Cold Rain Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 The parameters would be not living in the Triangle. Haha! True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 Where's the funnel cloud? :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 Slight Risk for most of NC today outside of the mts and beaches......plenty of surface cape especially east, and the lapse rates etc look decent so we shall see what is what. Today looks capable of supporting more organized storms than the trash we have seen the last 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 CAE......... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...STRONG TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITHLIFTED INDICES RANGING FROM MINUS 7C WEST TO MINUS 10C EAST ANDSURFACE BASES CAPES 2500 TO 4000 J/KG. ALREADY SEEING ENHANCEDCUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTMIDLAND AND LOW COUNTRY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL TO CROSS THEAREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PWAT 1.60 INCHES OR GREATER.HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOONDUE TO LARGE SCALE LIFT/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MODERATELY TOSTRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SOME SUPPORT NOTED FROM SREF ANDMESOSCALE MODELS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THEAFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASLONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES. WITH INCREASINGSHEAR COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENINGWITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. KEPT CHANCE OF CONVECTIONNEAR 60 PERCENT. STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TOLOWER 90S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Mesoscale Discussion 1264 < Previous MD Next MD > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1264 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS AL...ERN MS...GA...SC...FL PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...INCREASING SVR THREAT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREAAS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGINGGUSTS...SOMETIMES NEAR SVR LIMITS...ARE POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...NEARLY UNCAPPED AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT AIR MASS FROMSC TO ERN MS WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SFC-BASEDCONVECTION THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTN PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGINGDOWNBURSTS. UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE INTO LARGER CLUSTERSOFFERING DAMAGING-WIND RISK.VIS IMAGERY INDICATES TWO PRIMARY INITIAL AREAS OF CONVECTIVECONCERN...1. NRN GA AND NERN AL....ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE THATCOINCIDES WITH SEWD EXTENSION OF EARLIER CONVECTION...SHIFTINGSEWD...AND2. INVOF MCV THAT ALSO IS EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS OVERSERN AL...NEAR AUO. THIS FEATURE WILL PROCEED TOWARD GULF COAST OFCENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...AND MAY AID IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FROMTHAT REGION INTO SRN AL.OTHER CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG MORE SUBTLE FEATURESWITHIN NEARLY UNCAPPED AIR MASS FROM SC TO ERN MS.MORE KINEMATIC AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED SVRPOTENTIAL...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...IS EVIDENT THROUGH AT LEASTEARLY-MID AFTN. COOLING ALOFT...MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP SHEAR EACHWERE ENHANCED IN BMX RAOB...I.E. 35-50 KT JETLET IN 450-600 MB LAYERAND NEARLY -12 C 500-MB TEMP -- BY PROXIMAL PASSAGE OF MCV...WITHINSRN FRINGES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING NNEWD OVER OH.MEANWHILE...IN BROADER/MESO-ALPHA SCALE ENVIRONMENT...STRONGLYDIFLUENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EVIDENT IN MORNING RAOB ANALYSESAND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY...AHEAD OF TROUGH ALOFT. DCVA ANDACCOMPANYING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION WILL ACT IN TANDEMWITH STG INSOLATION OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CHARACTERIZED BY SFCDEW POINTS 70S F AND TEMPS RISING INTO UPPER 80S/90S NEAR THERMALAXIS...YIELDING MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/KG IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODELSOUNDINGS. ENHANCEMENTS TO MIDLEVEL FLOW RELATED TO APCH OFSHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO WILL STRENGTHEN DEEP SHEAR. STORM MODE SHOULDBE PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR. HOWEVER...AT LEAST TRANSIENTSUPERCELLULAR CHARACTER IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY W AND SW OF MCVWHERE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PERSIST...EDWARDS/KERR.. 06/27/2013ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 real pulse type storms now and they are staying rather small this should limit the severe stuff but when the storms fire up and die so fast there can be some decent downburst etc.... SPC already upping tomorrow to slight risk for a lot of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 The INTENSELY NOISY THUNDER ARGH line of storms that blew through here (a few miles N of KMSL) around 4am last night did a good bit of wind damage. Summer in the South ... it was 90F by 11am and 96F now per KMSL, 98F per the parking lot thermometer, and we're feeling every degree, yuk. Meaning everyone is inside, in air conditioning, chugging water or very diluted ice tea, and talking about the heat. If there is a single rumble of thunder from some pulse storm, half the shift charges outside to close the windows on their cars in the lot. You'd think it was a fire drill or something, to look at the streams of people exiting from every door. It's a good day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 Just had a borderline severe storm, really nasty wet microburst ripped limbs from the trees estimate winds 45-50ish and had nickel size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 The MCV fell apart over S GA. Good thing they didn't issue that severe thunderstorm watch they were thinking about issuing in the Mesoscale discussion. The outflow boundary is outrunning the line of storms in C GA, so that one should be falling apart soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Elevated risk for severe storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Latest from RAH on facebook: Still expecting strong to severe storms today in Central NC, mainly after 2 pm. Gusts over 50 mph possible - could knock down trees/branches. Those with outdoor plans late afternoon into evening, please keep a close eye on the sky & listen for any watches/warnings/alert statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA INTO WRN/CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281746Z - 281915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. A WW IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...LATEST TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR WRN VA AND ADDITIONAL DEEPENING CUMULUS SWD INTO WRN NC. THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS RATHER MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AND WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG. HEATING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND VIGOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING A LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH 35-40 KT FLOW IN THE 2-6-KM AGL LAYER /PER FCX AND MRX VAD DATA/. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL FORECASTS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD SUCH A SCENARIO UNFOLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 256 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2013The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch388 in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening for the followingareasIn North Carolina this watch includes 18 countiesIn central North CarolinaAlamance Chatham Davidson Durham Edgecombe Forsyth Franklin Granville Guilford Halifax Nash Orange person Randolph Vance wake Warren Wilson This includes the cities of...Asheboro...Burlington...Chapel HIll...Durham...Greensboro...Henderson...High Point...Lexington...Louisburg...Nashville...Oxford...Pittsboro...Raleigh...Roanoke Rapids...Rocky Mount...Roxboro...Warrenton...Wilson and Winston-Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN GA...WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281905Z - 282130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO NWRN AND W-CNTRL GA AND ARCS WSWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN AL. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF W-CNTRL GA INVOF THE BOUNDARY AND TO ITS EAST WITHIN A MOIST/LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN GA AND INTO WRN SC WHERE MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG EXIST OWING TO STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...GPS PW DATA INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY LOWER PW EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO CNTRL GA -- PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH A POCKET OF SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN ERN CONUS CYCLONE. SFC OBS INDICATE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BENEATH THIS LOWER-PW CORRIDOR...CONTRIBUTING TO RELATIVELY SMALLER MLCAPE BUT LARGER SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS. THE NET RESULT MAY BE FOR ONLY SPORADIC PULSE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AMIDST WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PER VWP DATA...THOUGH ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SHOULD MULTIPLE COLD POOLS CONGEAL WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ENSUE...POTENTIALLY WARRANTING WW ISSUANCE. AS SUCH...THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/28/2013 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 33058440 34318418 34728277 34198157 33058178 32158273 32018349 32278408 33058440 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 The line is firing off now looks to be a active afternoon for most of NC, the Triad getting it now, be a hr or so till it gets into the Triangle and close to dark by the time it gets here in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 looked like a weak rotation for a few frames just north of Yanceyville wouldnt be surprised to see some wind damage reports out of that area..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.