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Feb 17/18 Storm Threat - Discussion


mahk_webstah

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A low that  has a 50% chance of forming.

 

Can't tell if this is a joke, but a 50/50 low is centered near 50 degrees longitude and 50 degrees latitude (offshore and northeast of us) which helps prevents storms from cutting north either through or west of New England.  The flow is steered underneath often keeping us on the cold side.

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Can't tell if this is a joke, but a 50/50 low is centered near 50 degrees longitude and 50 degrees latitude (offshore and northeast of us) which helps prevents storms from cutting north either through or west of New England.  The flow is steered underneath often keeping us on the cold side.

It was a joke....and I think there is more than a 50-50 chance you are correct.

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LOL

 

Here

 

 

Can't tell if this is a joke, but a 50/50 low is centered near 50 degrees longitude and 50 degrees latitude (offshore and northeast of us) which helps prevents storms from cutting north either through or west of New England.  The flow is steered underneath often keeping us on the cold side.

Thanks!

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So most of the modeling continues to shank this thing farther and farther to the right, while of course holding steadfast with next week's cutter.  :axe:  :frostymelt:

 

 

GGEM is good for over amping these systems, The 12z GFS has nothing, Guess we need to see the rest of the 12z runs, Don't know what the Ukie has, And Euro won't be out for a bit, Its still a ways out so i am not getting to invested right now either way

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That ... and, it can't be winter for ever.  Just think, in a month, the way the last 20 years of climo have gone, we could just as well have a 75F afternoon - just one month.  

 

In fact, I was just looking over the tele's and they are god awful for the winter-heads, with the exception (maybe) of the NAO.    The NAO may be weakly negative for a week or two, which would certainly help.  But the EPO/PNA and ... statistical correlation to the MJO are all banging the end-of-winter drum.  Sorry - it's just the reality.   These latter could overwhelm the NAO, particularly if the NAO is comparatively weak.

 

I tell you one thing that is fascinating ... for me anyway, is that the AO seemingly never responded to a ginormous SSW/propagation event in the stratosphere this year.  Kept waiting for the bottom of the AO to drop out and it really has only been seasonally negative from time to time.  In fact, a lot of GEFs members are making the AO even positive by just 10 or so days from now.  Super-imposing that over a positive EPO/-PNA ...Phase 3-6 MJO, whether the operational GFS has this or not, but all those cyclical coastal it's been serving up on recent runs could quickly dry up and prove usual delusional noise.   They could anyway of course  ... but the teles really don't support that protracted stormy cold as the op GFS has had recently.

 

Would not shock me if we are closer the end on this 2012-2013 season -

 

Heh, guess there's bowling season for those unable to let go.  Perhaps the weekends deal really does deliver.

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Tough crowd. A few days after a 32" blizzard and some are frustrated by the pattern. :lol:

Not sure who wants this more.....the folks who got 2-3' or the ones who got fringed.  When you get a dose of KU, your snow weenie levels are so high, you need another fix.  When you get fringed, you are a desperate but scared to get too invested......the risk of disappointment is fresh in your mind.  

 

FWIW NOGAPS tracks a bomb over the cape.  Gotta love model consensus.

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Tough crowd. A few days after a 32" blizzard and some are frustrated by the pattern. :lol:

Of course it's silly and irrational. I guess I was hoping that we could keep most of that snow around and maybe add to it during what's left of winter -- especially with family skiing planned next week. It'll suck if my family from out of town are treated to a rainstorm, although even that might excite them since they're from AZ and any precip is an event.

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That ... and, it can't be winter for ever.  Just think, in a month, the way the last 20 years of climo have gone, we could just as well have a 75F afternoon - just one month.  

 

In fact, I was just looking over the tele's and they are god awful for the winter-heads, with the exception (maybe) of the NAO.    The NAO may be weakly negative for a week or two, which would certainly help.  But the EPO/PNA and ... statistical correlation to the MJO are all banging the end-of-winter drum.  Sorry - it's just the reality.   These latter could overwhelm the NAO, particularly if the NAO is comparatively weak.

 

I tell you one thing that is fascinating ... for me anyway, is that the AO seemingly never responded to a ginormous SSW/propagation event in the stratosphere this year.  Kept waiting for the bottom of the AO to drop out and it really has only been seasonally negative from time to time.  In fact, a lot of GEFs members are making the AO even positive by just 10 or so days from now.  Super-imposing that over a positive EPO/-PNA ...Phase 3-6 MJO, whether the operational GFS has this or not, but all those cyclical coastal it's been serving up on recent runs could quickly dry up and prove usual delusional noise.   They could anyway of course  ... but the teles really don't support that protracted stormy cold as the op GFS has had recently.

 

Would not shock me if we are closer the end on this 2012-2013 season -

 

Heh, guess there's bowling season for those unable to let go.  Perhaps the weekends deal really does deliver.

See, I think that's why some here are getting edgy. We're not quite half-way through what's supposed to be one of our core winter months, and there's the sense that time is rapidly running out. The fact that many of us just had a KU should be some solace, but I think in some ways it only heightens our awareness of what we'll be missing. I enjoy all four seasons as much as the next guy, but I'm not quite ready to let go of this one. Maybe if I could fast-forward past mud/cutoff-low season and go straight to late May......

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