June Severe Thread

[NavarreDon]

Photo on 2013-02-11 at 17:22.jpg

[Chicago Storm]

Hattiesburg tor now an EF-4...

 

"Updated survey information: The Hattiesburg area tornado has been upgraded to an EF-4 tornado with estimated maximum winds of aruond 170 mph. This rating is based on damage that occurred in Lamar County near Oak Grove. Surveys are still ongoing along this tornado track, so this information is still preliminary."

Updated survey info...

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

505 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTY TORNADO EVENT

INCLUDING THE CITY OF HATTIESBURG...

UPDATE...RATING INCREASED TO EF-4 BASED ON DAMAGE NEAR THE OAK

GROVE HIGH SCHOOL IN LAMAR COUNTY.

HATTIESBURG TORNADO

RATING: EF-4 (CENTRAL LAMAR TO HATTIESBURG)

ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 170 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 20 MILES (ROUGH ESTIMATE)

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: NA YARDS

FATALITIES: 0

INJURIES: 82

START DATE: FEB 10 2013

START TIME: 506 PM (ESTIMATE)

START LOCATION: 5 WSW OF W HATTIESBURG (ESTIMATE)

START LAT/LON: NA

END DATE: NA

END TIME: 534 PM

END LOCATION: 8 NE PETAL (PERRY COUNTY-ESTIMATE)

END_LAT/LON: NA

SURVEY_SUMMARY:

UPDATED PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE SURVEY TEAMS HAVE THE TORNADO

NOW RATED AS EF-4 (170 MPH MAX WINDS). THE MOST INTENSE DAMAGE

OCCURRED AROUND THE OAK GROVE HIGH SCHOOL AND TO A HOUSING AREA JUST

SOUTHWEST OF THAT LOCATION. HERE...A WELL BUILT BRICK HOME WAS

LEVELED WITH OTHER SURROUNDING DATA SUPPORTING THE LOW END EF-4

RATING. ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE PATH

THROUGH WEST HATTIESBURG AND ACROSS THE CITY WERE RATED ACROSS THE

EF-3 RANGE. MORE SPECIFICS WILL BE PROVIDED LATER THIS EVENING AS

TEAMS COMPLETE THE SURVEYS.

AT THIS TIME...NO FATALITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. AS FAR AS INJURIES

82 PEOPLE WERE TAKEN TO AREA HOSPITALS...63 IN FORREST COUNTY AND 19

IN LAMAR COUNTY. THERE ARE LIKELY MANY MORE MINOR INJURIES THAT HAVE

NOT BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS THE SECOND VIOLENT TORNADO TO IMPACT LAMAR AND FORREST

COUNTIES. THE OTHER TORNADO WAS THE PURVIS TORNADO ON APRIL 24 1908.

THIS TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 155 MILES AND IMPACTED MANY

PARISHES/COUNTIES ACROSS LA/MS.

[NavarreDon]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL

536 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY RESULTS FROM INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

...SURVEYS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...

A STORM SURVEY TEAM FROM NWS MOBILE IDENTIFIED TWO TORNADO TRACKS

ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THAT WERE PRODUCED FROM THE

SUNDAY EVENING SEVERE WEATHER. AN EF-1 INTENSITY TORNADO WAS FOUND IN

WAYNE COUNTY...WHICH FIRST TOUCHED DOWN IN THE CLARA COMMUNITY AND

THEN TRACKED EAST TO THE DENHAM COMMUNITY BEFORE LIFTING. THE PATH

LENGTH OF THE TORNADO WAS APPROXIMATELY 16 TO 17 MILES...ALTHOUGH

THE DAMAGE WAS DISCONTINUOUS ALONG PARTS OF THE PATH.

EF-0 DAMAGE WAS FOUND IN EXTREME NORTHWEST PERRY COUNTY ALONG

HIGHWAY 42...JUST EAST OF THE FORREST AND PERRY COUNTY LINE. THIS WAS

THE END OF THE TRACK OF THE SAME TORNADO THAT MOVED THROUGH

HATTIESBURG AND PETAL.

[Isopycnic]

same video on weather channel.  They said it was a police officer's on board camera that recorded video

You can see him in the pickup truck with yellow lights. not a cop. 

 

BTW, turn down the sound unless you want to hear the bickering ninnies.

 

[POWERSTROKE]

You can see him in the pickup truck with yellow lights. not a cop.

BTW, turn down the sound unless you want to hear the bickering ninnies.

Probably right. That was what the weather channel said. Could have been the dude since he is now going to be a storm chaser to go along with his met degree.

[dan11295]

VERY lucky there were no fatalities from this tornado. Any time a long track EF3+ tornao hits a city the size of Hattiesburg (50,000+ residents) you are extremely fortunate not to have deaths. Some factors helping were that the school was not in session being a sunday, likewise with the university. Only the academic building were hit and not the residence halls. Some of the remaining area looks for commercial. This areas are somewhat safer then residences due to better construction (except in extreme cases i.e. Joplin).

Very good call by the NWS office to go with the Tornado Emergency for this storm also.

[NavarreDon]

east wonder if you could edit the title of this thread to include today? Looks like we are going to have a Tornado watch for the Gulf Coast including New Orleans which is celebrating Mardi Gras with Fat Tuesday.

 

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0157 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY       VALID 121957Z - 122100Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT      SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS...AND HAIL...IS   EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST IN   ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SFC CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT. A   TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.      DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW CONVECTION   INCREASING INVOF A WEAK SFC LOW...WHICH WAS CENTERED JUST N OF BPT   AS OF 19Z. AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT PARALLEL TO THE GULF COAST IS   SLOWLY LIFTING NWD ACROSS COASTAL SRN LA...WITH DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F   SPREADING INLAND. THE 12Z LCH SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR REPRESENTATIVE   19Z SFC CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG/S OF   THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SFC-BASED...WITH SBCAPE VALUES   APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE AREA IN   RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER W TX...COMBINED WITH   FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT   ATTENDANT TO THE SFC LOW...MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS THIS   AFTERNOON THROUGH SRN LA.       ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN   MS/AL AND EVENTUALLY THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WITHIN A WEAK WAA   REGIME...WHERE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES /PER   LCH/MOB VWP DATA/ ARE IN PLACE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE   FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS...WITH   AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT ACCOMPANYING DISCRETE STORMS FORMING NEAR   THE WARM FRONT/SFC LOW. AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF DMGG WINDS/HAIL MAY   ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

[Jonbo]

Came across a very well put together video showing the breadth of the damage in the area. Easily can see some of the EF3 to low EF4 damage in certain frames.

 

[TSOWxWizard]

For those of you wondering about John Sibley, the guy with the flashing lights and siren, he has caused quite an uproar in the chaser community apparently and Hattiesburg Police and the State of Georgia are investigating him for his actions. From this link: http://stormchasermovies.com/storm-chasers-use-of-lights-and-siren-causes-stir/

[oldlogin]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0357 AM CST FRI FEB 15 2013

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRYING NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A

GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO

APPEARS LIKELY TO COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A SERIES OF

SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BEGIN TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NATION.

AN INITIAL IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS COMING

WEEKEND...APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

REGION TOO SOON...AND TOO FAR NORTH...FOR A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW

OF MOISTURE TO DEVELOP AND CONTRIBUTE TO AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS HAVE

BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE

STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT

BASIN...BEFORE LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE

MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...TIMING

INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MORE FAVORABLE INLAND MOISTURE

RETURN BEGINS TO OCCUR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DOES NOT

APPEAR OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BUT...BY THURSDAY...AT

LEAST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...THERE APPEARS A GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER

DESTABILIZATION WILL BECOME FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSED TO SUPPORT THE RISK

FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED

TORNADOES.

[downeastnc]

Several tornado warned storms now in NE Tx, SE Ark and moving into LA......

[shaggy]

Seems the threat for a few tornadic cells seem possible tomorrow if the ingredients come together just right. Heres what the SPC has to say. Just depends on if any destabalization can occur.

 

THE WEAKENING SQUALL LINE MAY BE PRECEDED BY CONSIDERABLE EARLY DAY
   CONVECTION/RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
   THE CAROLINAS.  HOWEVER...WITH TIME...A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT IS
   EXPECTED TO NOSE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES ...AND
   TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   THAT THIS MAY BE FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE PERHAPS INCREASING IN EXCESS
   OF 500 J/KG...BEFORE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING RESULTS IN
   STRONGER CAPPING...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER TO A MORE
   WESTERLY COMPONENT.  THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST A WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY FOR DISCRETE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
   THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE WAVE...ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
   COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IF
   THIS OCCURS...IT PROBABLY WILL DO SO IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH THE RISK FOR
   TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
  
 

[WeatherNC]

Hey hey...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0239
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 PM CST TUE FEB 26 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PIEDMONT/COASTAL PORTIONS OF SC/NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 262317Z - 270115Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...CLOSELY MONITORED DEVELOPING SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS
   GENERALLY NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN SC INTO NC. SHOULD
   UPDRAFTS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO MATURE...A TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   MAY EXIST /PERHAPS EVEN WITH A RELATIVE ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING/...SUCH
   THAT A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED PENDING INCREASING TRENDS.
   
   DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/POSSIBLE INCIPIENT LOW-TOPPED TSTMS HAS
   RECENTLY INCREASED /SINCE 2215Z-2230Z/ WITH A NARROW/BUT DEEPENING
   CU FIELD IN VICINITY OF I-95 IN EASTERN SC/FAR SOUTHERN NC. THIS
   DEVELOPMENT IS COINCIDENT WITH A TRIPLE POINT VIA A 1000 MB SURFACE
   LOW AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT NORTHEASTWARD EXTENDING /ACROSS NC
   PIEDMONT/ WARM FRONT AND A SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT
   /ACROSS COASTAL SC/. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR
   ARE IN THE LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F...WITH AS MUCH AS 1000-1200 J/KG
   SBCAPE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NC/FAR EASTERN SC. WHILE WINDS ARE
   TENDING TO VEER JUST ABOVE TO SURFACE...PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT
   AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS /MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT/ COULD
   YIELD A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO MATURE...WHILE
   DAMAGING WINDS WOULD OTHERWISE BE A CONCERN. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR
   STORM LONGEVITY/INTENSITY RELATE TO A TREND TOWARD WEAKENING
   CONVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC
   UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLE INVERSION/S/
   ALOFT. EVEN SO...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEAR...SOME
   DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED THIS
   EVENING...EVEN WITH A RELATIVE ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING WITH LOW-TOPPED
   SHOWERS/TSTMS.
   
   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 02/26/2013

 

Warm front is through, 64/64, little line trying to form from Raleigh down to Florence with one warned cell atm. After the kill joy from the 12z guidance for this weekend, I need something to lift my sprites, a svr storm would do.

[WeatherNC]

[Cold Rain]

Severe T-storm warning for me right now.

[downeastnc]

Line is looking better every frame and with the way the airmass is this could make it all the way offshore with no problem.....I am at work but was surprised as to how warm and muggy it was as I walked up to the building.

[AJF0602]

Report of a tornado that destroyed a two story barn in Johnston county.

[downeastnc]

Line went poof for us but I can see the tops of the line offshore to my east and it was a pretty amazing light show with the tops of the storms almost continuously lit up with lightning.

[Solak]

By WNCN Staff

 

JOHNSTON COUNTY, N.C. -

The National Weather Service confirmed Wednesday that an EF0 tornado touched down outside Selma in Johnston County Tuesday night.

According to meteorologists on the scene, the estimated path length is a quarter-mile and the estimated width is 50 to 75 yards.

Winds associated with an EF0 tornado range from 65 to 85 miles per hour.

The tornado was confirmed four miles north of Selma at 8:18 p.m. There were no injuries from the tornado.

http://www.wncn.com/story/21413127/national-weather-service-confirms-johnston-co-tornado

[downeastnc]

Interesting 

 

 

 

SPC AC 150555      DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1255 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013      VALID 161200Z - 171200Z      ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN VA AND NRN   NC...      ...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS/NRN NC/SRN VA...   A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE   CONUS ON SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. A   MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD FROM THE MID MS   VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS VA. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ONGOING   AHEAD OF THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS   SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR A SFC LOW   MOVING EWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MORNING   CONVECTION COULD HAVE A HAIL THREAT DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE   RATES. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEFORE NOON SHOW A SFC INVERSION   SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED HELPING TO LIMIT THE WIND   DAMAGE POTENTIAL.      THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE   OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC   HEATING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE   ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW A CLUSTER OF SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE   AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM ERN KY/ERN TN EWD ACROSS SRN VA AND   NRN NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z AT JACKSON KY AND RICHMOND VA SHOW   ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH 60 TO 65 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE   THREAT. IF STORMS CAN EXHIBIT ROTATION...THEN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED   LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A WIND   DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN   IS INSTABILITY. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE AROUND 50 F   ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN SPITE OF THIS FACTOR...A STRONG WIND   FIELD WILL BE PRESENT AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP DURING   THE AFTERNOON. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL ADD A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA   ACROSS SRN VA AND NRN NC

[Teru Teru Bozu]

SPC downgraded the NC/VA border region from "Slight" down to "See Text" for Saturday...perhaps an isolated strong/severe storm since shear will be okay, but the CAPE and LL moisture is just not there for much more.

 

Monday (Day 4) looks like it may be interesting for some folks, though...

 

 

 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0358 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2013      VALID 181200Z - 231200Z      ...DISCUSSION...   THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD   ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY/DAY 4. THE MODELS SHOW A   CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF   COAST STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP   DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH   THE MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO COUPLE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS   THE OH VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES   WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND SWD FROM KY INTO TN AND NRN AL WHERE   MODEL FORECASTS SHOW 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ON   TUESDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE   ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE   ATLANTIC. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS DEVELOP ZONAL FLOW ACROSS   THE CONUS WITH THE MOIST SECTOR LOCATED FROM EAST TX EWD ACROSS LA.   THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OR DURING THE   OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT FROM NE TX EWD INTO THE   CNTRL GULF COAST STATES. AT THIS POINT...ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT   MOVES ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S. ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOW-AMPLITUDE. FOR   THIS REASON...THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE SCENARIO WITH THE GFS SHOWING   A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF.       CONCERNING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE   POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND   EVENING. WILL ADD A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA ACROSS PARTS   OF THE SRN OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT   AGREEMENT THAT THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND LIFT WILL   SUPPORT AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT.      ..BROYLES.. 03/15/2013

[audioguy3107]

Well, I just realized we had a separate thread for severe weather talk, although not sure we need the pattern discussion to focus on winter threats since its pretty much said and done unless you're at the higher elevations.....anywhoo, I posted the SPC map above over there as well.......SPC has some of the mid south outlined for a day 4 risk.  Both the NAM and GFS are painting CAPE values between 800 and 1500 J/KG a little to the west of here in southern Tennessee down into central Alabama.  Looks like discrete cells could be in the cards on Monday afternoon transitioning to more of a linear event by the evening/overnight.  LI tops out in the -2 to -5 range as well, so pretty decent indices...we'll see what the day 3 outlook brings tomorrow, but looks to be the best chance of severe in the area since the Adairsville tornado back in January.

[Teru Teru Bozu]

From Huntsville's afternoon discussion...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE MONDAY

AFTN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SB CAPE VALUES

MAY EXCEED 1500J/KG ACROSS THE AREA...CONCURRENT WITH ABOUT 25 KTS

OF SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. OVERALL...LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE

MAIN STRONG/SEVERE TSTM THREAT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR AND

LOW LCL HEIGHTS (PERHAPS <1KM) MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME

STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. FOR NOW...THE

HWO PRODUCT ADDRESSES MAINLY THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THREAT (HAIL).

THE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...QUICKLY EXITING BY TUESDAY

MORNING.

[Teru Teru Bozu]

Looks like areas from Memphis down to Texarkana may see some severe activity this evening...

 

 

...ARKLATEX NEWD TO THE MID-SOUTH...   A RESERVOIR OF UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS CNTRL AND E TX   WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE N-NEWD INTO SRN AR TODAY. A SFC LOW WILL   GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED NEAR TXK BY   18/00Z. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS FROM 17/12Z SHOW A STOUT CAP IS IN PLACE   NEAR 750 MB ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A SRN PLAINS EML   PLUME...WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT CONVECTION THROUGH THE   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE UPPER-70S DURING   PEAK HEATING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC LOW AND ALONG THE   ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS DURING   THE LATE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OVER   THE SRN PLAINS...COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTMS PRIOR   TO 18/00Z ACROSS NERN TX NEWD INTO AR. THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND   LARGE HAIL REMAINS QUITE CONDITIONAL DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN   UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.      AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER   18/00Z...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.   HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE EXPERIMENTAL SPC-SSEO/   INDICATES TSTMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD TO NEAR   MEM...AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD NEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY   MON MORNING. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR-SFC BASED PARCELS   WILL BE MAINTAINED AFTER ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING...AND COULD   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DMGG WIND THREAT INTO THE LATE EVENING.   ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING/VEERING 0-3 KM AGL FLOW COULD YIELD THE   POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO. AS ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS NEWD...WEAKER   INSTABILITY E OF THE MS VALLEY SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUALLY WANING SVR   THREAT. 

[Disc]

SPC has added hatching to their D2 outlook for C MS and C/SRN AL. Looks like large hail will be the largest threat with only a marginal tornado threat.

[cloudcrash619]

Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS of Memphis for tonight:

 

Maybe something interesting will happen...

 

 

 

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OFEAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTTENNESSEE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERETHREATS..WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTMISSISSIPPI...THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

[audioguy3107]

Pretty cool lifted index forecast graphic from the SREF out of SPC showing the NE Georgia storm shield quite nicely!  We should be good for some decent thunderstorms, but it doesn't look like this will be anything major to deal with.....greater threat to our west in central Alabama, but what else is new.

 

[Teru Teru Bozu]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch out now for parts of KY, TN, MS and AL:

DISCUSSION...BAND OF STG-SVR CONVECTION FROM VICINITY TN/KY BORDER

SSWWD TO NRN MS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. EXPECT CORRESPONDING

INCREASE IN SVR POTENTIAL AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS BOUNDARY LAYER THAT

WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH TIME...AND WILL CONTAIN MORE

SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN

FAVORABLE FOR PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...AND OCNL HAIL ALSO

IS POSSIBLE. BRIEF QLCS TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

[Teru Teru Bozu]

Sounding from Nashville...some rather impressive shear there:

 

[audioguy3107]

NE Georgia wedged in pretty good this morning just as the models showed although the wedge front is slowly making its way north.  It's currently 64 degrees in Atlanta while here only about 25 miles NE it's in the upper 40's.  Main event still to come later, SPC has a small tornado threat hatched over eastern Alabama and western Georgia.