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Feb 17/18 Storm Threat - Discussion


mahk_webstah

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Meh...not that intriguing. Should be some weenie snow with the trough, but anything major looks out of the cards at the moment.

 

 

I like the synoptic setup of 2/22 much better though we are talking out in clown range by that point.

Just an FYI since no one cares but coastal dudes.Full moon on the 25th so the 23-26 period would be ripe.

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The mid level flow over the deep south has sneak found a way to get too fast again ... similar to the plague of 40 days worth of winter that preceded the last event.  Here is the 42 hour NAM from 12z, used only to exemplify

 

nam_namer_042_500_vort_ht.gif

 

- but there are 3 or 4 geopotential isoheight contours between Atlantic Georgia and Miami Florida when using the 6-DM differential.  As a result of that 24 + DM gradient, the balanced wind is at or above 50kts in general.  

 

Granted, there is a tremendous amount of jet dynamics/potency coming along with the scheduled amplitude, but because that flow is so fast prior to its arrival, the incoming jet maxes are less capable of inducing lead WCB jet structures - those are needed to well up lead S/W ridging, an important key construct in cyclogenesis synoptics.   By the time that's gotten around to do so, the whole thing is swung up toward and beyond NS.  

 

I am really taken back by the amazing power displayed on the Euro with 4 distinct entities, each with mammoth potential - yet... curiously, we get avoided by every one if taken verbatim.  It will be interesting to see if the Euro succeeds in our negotiating our selves through that proverbial asteroid field without incurring an impact!  

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nam looks good for saturday  :snowing:

 

perhaps a nice little burst of light to moderate snow in there, just without the stem-wound coastal low.   

 

I suppose it has happened at least one time in history, that the region suffered back to back bombs of similar ilk, but that run of the 06z GFS from 3 nights ago truly would have been something so close on the heels of the 6ths most prolific impactor on KTAN's list.   

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