dryslot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah there is always a nowcasting deal when a big ocean storm happens like that. 30-50 miles in this setup can be warning snows to mood flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 30-50 miles in this setup can be warning snows to mood flakes There's just winners and losers. Don't get caught on the wrong side of that line. ---springsteen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 gfs/ens and ggem look pretty sweet - verbatim near blizzard conditions for E MA...lol Nice look on the 06z Ensm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWeiner_Hater Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If our forecast is bad this weekend it is because of the meteor. Models can't seem to handle that variable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Such a fickle setup. Scooter, it's time to go long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I just double checked archive of 1969 100 hour storm and this set up is totally different. I was intrigued by the similarity of the Lindsay storm preceding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If our forecast is bad this weekend it is because of the meteor. Models can't seem to handle that variable Do you need a tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If our forecast is bad this weekend it is because of the meteor. Models can't seem to handle that variable lol, Should be mining minerals off that, Where is your tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 There's just winners and losers. Don't get caught on the wrong side of that line. ---springsteen And its a fine one indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 like the look for eastern sections. looking forward to the 12z runs to see if there can be a bit more model convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 LOL-JB is going 4-8 for NYC area and blizzard for rest of NE and Long Island....says there will be blizzards warnings up for 2 storms in 2 weeks (one being the 30 incher we just had) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Bustardi just cancelled the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Man, so stoked for you guys out east and up north, as expected this is your baby ................enjoy it and the best of luck and dendritical dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Gonna be a lot of folks surprised how much snow they get tomorrow nite way west. Even Mpm and LL. this really has that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 LOL-JB is going 4-8 for NYC area and blizzard for rest of NE and Long Island....says there will be blizzards warnings up for 2 storms in 2 weeks (one being the 30 incher we just had) Typical JB, take what he says and cut it in half, probably a good starting point. Think this is 2-4" here, but the good stuff is going to be east. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Gonna be a lot of folks surprised how much snow they get tomorrow nite way west. Even Mpm and LL. this really has that look It really does not, MPM will do just fine..........after last week I like a Euro/NAM blend gfs is just a useless model and should be tossed every single time. I think you can pull out a low end advisory Kev! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 500 mb shows you why snow will get way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Scooter, it's time to go long. Yeah perhaps. I do like the look for us, so hopefully 12z comes in rather amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 As far as any weenie bands, you can't say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It really does not, MPM will do just fine..........after last week I like a Euro/NAM blend gfs is just a useless model and should be tossed every single time. I think you can pull out a low end advisory Kev! I'm more inclined to toss the NAM and blend EURO/GFS, NAM seems to be totally all over the place with this system and has bounced around, toss it and the GGEM(the western outlier), and blend EURO/GFS for 2-4" -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 like the look for eastern sections. looking forward to the 12z runs to see if there can be a bit more model convergence. Just got a look at the 00z GFS. Nice banding signal for SE MA/ CC. GGEM rips us a new one. Sort of surprised to see the Ukie drop off but it looks like it's an Eastern outlier. 00z Euro is nice event. What did the Euro Ensm show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm more inclined to toss the NAM and blend EURO/GFS, NAM seems to be totally all over the place with this system and has bounced around, toss it and the GGEM(the western outlier), and blend EURO/GFS for 2-4" -skisheep Right on..........good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just got a look at the 00z GFS. Nice banding signal for SE MA/ CC. GGEM rips us a new one. Sort of surprised to see the Ukie drop off but it looks like it's an Eastern outlier. 00z Euro is nice event. What did the Euro Ensm show? They were a bit west of the op, but could not see QPF. Precip probs favored TOL east, esp here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Even tonight dustings to an inch with the cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 They were a bit west of the op, but could not see QPF. Precip probs favored TOL east, esp here. Thanks. Supports the idea of a more amplified solution. As Phil said, this 12z run should hopefully bring a narrowing of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Right on..........good luck. Good luck to us all, may we all see blizzard warnings and 100 inches! Was the data from the flights ingested into 0z last night, or is it for 12z today. I'm pretty sure that it's for 12z today, which should clear up some of the ambiguity that the models have been showing. I think in the end we see the EURO come west a bit and the GGEM east, something 0z GFS like with low end advisory down here and warning from about the CT/RI border east is probably a decent compromise. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 EURO is .23 for NYC according to NYC forum, so probably about .25" here or so. Blending that and the GFS is a low end advisory event for here, which is encouraging. Thought that the EURO was much lower than that, so being in the advisory range with more trending to potentially come is not a bad place to be. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Thanks. Supports the idea of a more amplified solution. As Phil said, this 12z run should hopefully bring a narrowing of the models. Hopefully the 00z runs come back. Like I said yesterday, this is a powderkeg H5 setup...but little nuances will have a big effect on a precip shield that is oriented N-S. You saw what a stupid kink in the height field did to the 18z runs when I posted those H5 vorticity charts. I like the overall setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think the cape and perhaps other portions of Eastern New England are staring another blizzard down............epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Man what a hit the snowpack has been taking. At least it's down to the meat of the pack trying to hold strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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