Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hey this may be good on this run. Hey this may be good on this run.Man who would not want a weekend long snowstorm. RGEM like I said looks exactly like the GFS. What year was the Dec 3 day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hey this may be good on this run. Stick with the Canadians...less heart burn. This one is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Advisory snow here on the GFS, warning snow further east, and still more precip coming. Those canadians know what they're doing! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wonder what the Canadian and Euro wil do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Epic fail for one model possible. I'll just wake up and go with whatever the EURO shows tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Thats a near blizzard for eastern MA...snow isn't overly prolific, but that is a lot of wind with still solid 6-8" type snows with even more on the Cape. H5 isn't far off from being something a lot bigger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Thats a near blizzard for eastern MA...snow isn't overly prolific, but that is a lot of wind with still solid 6-8" type snows with even more on the Cape. H5 isn't far off from being something a lot bigger too. Some of the crews from Virginia and south Carolina would barely be home before they'd be needed again. Big one incoming. Reminds me more of 1/25 now in that the models will probably struggle with the particulars for another 24 hours, but it should be a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ukie is not biting on the GFS scenario....Ukie just has the weenie snow on Saturday and then not much else. Prob 1-2"...far cry from the 12z blizzard it had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0.5"+ from TOL-ORH-LWN 0.75"+ SE CT-RI-SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is certainly entertaining. Model wars at its best..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 A solid advisory event for here on the GFS, from about Fairfield east it's .5"+ Much improved trend, probably 3-5" here verbatim(Guessing around .35" or so with decent ratios), and if we can get this general theme to play out would not be suprised to see an increase in the QPF as we get closer. Nice start to 0z, lets see what everything else does. (Well, the 0z that we care about, excluding the NAM) -skisheep Intresting that UKIE dosen't like it, it was the one model showing it after everything else lost snow earlier in the week. What's the verification scores like for the UKIE, I think the GFS and the EURO beat it, correct? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0.5"+ from TOL-ORH-LWN 0.75"+ SE CT-RI-SE MA. I wouldn't be locking that in yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 A solid advisory event for here on the GFS, from about Fairfield east it's .5"+ Much improved trend, probably 3-5" here verbatim(Guessing around .35" or so with decent ratios), and if we can get this general theme to play out would not be suprised to see an increase in the QPF as we get closer. Nice start to 0z, lets see what everything else does. (Well, the 0z that we care about, excluding the NAM) -skisheep Intresting that UKIE dosen't like it, it was the one model showing it after everything else lost snow earlier in the week. What's the verification scores like for the UKIE, I think the GFS and the EURO beat it, correct? -skisheep Here here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Some of the crews from Virginia and south Carolina would barely be home before they'd be needed again. Big one incoming. Reminds me more of 1/25 now in that the models will probably struggle with the particulars for another 24 hours, but it should be a huge storm. Dude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12/26/04-esque. I was thinking more 2/24/89. I know nobody likes to hear that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Forecast some snow, details tbd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I was thinking more 2/24/89. I know nobody likes to hear that one. That was a good storm for SE New England. Bust back here though...we got about 4.5" when 1-2 feet was forecast. I guess it was better than what further southwest got...NYC-PHL got nada I recall when they were supposed to get slammed. Meanwhile ACY right on the shore got like 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Toss nam and crazy uncle hug the gfs...the model that absolutely failed on the blizzard.......I will ride the euro for 1k alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Toss nam and crazy uncle hug the gfs...the model that absolutely failed on the blizzard.......I will ride the euro for 1k alex Yup, if the EURO dosen't bite, or show signs of trending towards the GFS, than this is taken with a giant grain of salt. Not staying up to find out though, will let it be what it will be. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 A solid advisory event for here on the GFS, from about Fairfield east it's .5"+ Much improved trend, probably 3-5" here verbatim(Guessing around .35" or so with decent ratios), and if we can get this general theme to play out would not be suprised to see an increase in the QPF as we get closer. Nice start to 0z, lets see what everything else does. (Well, the 0z that we care about, excluding the NAM) -skisheep Intresting that UKIE dosen't like it, it was the one model showing it after everything else lost snow earlier in the week. What's the verification scores like for the UKIE, I think the GFS and the EURO beat it, correct? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 OT but the "cutter" on d4-5 is trying to triple point under us. Good times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I wouldn't be locking that in yet... Not locking in. Just what the 00z has. I'd hedge 90% EURO verus 10% blend of everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 wait so UKIE was the only model being consistent with a major storm, then GFS agrees, then UKIE says nevermind.. this is crazy what a difficult set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 A solid advisory event for here on the GFS, from about Fairfield east it's .5"+ Much improved trend, probably 3-5" here verbatim(Guessing around .35" or so with decent ratios), and if we can get this general theme to play out would not be suprised to see an increase in the QPF as we get closer. Nice start to 0z, lets see what everything else does. (Well, the 0z that we care about, excluding the NAM) -skisheep Intresting that UKIE dosen't like it, it was the one model showing it after everything else lost snow earlier in the week. What's the verification scores like for the UKIE, I think the GFS and the EURO beat it, correct? -skisheep The last time I checked euro was 1, uncle 2, gfs 3 in order of verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 wait so UKIE was the only model being consistent with a major storm, then GFS agrees, then UKIE says nevermind.. this is crazy what a difficult set up I've wondered how its scores are so high, it seems as if its had a terrible winter overall and that its never consistent with any particular storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 euro i think will sniff out a decent event for the SE tonite.....off to sleep i go....work at 530 am FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The RGEM looks more GFS like than UKIE like at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The last time I checked euro was 1, uncle 2, gfs 3 in order of verification scores. Suprising, this winter at least, the uncle has truly been the crazy uncle, going all over the place with just about everything. Wonder where the new GGEM will rate in there, my guess is it beats the GFS. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The RGEM looks more GFS like than UKIE like at 48 Good to know! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, that appears that could be a big hit on the op. GFS from 00z when considering it has progressive bias; correcting for that, its 72-hour position could be corrected a bit SW. Not solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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