviously he was in the wrong, being he's now 5 posted. If you can't take the truth, not my problem.

well me no met! but i would be willing to put my money where my mouth is there will be severe in the southeast friday and time will be the only tell tell. but any person with alittle know about weather should say at this time of year its like money in the bank    not trying to be rude or anything. Not a daily poster but just didnt understand the whole back and forth

[downeastnc]

well me no met! but i would be willing to put my money where my mouth is there will be severe in the southeast friday and time will be the only tell tell. but any person with alittle know about weather should say at this time of year its like money in the bank    not trying to be rude or anything. Not a daily poster but just didnt understand the whole back and forth

 

But the thing is there looks to be little real chance of any kind of organized severe threat in the SE friday, you cant really just say climo suggest severe storms with every frontal passage cause its this time of the year so it must mean severe Friday.

 

Most of the NWS offices in the SE are downplaying the severe threat with this front.....so that is why most of the people in this thread are wondering why some are seeming to suggest there is a severe threat but doing it without any solid backing.

[buckeyefan1]

But the thing is there looks to be little real chance of any kind of organized severe threat in the SE friday, you cant really just say climo suggest severe storms with every frontal passage cause its this time of the year so it must mean severe Friday.

 

Most of the NWS offices in the SE are downplaying the severe threat with this front.....so that is why most of the people in this thread are wondering why some are seeming to suggest there is a severe threat but doing it without any solid backing.

Indeed.....at least CAE still mentions thunder for Friday   

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER OUR REGION WED/THU...AS UPPER TROUGH

OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. SURFACE

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST. FRONT TO

DROP DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/CENT APPS WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK

NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ALONG

WITH SOME CONTINUE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC

LIFT/OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY PROVIDE SOME PRECIP MAINLY JUST NORTH

OF OUR FA WEDNESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY. SOME WEAK

UPPER ENERGY...INCREASING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND

DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS FOR OUR REGION THU BUT

CONFIDENCE INSUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE POPS. GFS/ECMWF BRING COLD

FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY

SATURDAY TIME FRAME. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL POPS FOR THIS

TIME PERIOD...PROBABLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES. IT APPEARS THE BETTER

UPPER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT CONSIDERABLE LOW

LEVEL JET AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN

THUNDER MENTION.

[downeastnc]

Need the front to be 12 hours earlier or later than currently modeled, high shear low cape events in the middle of the night just do not get it done around here. You might hear thunder Friday night but a strong squall line would be hard to come by, and one would think discrete cells would be a even longer shot with the minimal cape. This happened last year too where all the fronts came through at night and all we had were high shear low cape setups.

[LithiaWx]

Need the front to be 12 hours earlier or later than currently modeled, high shear low cape events in the middle of the night just do not get it done around here. You might hear thunder Friday night but a strong squall line would be hard to come by, and one would think discrete cells would be a even longer shot with the minimal cape. This happened last year too where all the fronts came through at night and all we had were high shear low cape setups.

Timing for GA has been good recently and that looks to continue with this round on Friday afternoon.

[MADDOGG]

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WRT NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. TIMING FOR THE LOCAL AREA INDICATES BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING NW GEORGIA JUST PRIOR
TO 12Z FRIDAY. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MARGINAL FOR THIS EVENT
WITH ONLY A NARROW SLIVER OF 200J/KG TO 400J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE
TO WORK WITH FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS. SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY TO
THE SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL HAVE INCREASED THUNDER CHANCES
ROUGHLY FROM THE ATLANTA METRO SOUTHWARD. 850MB JET IS VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH NEARLY 90 KTS INDICATED FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. OUR AREA ONLY GETS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS BUT STILL
GOOD ENOUGH FOR 65 KTS FOR NW CORNER. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
AHEAD OF MAIN WIND CORE SO TIMING MAY NOT LINE UP FOR THIS ONE.
REGARDLESS...925MB WINDS ARE 50KTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEVERE WINDS EVEN WITH THE ABSENCE OF ROBUST
CONVECTION. WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP WORDING IN HWO.

 

[MADDOGG]

But the thing is there looks to be little real chance of any kind of organized severe threat in the SE friday, you cant really just say climo suggest severe storms with every frontal passage cause its this time of the year so it must mean severe Friday.

 

Most of the NWS offices in the SE are downplaying the severe threat with this front.....so that is why most of the people in this thread are wondering why some are seeming to suggest there is a severe threat but doing it without any solid backing.

very true however i do see a watch coming out of this with many severe warnings.. in the southeast where heck idk ill leave that for the mets. Was very moist out today wouldnt be suprised to get a few thunder boomers

[downeastnc]

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN

CONSISTENCY WRT NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO EJECT OUT OF THE

CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

THURSDAY NIGHT. TIMING FOR THE LOCAL AREA INDICATES BAND OF

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REACHING NW GEORGIA JUST PRIOR

TO 12Z FRIDAY. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MARGINAL FOR THIS EVENT

WITH ONLY A NARROW SLIVER OF 200J/KG TO 400J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE

TO WORK WITH FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS. SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY TO

THE SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL HAVE INCREASED THUNDER CHANCES

ROUGHLY FROM THE ATLANTA METRO SOUTHWARD. 850MB JET IS VERY

IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH NEARLY 90 KTS INDICATED FOR THE

OHIO VALLEY. OUR AREA ONLY GETS THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS BUT STILL

GOOD ENOUGH FOR 65 KTS FOR NW CORNER. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE

AHEAD OF MAIN WIND CORE SO TIMING MAY NOT LINE UP FOR THIS ONE.

REGARDLESS...925MB WINDS ARE 50KTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHICH

SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR SEVERE WINDS EVEN WITH THE ABSENCE OF ROBUST

CONVECTION. WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP WORDING IN HWO.

 

 

Look its possible that there will be severe especially out in GA but even then there are a lot of things to consider and as of right now the overall vibe is one of storms with a perhaps a few scattered areas of severe not a widespread severe event.