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June Severe Thread


downeastnc

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Considering a storm chase Thursday basing out of Memphis. Once again we'll have a line of strong storms already in progress during the morning. That line will come out of Arkansas. However there should be even more activity in the free warm sector than last time. Warmer and much more humid.

 

I expect yet another reinforcing surge of moisture from the Gulf. That boundary will intersect a pre-frontal trough. Very clearly forecast wind shift well ahead of the cold front, away from undercutting. The Mississippi tornadoes last week were on a similar boundary intersection. A slightly positive tilt is a bit of an issue. Otherwise the system looks pretty good. If I can get out, I'll head to MEM very early Thursday. From there watch the boundaries and decide. Could be eastern Ark. Could be North Miss. Could be West Tenn. We'll see.

 

To all, be safe.

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Considering a storm chase Thursday basing out of Memphis. Once again we'll have a line of strong storms already in progress during the morning. That line will come out of Arkansas. However there should be even more activity in the free warm sector than last time. Warmer and much more humid.

 

I expect yet another reinforcing surge of moisture from the Gulf. That boundary will intersect a pre-frontal trough. Very clearly forecast wind shift well ahead of the cold front, away from undercutting. The Mississippi tornadoes last week were on a similar boundary intersection. A slightly positive tilt is a bit of an issue. Otherwise the system looks pretty good. If I can get out, I'll head to MEM very early Thursday. From there watch the boundaries and decide. Could be eastern Ark. Could be North Miss. Could be West Tenn. We'll see.

 

To all, be safe.

Keep us posted and good hunting if you go.....

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Stayed back here in Chatt. Woke up this morning and figured "no clear target," so I'll just go to work. No regrets. Gulf Front is returning in Mississippi but not even close to Memphis. SPC just tornado boxed it for discrete ahead of the line. I agree. Earlier Mississippi dewpoints were terrible as moisture was pulled into Illinois by the northern main low. Now the southern branch is coming out of Texas and Arkansas. That'll pull dews back into Mississippi but not much farther north than I-20. Meanwhile the Midwest is falling apart. Cheers!

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Slight risk for tomorrow for much of central and eastern NC/SC not sure how good it will play out, I plan on fishing till 12-1 so it better hold off till after then but timing looks like near dark here anyways. 

 

Raleigh kinda made me feel a little better about the setup but there still seems to be a lot of fail potential.....sounds like folks could get some big rain totals though

 

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: FRIDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING OF THE EVENT WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AFTER 17Z AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. PRIOR TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.
WHILE HELICITY WILL BE STRONG IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE IT IS NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE IN THE MORE IMPORTANT 0-1 KM RANGE. THAT BEING SAID AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE VEERING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

AS FAR AS A HAIL THREAT GOES THIS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS GOING AGAINST POTENTIAL HAIL.
FIRST OFF...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY GOOD FOR
INSTABILITY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT GREAT AT ALL
AND ANY CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE OF 0 TO -20 DEGREES IS TALL AND
SKINNY. IN ADDITION A CAP AT 600 MILLIBARS WILL BE PRESENT DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY ERODE WITH TIME.

ONCE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE REGION...RAILROAD TRACK
SOUNDINGS PREVAIL WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V IN THE LOWEST 100 MB. MUCH
STRAIGHTER HODOGRAPHS INDICATE MORE OF A QLCS PATTERN AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THE DIURNAL TIMING WILL
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR INSTABILITY. THAT BEING SAID...WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE INVERTED-V ANY
ORGANIZED QLCS LINE MAY BE ABLE TO SELF SUSTAIN ON THE COLD POOL
MOVING EASTWARD KEEPING DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 1Z IN THE TRIAD AND CLOSER TO 6Z
IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

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I wish I could understand why GA is left out of the slight risk. In AL today and NC and SC tomorrow...

Timing issues it seems, looks like most of the passage will be overnight into the early morning which is pretty much a kiss of death for severe storms..... still there is a chance you guys might see a little action

 

 

FFC

 

THE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST GEORGIA CLOSE TO SUNRISE FRIDAY

MORNING...THOUGH SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH NORTHWEST

GEORGIA AS EARLY AS 06-08Z OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY IN THE

LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH WE

SHOULD SEE MORE OF A DIURNAL CURVE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA ESPECIALLY

IF SOME SUN MANAGES TO PEEK THROUGH BEFORE THE FRONT GETS THERE.

THAT SAID...ANY SUN WOULD ACT TO INCREASE INSTABILITY VALUES...AND

AS IT IS MLCAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 700-900 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL

GEORGIA. VERY LITTLE CAPE TO SPEAK OF ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AS THE

FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH IN THE MORNING...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE

MAY MANAGE TO SQUEAK OUT 250 J/KG OR SO. OVERALL TIMING BRINGS THE

FRONT INTO THE METRO AREA AROUND 15Z...TOWARD MCN AROUND

18-19Z...AND FINALLY OUT OF THE AREA NO LATER 00Z. EXPECT SOME

LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE THUNDER

CHANCES WILL BE ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE BIG CONCERN FOR NORTH/NORTHWEST GEORGIA WILL BE THE SHEAR. 850MB

LLJ OF 50-60KT AND 925MB LLJ OF 30-40KT WILL BE PUSHING INTO

NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE

STRONGLY OCCLUDED BY THAT POINT AND BEGINNING TO REALLY LIFT NORTH.

BEST DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST

/STILL IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY/...AND WILL DIMINISH

SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT

AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN AMPLITUDE. NONETHELESS...30-45KT 0-1KM

SHEAR MANAGES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITH 50-60KT

0-6KM SHEAR.

SO THE COMPETING FACTORS WILL BE THE HIGH SHEAR AND LOW TO NO CAPE

IN NORTHWEST ZONES VS THE MODERATE CAPE AND LOW TO NO SHEAR IN

SOUTHEAST ZONES. NOTHING LIKE BEING CLEAR AS MUD. SPC OUTLOOKS COVER

THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE 5 PERCENT WIND PROBS...BUT EVERYTHING

ELSE IS MINIMAL AND NONE OF OUR COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT

RISK. OVERALL AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AND FEEL IF ANYTHING THERE

MIGHT BE TWO WINDOWS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE...ONE EARLY IN THE EVENT

AS THE BEST SHEAR MOVES INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...WITH A LULL LATE

MORNING...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON AS

CAPES INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES.

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Slight risk for tomorrow for much of central and eastern NC/SC not sure how good it will play out, I plan on fishing till 12-1 so it better hold off till after then but timing looks like near dark here anyways. 

 

Raleigh kinda made me feel a little better about the setup but there still seems to be a lot of fail potential.....sounds like folks could get some big rain totals though

 

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: FRIDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN WITH A LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PROGRESSING

NORTHEASTWARD. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE

TIMING OF THE EVENT WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AND

PROGRESSING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE

AFTER 17Z AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. PRIOR TO

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT ANY STORMS

DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.

WHILE HELICITY WILL BE STRONG IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE IT IS NOT AS

IMPRESSIVE IN THE MORE IMPORTANT 0-1 KM RANGE. THAT BEING SAID AN

ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE VEERING OF THE LOW

LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THERE IS NO

SIGNIFICANT BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME AS THIS SYSTEM

APPROACHES.

AS FAR AS A HAIL THREAT GOES THIS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED

OUT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS GOING AGAINST POTENTIAL HAIL.

FIRST OFF...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY GOOD FOR

INSTABILITY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT GREAT AT ALL

AND ANY CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE OF 0 TO -20 DEGREES IS TALL AND

SKINNY. IN ADDITION A CAP AT 600 MILLIBARS WILL BE PRESENT DURING

THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY ERODE WITH TIME.

ONCE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE REGION...RAILROAD TRACK

SOUNDINGS PREVAIL WITH A SMALL INVERTED-V IN THE LOWEST 100 MB. MUCH

STRAIGHTER HODOGRAPHS INDICATE MORE OF A QLCS PATTERN AND DAMAGING

WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE FRONT

ITSELF. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THE DIURNAL TIMING WILL

BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR INSTABILITY. THAT BEING SAID...WHILE

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE INVERTED-V ANY

ORGANIZED QLCS LINE MAY BE ABLE TO SELF SUSTAIN ON THE COLD POOL

MOVING EASTWARD KEEPING DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL

PASSAGE WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 1Z IN THE TRIAD AND CLOSER TO 6Z

IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

What are railroad track soundings?

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Erwin, NC... Sounding valid 5pm today... best severe sounding I can find in NC on the RUC as of the latest run.

 

Ixp5n7c.png

 

 

12z NAM for same area (Erwin, NC) valid 2pm...storms ahead of the line could be fueled pretty nice.

4PwgFrS.png

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SPC Discussion...

 

 


Mesoscale Discussion 532 < Previous MD mcd0532.gif
      MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1135 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...CNTRL AND ERN NORTH   CAROLINA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINA      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE       VALID 191635Z - 191830Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT      SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF   AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS   AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.      DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN   NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AN EWD   ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO AN   INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC   TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S AND SFC DEW POINTS   INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE   VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...DESPITE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND   6 C/KM. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES /CURRENTLY BETWEEN   25-30 KTS/ SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON /TO AROUND 40-45   KTS/ AS THE REGION IS GLANCED BY THE STRONGER MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW   ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE ERN CONUS TROUGH. THIS COMBINATION OF   INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM   ORGANIZATION AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED   QLCS/BOW ECHO TORNADOES.      ..MARSH/MEAD.. 04/19/2013         ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...      LAT...LON   33578165 34378289 35878165 36668021 36607900 35717860               34497958 33898045 33578165    
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
121 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
  SOUTHEASTERN WALTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 116 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES   
SOUTHWEST OF RUTLEDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. DAMAGE HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN MANSFIELD...SEEK SHELTER NOW!!!

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  MADISON AND BOSTWICK.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 130

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

200 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

TORNADO WATCH 130 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

GAC105-147-200100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0130.130419T1800Z-130420T0100Z/

GA

. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ELBERT HART

NCC001-003-007-025-035-037-045-051-057-059-063-067-069-071-077-

081-085-093-097-101-105-109-119-123-125-135-145-151-153-155-159-

165-167-179-181-183-185-200100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0130.130419T1800Z-130420T0100Z/

NC

. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ANSON

CABARRUS CATAWBA CHATHAM

CLEVELAND CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON

DAVIE DURHAM FORSYTH

FRANKLIN GASTON GRANVILLE

GUILFORD HARNETT HOKE

IREDELL JOHNSTON LEE

LINCOLN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY

MOORE ORANGE PERSON

RANDOLPH RICHMOND ROBESON

ROWAN SCOTLAND STANLY

UNION VANCE WAKE

WARREN

SCC001-007-021-023-025-031-033-039-041-045-047-055-057-059-061-

067-069-071-083-087-089-091-200100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0130.130419T1800Z-130420T0100Z/

SC

. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ABBEVILLE ANDERSON CHEROKEE

CHESTER CHESTERFIELD DARLINGTON

DILLON FAIRFIELD FLORENCE

GREENVILLE GREENWOOD KERSHAW

LANCASTER LAURENS LEE

MARION MARLBORO NEWBERRY

SPARTANBURG UNION WILLIAMSBURG

YORK

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILM...CAE...RAH...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

330 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  EAST CENTRAL ALAMANCE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

  NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

 

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

 

* AT 326 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  TORNADO OVER SAXAPAHAW...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRAHAM...MOVING

  NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  MEBANE...

  EFLAND...

  SCHLEY...CARR...

 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 153 AND 161.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS

AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING

DEBRIS.

 

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO YOUR

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

339 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2013

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN GUILFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

 

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

 

* AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 

A   TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE TOWNSEND...OR OVER NORTHEAST    

GREENSBORO...  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  MONTICELLO...

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS

AVAILABLE LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING

DEBRIS.

 

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO YOUR

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
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