Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 i like how you selectively pick your geographic location based on season / event / timing. in spring you are never ENE. In snowy situations like this I resemble ENE more than WNe. In spring when its backdoor and misery season I resemble WNe more than ENE. It changes depending on the season and setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 at 45h, looks like a miss for everybody cept possibly, the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Meh. NAM is yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah they'll be rivers off Mt Scalp today while you guys stay relatively cool. That's impossible. We here in gc have the same climo as tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 NAM is a miss on the coastal. Advisory event on the cape, 1-3" elsewhere from various sources(Either front end tonight/tomorrow or the coastal). -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Scraper, This is one of the scenarios that could quite possibly be the outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Stuff like this...I wonder why the meso models are more east. Sort of a red flag. Still kind of meh on this...too many nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 sref snow probs are decent for 4" out here. even 10-20% for 8 and maybe 5% for 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Stuff like this...I wonder why the meso models are more east. Sort of a red flag. Still kind of meh on this...too many nuances.Nam alone. Rgem is good hit for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 SW CT gets more from the 1st wave that Boston gets on the 2nd part per the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Stuff like this...I wonder why the meso models are more east. Sort of a red flag. Still kind of meh on this...too many nuances. if the NAM doesn't pop that lead pocket of energy out in front of the main trough axis it would be tucked closer i think. i don't know if it's right or wrong but that seems to be the culprit. almost looks bottom up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 1/05 as in the blizzard? that was a pig of a vortmax coming through the ohio valley. Similar not identical by any means. Was also horribly modeled with the models picking the wrong s/w to key on in the week lead up. This will be a strong s/w rounding the base that's strengthening as it does. My thought on this one is its a bomb or mainly a miss. We don't want 1/05 for us anyway, wasn't that much fun here. The nam is probably bogus in allowing that s/w to escape east. I go with a fantastic storm idea just not sure where. Could easily bomb in nomans land ene of hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ride the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nam alone. Rgem is good hit for allWell wait to see what 12z does. Just not feeling anything siggy and depending on snow fromA fronto band can be risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 if the NAM doesn't pop that lead pocket of energy out in front of the main trough axis it would be tucked closer i think. i don't know if it's right or wrong but that seems to be the culprit. almost looks bottom up Exactly. I doubt a s/w rounding a sharp trough just gets ejected. Models always do this and like I said did this with -/05 in ejecting the s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Stuff like this...I wonder why the meso models are more east. Sort of a red flag. Still kind of meh on this...too many nuances. RGEM was not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 if the NAM doesn't pop that lead pocket of energy out in front of the main trough axis it would be tucked closer i think. i don't know if it's right or wrong but that seems to be the culprit. almost looks bottom up The trough position is in a position where little nuances will effect the surface low position. I wish it were a wee bit west. I may be too bearish with thinking only 3-6 region wide, but we'll see. This may have a screw zone giving less if it develops east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 SW CT gets more from the 1st wave that Boston gets on the 2nd part per the NAM Yup, if the NAM verifies verbatim the SW CT winter continues, borderline advisory on that run. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The trough position is in a position where little nuances will effect the surface low position. I wish it were a wee bit west. I may be too bearish with thinking only 3-6 region wide, but we'll see. This may have a screw zone giving less if it develops east. yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What is this talk about a Sw CT winter? Most areas from NH on NE have quite a bit more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What is this talk about a Sw CT winter? Most areas from NH on NE have quite a bit more snow Relative to climo bdr is blowing the rest of ne out of the water, its not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What is this talk about a Sw CT winter? Most areas from NH on NE have quite a bit more snow New Hampshire points northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Relative to climo bdr is blowing the rest of ne out of the water, its not even close. oh I think GON is close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What is this talk about a Sw CT winter? Most areas from NH on NE have quite a bit more snow BDR is almost at triple climo to this point, the blizzard alone was more than climo for the season. Even here, missing out on the blizzard, I'm above my climo for the season at BDR (28", I have about 30"), and my climo is probably closer to 25-26" than 28", and we still have a whole month to go(last part of feburay and first part of march, after march 15 the odds of snow drop rapidly). -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 oh I think GON is close BDR is at 51.2 normal to date is 17.4 thats 33.8 inches above normal to date............GON could be, lets just called it a south coast winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 New Hampshire points northeast?Yes New haven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 BDR is almost at triple climo to this point, the blizzard alone was more than climo for the season. Even here, missing out on the blizzard, I'm above my climo for the season at BDR (28", I have about 30"), and my climo is probably closer to 25-26" than 28", and we still have a whole month to go(last part of feburay and first part of march, after march 15 the odds of snow drop rapidly). -skisheep So you have nothing to whine about if you miss a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm skeptical of how much we get tonight around here...it's warm to start and precip's not heavy...maybe a dusting to an inch on colder surfaces? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm skeptical of how much we get tonight around here...it's warm to start and precip's not heavy...maybe a dusting to an inch on colder surfaces? Euro and Nam temp profiles are 32-33 dropping below freezing, nam and euro qpf are almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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