nutmegfriar Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Norlun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The RGEM looks more GFS like than UKIE like at 48Yea I said the same thing a while back.The NAM seemed to be heading that way. 5 H look great, SW interference on the Ukie. Would like to see this resolve by noon tommorrow, big holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, that appears that could be a big hit on the op. GFS from 00z when considering it has progressive bias; correcting for that, its 72-hour position could be corrected a bit SW. Not solid There is quite a bit of FGEN one the NW side of the low. -10c and -20c squeeze very close together over Maine at 75hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, that appears that could be a big hit on the op. GFS from 00z when considering it has progressive bias; correcting for that, its 72-hour position could be corrected a bit SW. Not solid How much do you usually correct SW to counter the bias? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Congrats SNE on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GGEM looks GFS like no? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 How much do you usually correct SW to counter the bias? -skisheep Relative to this run ... the surface and 500mb level cores, about mid way between that positions S of NS at 72 hours, and Cape Cod, give or take. There may be too much convective dump into the max deepening on the GFS as well... causing it to swing violently NE into the geopotential medium (heights) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Relative to this run ... the surface and 500mb level cores, about mid way between that positions S of NS at 72 hours, and Cape Cod. Thanks! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GGEM is quite similar to GFS...probably even a bit more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GGEM is quite similar to GFS...probably even a bit more bullish. Sorry for the OT - but 00z GFS brewing up another MECS by next weekend. Could be a fun period. GGEM/GFS combo FTW? Still keeping expectations in check for about an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The NOGAPS even has a big hit for SNE although it develops the wrong low it seems, develops a low off the lead wave that gives some snow to DC/PHL it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think it's coming. Hard to believe. What a stretch lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The NOGAPS even has a big hit for SNE although it develops the wrong low it seems, develops a low off the lead wave that gives some snow to DC/PHL it appears Yeah it almost looks like some of those big 12z solutions with how it handles the low. Monster hit though for New England on the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GGEM is quite similar to GFS...probably even a bit more bullish. Ggem is much better then the gfs. It even has 12+mm into NYC. GFS has barely .10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So so far in 0z we have UKIE/NAM vs GFS/RGEM/GGEM. Inclined to pick the latter combo, since the NAM has been useless and the UKIE not much better, but hesitant to toss the UKIE considering it was the model that held onto this when everything else lost it. EURO will be huge, if it's GFS/GGEM like, we've got ourselves a storm on our hands, NAM/UKIE like, we've got ourselves some model mayhem on our hands. Basically I'm taking the EURO, when the solution is split, the side it's on usually(but not always) wins. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah..this may roll eyes but based on the NOGAPS input this will be a now-cast challenge that will require issuing warning and accepting a bullet bite if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So so far in 0z we have UKIE/NAM vs GFS/RGEM/GGEM. Inclined to pick the latter combo, since the NAM has been useless and the UKIE not much better, but hesitant to toss the UKIE considering it was the model that held onto this when everything else lost it. EURO will be huge, if it's GFS/GGEM like, we've got ourselves a storm on our hands, NAM/UKIE like, we've got ourselves some model mayhem on our hands. Basically I'm taking the EURO, when the solution is split, the side it's on usually(but not always) wins. -skisheep Add the Nogaps in the GGEM camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well not staying up for the Euro...but def not time yet to throw the towel in on this threat. Even if the Euro isn't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Add the Nogaps in the GGEM camp. Nice, so 4 against 2 now. Throw the 2 useless ones out(NAM and NOGAPS), and it's 3 against 1, although the star player has yet to pick a team. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow, GEFS are pretty amped...just a tick E of the benchmark on the mean and potent too. Not waiting up another 5 minutes for QPF though...here's hoping the Euro comes in nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow, GEFS are pretty amped...just a tick E of the benchmark on the mean and potent too. Not waiting up another 5 minutes for QPF though...here's hoping the Euro comes in nice. It's hard to imagine. The 12hr advantage is huge, especially when discussing a storm this close, and the majority of them too (00z gfs has more skill at 48 hr than the 12z euro at 60 hr). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The GEFS are tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The GEFS are tasty. Agreed. Especially for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GEFS I actually think are better than 12z. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 They dig to China. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 They dig to China. Jesus. Kinda feels like the evening of Dec 24th 2010 all over again, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nice, so 4 against 2 now. Throw the 2 useless ones out(NAM and NOGAPS), and it's 3 against 1, although the star player has yet to pick a team. -skisheep NOGAPS is soon to be replaced by a better model called NavGem. It might explain why they haven't made an upgrade on a system that received its last major upgrade in 1998. NavGem, for some reason, was supposed to go into operation the same day (yesterday) and the Canadian upgrade, and NoGaps will be phased out. ETA https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_namer&set=All NavGem is here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 NOGAPS is soon to be replaced by a better model called NavGem. It might explain why they haven't made an upgrade on a system that received its last major upgrade in 1998. NavGem, for some reason, was supposed to go into operation the same day (yesterday) and the Canadian upgrade, and NoGaps will be phased out. It already has been replaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It already has been replaced. So is the thing showing the bomb the NOGAPS or the NAVGEM? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.