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Feb 17/18 Storm Threat - Discussion


mahk_webstah

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He is an idiot, And should be banned from being a met, He mailed it in 2 weeks ago

don't disagree, but usually he's trying to keep the weenies hooked, so when he says early end to winter, I expect historic warmth in March...on the other hand, given it's JB, expect historic cold and snows... :whistle:

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Well, for a little while we can still "flip" and eek out an event or three, even if they are just relativel minor ones...

 

Remember, it snows into April in New England...    but things are just so flat it seems.

 

We got the blizzard and the torch/flood a couple of weeks ago. Other than that...

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Well, for a little while we can still "flip" and eek out an event or three, even if they are just relativel minor ones...

 

Remember, it snows into April in New England...    but things are just so flat it seems.

 

We got the blizzard and the torch/flood a couple of weeks ago. Other than that...

 

I feel satiated after that blizz. Sure I want snow, but that filled me up.

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I fully expect a larger NNE threat before that flip to warmer weather. It's bound to happen. Whether its a NNY/NW VT threat, or an NH/ME threat obviously remains to be seen.

I note the conspicuous omission of the NEK from your threat options.

tumblr_lefsxcQzPx1qf8yek.gif

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It's been mostly rain storms - if that's your bag

The last two nogaps runs have actually been pretty snowy, especially if you correct for the inaccurate low level temps on the model.  Sure eastern SNE rains a lot on the 12z, but it's close to a snow bomb as is and western sections get major snow.  Not a great model for the finer details to be sure, but considering that it's on the western end of guidance, a marginal rain setup isn't so bad.

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The blizzard was great. Not 78 great, but great nonetheless.  We're only 2.5 weeks from March and the beginning of golf season.  Bring on the torch and black flies.

No thanks. February is a winter month and March can bring big snows. I'll take torches after April 1st. Although usually April and May suck here.

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For that you need to look at a weenie model:  (By the way, the FIM was a bit better (just eyeballing it during last storm) than the GFS.

 

3hap_sfc_f132.png

 

GGEM, NoGAPS, and FIM.....what a motley crew!!!!

 

I just checked on the NOAA site and found that the FIM is actually performing better with 500mb verifications scores at this particular moment in time than the GFS.  Interesting. 

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