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Feb 17/18 Storm Threat - Discussion


mahk_webstah

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Mr Zeus please relate your Blizzard experience I may have missed your account from the Top of the Hub. 1717 lives?

 

Never ended up making the trek downtown. Instead ventured south to Jamaica Pond in the thick of the evening with a bottle of champagne in hand. Met up with some Irishmen about a third of the way around and they traded some beers for some bubbly. Watched some idiots try to body slide down a hill when neither the hill nor the body were quite built correctly for the event. When I left my house I cleared the front steps. When I returned an hour and change later, they were completely buried again. My roommate and I made chicken and waffles for dinner, and those who chose to hunker down in my apartment for the storm joined me in getting blotto for most of it. Shoveled the waffles off on Saturday. Love a good storm. Got over two feet, but didn't bother to get a precise measurement because the drifting in my area was ridiculous. Good times.

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not to burst any bubbles but the GGEM has all kinds of odd wave interferences embedded in the trough as a whole, well before interacting with the ambient baroclinic field along the coast ... enough so that the run should not be used.   Back to your regularly scheduled histrionics .... 

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The Euro has problems with this run... well, compared to say the incredibly accurate NOGAPs...  But, seeing as the UKMET is more NOGAPtic looking - 

 

Not sure what that means, however, Euro seems to be having difficulty picking a S/W embedded in the overall amplitude.  A 144 hours, it has as quick spin up escaping N, then it drills a -4SD geopotential trough presence into the coast of the Carolinas like that ?

 

That all looks correctable - 

 

If we want to be fussy it is technically a trend toward more impact in its own inimitable way. 

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Verbatim on the Euro both storms are nothing like the other guidance.  I'm not saying it's right, just saying that the Euro OP isn't that interesting at face value. 

 

I think it's probably wrong, but there will be a lot of people that ride it even though NCEP says we toss.

 

 

Its taking a break after the blizzard

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Never ended up making the trek downtown. Instead ventured south to Jamaica Pond in the thick of the evening with a bottle of champagne in hand. Met up with some Irishmen about a third of the way around and they traded some beers for some bubbly. Watched some idiots try to body slide down a hill when neither the hill nor the body were quite built correctly for the event. When I left my house I cleared the front steps. When I returned an hour and change later, they were completely buried again. My roommate and I made chicken and waffles for dinner, and those who chose to hunker down in my apartment for the storm joined me in getting blotto for most of it. Shoveled the waffles off on Saturday. Love a good storm. Got over two feet, but didn't bother to get a precise measurement because the drifting in my area was ridiculous. Good times.
You had me at Chicken and Waffles
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Verbatim on the Euro both storms are nothing like the other guidance.  I'm not saying it's right, just saying that the Euro OP isn't that interesting at face value. 

 

I think it's probably wrong, but there will be a lot of people that ride it even though NCEP says we toss.

 

No you're right - however, "verbatim" this run may be less useful.  

 

For one, even though it is immensely popular if not downright romantic to bash the NAM, it has been remarkably stable - very consistent run to run continuity.  In the art of deterministic weather prediction, that's at least one of the colors on the canvas.  Contrasting, the Euro upped it's amplitude regarding the first system, which is "dis"continuity, and is a red flag that; particularly when considering the former point.     So yeah, it is probably wrong.

 

Also, the later amplitude on toward next weekend appears to have wave spacing issues.  So did the GGEM actually, though differently.   

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@AmWx_Adam: Everything about the Euro screams major snowstorm for President's Day Weekend except the surface depiction.

 

 

Ha ha ha - should have read:

 

"@AmWx_Adam:  Everything abou the Euro scream major snowstorm for President's Day Weekend except for the fact that there is nothing about this run that actually says there is going to be a snowstorm for President's Day Weekend"

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