June Severe Thread

[Dunkman]

I've heard a few reports that there was a tornado or at least some kind of localized high wind event in Kernersville.  Bunch of trees and power lines, road closure and some minor house damage.

[Bozart]

You should know by now that thunderstorms are small-scale phenomena and won't hit every square inch of the CWA.

Eh...Fishel just said the Franklin Co. tornado report was apparently not true -- no evidence has been found of any tornado -- and none was reported elsewhere in the state. Not sure about the sole tornado report up in Virginia, but...today was kind of a bust as tornado watches go. A few downed trees here and there. Not unusual for any old thunderstormy day.

[shaggy]

Thursday seems to have potential. Chances for a squall line seems most likely according to the SPC. More fun for everyone.

[NCsandhills]

Thursday seems to have potential. Chances for a squall line seems most likely according to the SPC. More fun for everyone.

Yes...fcst disco says that tornado threat is well to the north though, around PA/NJ...why so north?  It appears down here the instability will be there, as will the moisture, shear, steep LL lapse rates....what else do we need???

[Isopycnic]

Yes...fcst disco says that tornado threat is well to the north though, around PA/NJ...why so north?  It appears down here the instability will be there, as will the moisture, shear, steep LL lapse rates....what else do we need???

JoMo. If he's not on board there won't be any tornado's

[Jon]

Yes...fcst disco says that tornado threat is well to the north though, around PA/NJ...why so north?  It appears down here the instability will be there, as will the moisture, shear, steep LL lapse rates....what else do we need???

Where do you see tornado in the disco? I'm not seeing it... The delmarva area has a larger threat in general because of the positioning of the surface low...but NE NC isn't out of the woods yet and I imagine there's going to be plenty of disco involving tornadoes in NE NC as we head into Thursday.

[AJF0602]

Confirmed tornado in Jacksonville yesterday, I went outside and saw the clouds coming in and I thought they looked very weird, turns out it was from a tornado a mile away from me lol I didn't pay much attention because there was no warning

[downeastnc]

Where do you see tornado in the disco? I'm not seeing it... The delmarva area has a larger threat in general because of the positioning of the surface low...but NE NC isn't out of the woods yet and I imagine there's going to be plenty of disco involving tornadoes in NE NC as we head into Thursday.

I think he was more asking WHY we didnt have a serious tornado threat given the instability, the short answer is the winds here at different levels are going to be unidirectional meaning the flow is all in the same direction. Closer to the actual low up north they will have winds blowing from different directions as you ascend so updraft that form can rotate.....

 

We are looking at a really good shot however of catching  a derecho type system especially the northern half of the central and eastern part of the state.

[metalicwx366]

JoMo. If he's not on board there won't be any tornado's

lol

Sent from my HTCEVOV4G using using Tapatalk Tapatalk HD

[NCsandhills]

Where do you see tornado in the disco? I'm not seeing it... The delmarva area has a larger threat in general because of the positioning of the surface low...but NE NC isn't out of the woods yet and I imagine there's going to be plenty of disco involving tornadoes in NE NC as we head into Thursday.

...wow, i don't see it now. I swear to god it was in there earlier, which was why I mentioned it...dude. I guess I was trippin. It was at around 230

[mackerel_sky]

Confirmed EF-1 tornado 5 miles ENE of Piedmont , SC! Yesterday! This is a Greenville suburb and about three miles N of mby. Close call

[Brick Tamland]

How serious does the severe threat look for Thursday?

[metalicwx366]

How serious does the severe threat look for Thursday?

Nothing but probably a isolated damaging wind threat with I'm assuming a Mesoscale Convective System moving south. Obviously it may be fairly widespread damaging wind threat further N and E along the NC coast, E VA, and the Chesapeake Bay where there will be stronger dynamics. Tomorrow definitely looks like a derecho could be ongoing. Maybe a quick spin up of a tomato or two.

[NCsandhills]

Where do you see tornado in the disco? I'm not seeing it... The delmarva area has a larger threat in general because of the positioning of the surface low...but NE NC isn't out of the woods yet and I imagine there's going to be plenty of disco involving tornadoes in NE NC as we head into Thursday.

Here it is now, but this is exactly what I read yesterday before I posted here....strange that is disappeared...do they ever edit the AFD?

 

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED

ACROSS THE REGION THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM A PATTERN

RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT IN CENTRAL NC

WOULD PRIMARILY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN

UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG

EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL ASSOC/W THE MODIFIED EML IN PLACE AND

INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. W/REGARD TO CONVECTIVE

MODE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION

PRIOR TO RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS GIVEN HIGH DCAPE /STRONG

COLD POOLS/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS

THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH (I.E.

NORTHERN VA/MD/PA/NJ) AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

COAST...

 

I think he was more asking WHY we didnt have a serious tornado threat given the instability, the short answer is the winds here at different levels are going to be unidirectional meaning the flow is all in the same direction. Closer to the actual low up north they will have winds blowing from different directions as you ascend so updraft that form can rotate.....

 

We are looking at a really good shot however of catching  a derecho type system especially the northern half of the central and eastern part of the state.

So pretty much the only way we would have a shot at a tornado is if the low tracked further south? (which isn't happening but i'm asking from a learners standpoint)

[Brick Tamland]

Meanwhile, it looks like Chicago is under the gun today.

 

[metalicwx366]

I have lots of family up there.

[Jon]

Here it is now, but this is exactly what I read yesterday before I posted here....strange that is disappeared...do they ever edit the AFD?

 

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED

ACROSS THE REGION THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM A PATTERN

RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT IN CENTRAL NC

WOULD PRIMARILY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN

UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG

EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL ASSOC/W THE MODIFIED EML IN PLACE AND

INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. W/REGARD TO CONVECTIVE

MODE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION

PRIOR TO RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS GIVEN HIGH DCAPE /STRONG

COLD POOLS/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS

THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH (I.E.

NORTHERN VA/MD/PA/NJ) AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

COAST...

 

So pretty much the only way we would have a shot at a tornado is if the low tracked further south? (which isn't happening but i'm asking from a learners standpoint)

Certainly not the only way, but it helps. The issue with NC right now is that we're going to likely get a squall line that creates a lot of wind, but the low level wind shear will be low and the wind profile likely unidirectional, as downeast said...when you see the wind barbs on soundings near the bottom of the wind profile going "crazy" and opposite of one another, that's indicitive of a good wind profile for tornado development, given other parameters are satisfied.

 

Here's Reed Timmer's "tornado forecasting school" http://tvnweather.com/podcasts/24 he focuses a lot on 0-6km wind shear and 500mb wind and how it can be used to forecast tornadoes. Goes through soundings and hodos. It's the only time I'll ever link to Reed's stuff, but I think it's helpful for someone trying to understand how to forecast severe wx....although his hodograph explaining is kind of, how do you put it, hard to follow....but everything else is pretty good.

 

 

BTW from SPC talking about VA/NC EAST OF THE APPS

"THE 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF INITIATION. HOWEVER...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT."

[NC_hailstorm]

Tomorrow will be an interesting day to watch and observe the sky IMO.

I expect to see some only isolated cells because of downsloping in the w.piedmont then grow and possibly go to a squall line further east.

[Bevo]

Looking at radar, you can see clear differences in the lines based on dew points in the mid 70's verses the mid 60's.  I'm a little concerned that my dew point has increased to 70 in the last 10 minutes - already having gusts of over 25mph well ahead of the southern end of the first line.  Could there be some low level sheer happening?

[jburns]

Looking at radar, you can see clear differences in the lines based on dew points in the mid 70's verses the mid 60's.  I'm a little concerned that my dew point has increased to 70 in the last 10 minutes - already having gusts of over 25mph well ahead of the southern end of the first line.  Could there be some low level sheer happening?

70dp here as well with gusty breezes and some nasty stuff rapidly inbound.

[Bevo]

70dp here as well with gusty breezes and some nasty stuff rapidly inbound.

 

The deep convection in the northern part of the line is moving into DP's of 75 (which is crazy). With mine going up I would imagine that the southern end will have a good chance to blow up as well.

[Hvward]

Looks like a funnel cloud just passed south of downtown Asheville around 30 minutes ago.

[jburns]

Just went from bright blue skies to almost black to the west in minutes.  Wind is picking up substantially.  lol   Typed 2 sentences and it went from bright day to dusk.

[downeastnc]

Gonna have to say the system under performed given the instability we saw and had the line crossed around the middle of the day it would have been so much worse, we had winds prolly 40-60 mph saw some big limbs downs and a few split Bradford Pears and snapped pines but overall the leaf litter and smaller limbs everywhere match what I would expect to see after those types of winds. Not sure what went wrong but that area of lower instability that kinda hung out over the central part of the state had to have had something to do with it, the line choked out and didnt get organized. I  also think a lot of it had to do with the speed of the line, you could see the gust front get way out in front on radar and that usually kills the line, basically the line just was not moving east fast to keep up with the outflow and once it got 30-40 miles ahead it chokes off the energy.

 

On a scale of 1-10 this one gets a 5 it did not live up to potential but still managed to be the most severe weather we have had so far this year. I take that back its about even with the 1-31-13 squall line that gave us a gust at PGV to 56 mph.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1WOMUbFgm4

[Cold Rain]

Gonna have to say the system under performed given the instability we saw and had the line crossed around the middle of the day it would have been so much worse, we had winds prolly 40-60 mph saw some big limbs downs and a few split Bradford Pears and snapped pines but overall the leaf litter and smaller limbs everywhere match what I would expect to see after those types of winds. Not sure what went wrong but that area of lower instability that kinda hung out over the central part of the state had to have had something to do with it, the line choked out and didnt get organized. I  also think a lot of it had to do with the speed of the line, you could see the gust front get way out in front on radar and that usually kills the line, basically the line just was not moving east fast to keep up with the outflow and once it got 30-40 miles ahead it chokes off the energy.

 

On a scale of 1-10 this one gets a 5 it did not live up to potential but still managed to be the most severe weather we have had so far this year. I take that back its about even with the 1-31-13 squall line that gave us a gust at PGV to 56 mph.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1WOMUbFgm4

I agree. It was exciting to follow and watch develop, but given the magnitude of the instability and forcing, I expected the severity to be more intense, globally. There were a lot of wind reports here in Wake Co., but the line never really congealed and intensified as I would have thought. Even the "lower" instability over my area was still pretty strong. Anyway, I'd give it a 5 or 6. Not sure what parameters would need to be in place to see a more congealed, intense line maintain itself. I'd like to know.

[NCsandhills]

Under performed here in Fayetteville, too....except that our grill got toppled, wtf random!  Lol.  Our trash cans didn't even get knocked over

 

[downeastnc]

I agree. It was exciting to follow and watch develop, but given the magnitude of the instability and forcing, I expected the severity to be more intense, globally. There were a lot of wind reports here in Wake Co., but the line never really congealed and intensified as I would have thought. Even the "lower" instability over my area was still pretty strong. Anyway, I'd give it a 5 or 6. Not sure what parameters would need to be in place to see a more congealed, intense line maintain itself. I'd like to know.

 

 

When watching a radar loop its was pretty evident IMO that the gust front had gotten too far in front of the line, if we had seen the entire line really race east then it would have been much more efficient at getting stronger winds, and there really never seemed to be any one point that bowed out to give it that edge it needed to go from garden variety severe to something memorable. I still saw trees down and stuff so it was bad but not even close to what we had last July 1st here. Still close to 600 total wind reports on the day not to shabby.....

 

[WidreMann]

I agree. It was exciting to follow and watch develop, but given the magnitude of the instability and forcing, I expected the severity to be more intense, globally. There were a lot of wind reports here in Wake Co., but the line never really congealed and intensified as I would have thought. Even the "lower" instability over my area was still pretty strong. Anyway, I'd give it a 5 or 6. Not sure what parameters would need to be in place to see a more congealed, intense line maintain itself. I'd like to know.

The parameters would be not living in the Triangle.

[WidreMann]

Looks like a funnel cloud just passed south of downtown Asheville around 30 minutes ago. ImageUploadedByTapatalk1371154278.306756.jpg

Where's the funnel cloud?

[Cold Rain]

When watching a radar loop its was pretty evident IMO that the gust front had gotten too far in front of the line, if we had seen the entire line really race east then it would have been much more efficient at getting stronger winds, and there really never seemed to be any one point that bowed out to give it that edge it needed to go from garden variety severe to something memorable. I still saw trees down and stuff so it was bad but not even close to what we had last July 1st here. Still close to 600 total wind reports on the day not to shabby.....

today.gif

Yeah, that makes sense. Those storms were hauling, so it's interesting that the gust front got out so far ahead. Anyway, I get to tour the southern half of the county on my daily commute into work, and I saw numerous trees down, splitters, and big branches down. So, I'll up my rating a bit to a 7.