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Feb 17/18 Storm Threat - Discussion


mahk_webstah

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RGEM would suggest 15-25 inch snowstorm in Maine (and NB) and southeast NH, 10-20 inches in eastern MA with 5-10 inches central MA, RI and e CT, generally 2-5 w CT, LI, NYC. Euro or GFS look about one-third of those amounts at most.

 

I guess that snow-lovers will want to ride the RGEM on this one. Maybe a blend will verify (half RGEM amounts?).

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EURO?

 

Its weaker than the GFS but crushes ME. 0.75-1.0" QPF NE of PWM with over 1" around Bangor. The 0.5" makes it down to about Portsmouth.  The 0.4" line runs down the center of NH across central MA into central CT with a little weenie sliver of .5" across far eastern of CT.

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Wow, wasn't expecting that. Good run...

 

Its a solid run for eastern SNE a general 0.4"-0.45". Should be interesting to see if 12z continues to trend better.

 

EC ens are a hair west of the op at hours 54 and 60. I cant see precip so Im not sure how that'll translate.

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Nice solid event..I think we might see watches come out with the 4pm package for almost all of us

 

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png Probability 1 Inch of Snow

ProbSnow1.png Probability 4 Inches of Snow

ProbSnow4.png Probability 8 Inches of Snow

ProbSnow8.png Probability 12 Inches of Snow

ProbSnow12.png

 

Congrats friends to the east and in the tropics.  This winter is being bery bery kind.

 

GC has become the new Boston.

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4-6, i'll take it!  Remaining snow pack is less than 8 inches in my yard, so this will freshen it up a bit.

 

Wow--it must have really been a warm week down there. And,  I thought it was bad up here..........

 

Off-topic, but from BOX's AFD:

 

SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO NOVA SCOTIA SPREADING SNOW UP THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS THEREAFTER INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

 

It's February.  If this isn't the seaon to be cold, when is???

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Wow--it must have really been a warm week down there. And,  I thought it was bad up here..........

 

Off-topic, but from BOX's AFD:

 

SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO NOVA SCOTIA SPREADING SNOW UP THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS THEREAFTER INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

 

It's February.  If this isn't the seaon to be cold, when is???

Looks like tight gradient on this one.   You and I are in that 1-2" zone on the Box map when a slight shift becomes a dusting.  lol

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