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June Severe Thread


downeastnc

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88 with a DP of 73, but apparently we dont have the upper support here in the east so no watch box for us.....I think we might see quite a few red boxes showing up over the next 3-5 hrs in the watch area, wouldnt be surprised to see 5-6 confirmed tornado's outta this setup.

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Just got put under a tornado watch.

Yeah and the sun started peeking through right after I made that post.  It still feels relatively cool outside though.  SPC discussion made perfect sense, we probably won't see the same storm coverage in the western part of the state but those that do fire have an enhanced severe/tornado risk.

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Not sure we're going to see much today except for rain.

 

Worst feeling day of the year here up to 90 with hazy skies and a DP of 72, tornado watches to my north and west, guessing they feel the energy in east Tenn that will help focus the tornado threat will arrive to late to make a impact on any storms that we get here. This is prolly a good thing cause all other parameters on the meso page show this area primed to go boom.....

 

Way more sun today than I think they expected, placed between Columbia and Raleigh prolly have the highest chance of seeing tornados as the day goes on. Lots of breaks in the clouds now for most of NC and SC it all depends on how the upper energy plays out, its really a timing issue if it gets to the Columbia to Raleigh area before it gets worked over then it could get rough....

 

And this is prolly the best looking chance at a true severe day we have had maybe all year....

 

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT:

AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON THU...

CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER

MIDWEST...WITH A PRONOUNCED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WELL NORTH THROUGH

THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CANADA. DOWNSTREAM...NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE

TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY

(AND AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW) TO TRACK EAST/SE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA

THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE...SOUTHERLY

LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT RICH BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON THU...UNDERNEATH STEEP (7-7.5 C/KM)

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED

LAYER...YIELDING STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS

3000 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING WESTERLY

FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON

THE ORDER OF 35-45 KT (STRONGEST TO THE NORTH)...MORE THAN

SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION ESP. IN THE PRESENCE OF

STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

GIVEN EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC FORCING...STRONG DESTABILIZATION

/ATYPICALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS/ AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER

SHEAR...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER

EPISODE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THU AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. AT THIS RANGE DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...

ESPECIALLY GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION TO CROSS THE

MOUNTAINS THU MORNING. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THIS

TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL

AND DAMAGING WINDS AND A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR DISCRETE CELLS

PRIOR TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS GIVEN HIGH DCAPE /COLD POOLS/...

STRONG INSTABILITY AND LITTLE OR NO CAPPING BY PEAK HEATING. IN THIS

SETUP...THE BEST TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN TO THE NORTH

ACROSS VA/DELMARVA...IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE SFC LOW TRACK AND

WARM FRONT...THOUGH THESE TYPE OF DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN

AT 72+ HRS OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ROUGHLY

AS-IS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES AT 50% AND HIGHS 90-95F...WARMEST EAST.

LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL

PASSAGE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACK OFFSHORE THE

MID-ATLANTIC.

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/rah/flash-vis.html

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I have another question...(if y'all are getting sick of my questions, say so and I will simply lurk from now on)

 

But: you see the shape of the storm from Linden to Pembroke...it's rather large.  I am assuming that with this storm is a lot of clouds, therefore inhibiting instability in this localized area, therefore inhibiting the chance for svr wx?

 

am I way off base?

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Just got put under a tornado watch.

If a tornado is issued, conditions are favorable for the formation of tornadoes. Please stay indoors at all times and don't drive into the tornado if it is coming towards your area. If you stay in a mobile home, move to a more built structure.

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If a tornado is issued, conditions are favorable for the formation of tornadoes. Please stay indoors at all times and don't drive into the tornado if it is coming towards your area. If you stay in a mobile home, move to a more built structure.

 

Take your meds.

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If a tornado is issued, conditions are favorable for the formation of tornadoes. Please stay indoors at all times and don't drive into the tornado if it is coming towards your area. If you stay in a mobile home, move to a more built structure.

 

James Joyce and the stream of consciousness genre come to mind here...   :blink:

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN

445 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 443 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIRVIEW...OR 9

MILES WEST OF FRANKLIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

FRANKLIN...THOMPSONS STATION...TRIUNE AND EAGLEVILLE.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

619 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

NCC069-185-102245-

/O.CON.KRAH.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130610T2245Z/

FRANKLIN NC-WARREN NC-

619 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR SOUTH

CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 618 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE

GROUND ON ROUTE 561 AND FIRE RESCUE ROAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... CENTERVILLE.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS

AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING

DEBRIS.

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Well, our tornado watch's wording of " 1 inch hail, and several tornadoes" ended up being a 100% bust IMBY.  Just some rain, not much thunder at all.

You should know by now that thunderstorms are small-scale phenomena and won't hit every square inch of the CWA.

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