Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Possibly, but my advice would be to not get your hopes up for a 12z GFS/GGEM combo. LOL:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130214&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CEF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.984674099176885&mLON=-71.78395562630271&mTYP=roadmap I guess a call of "0-20" should cover things pretty accurately. I wish a station would go out with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not expecting something like that, a solid advisory event here would be a huge win, as I was lamenting in the thread for last night, we really haven't had a 2-4" storm since 2009-10, 10-11 was all KU's, no normal snowfalls. -skisheep Nov 7? late december ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm happy with a 2-4" mood snow refresher. Nice wintry weekend. Anything more would be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Accuweather snow map has most with 3-6". We can all rest easy now. I'd wait till 00z/12z tomorrow before saying what this will do one way or another. All options on the table. Best to go down the middle and shoot for low to mid grade advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I just looked at the differences in the 12z and 18z GFS runs. Such a small detail has a big outcome. It's fantastic to see how this can change things around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 what about the new Canadian Model...is it the new savior now? Lets put it this way. It was hideous before the upgrade. Now it might have improved to just bad. I wouldn't put any stock in it. It's somewhat reliable inside 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I just looked at the differences in the 12z and 18z GFS runs. Such a small detail has a big outcome. It's fantastic to see how this can change things around. How were the GEFS scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 How were the GEFS scooter Like the op, further east. It is interesting the energy around the botton of the trough came in stronger..probably why this didn't get kicked out to Sable Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Eh, I don't buy the 18z run hiccup stuff. Better chance this just brushes us. I haven't looked at probably 2 panels of any model on this event not will I for another day. When the models haven't locked like the Blizzard it just seems to be a waste of time as there's so much play in the tracks. That said, the off hour stuff hasn't been as good lately, not sure why. Obviously has something to do with the pattern, speed of s/w's etc. I'd stick with the Canadian stuff for now to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Like the op, further east. It is interesting the energy around the botton of the trough came in stronger..probably why this didn't get kicked out to Sable Island. Isn't the trough axis a bit too far east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Isn't the trough axis a bit too far east? Eh, it's not a bad position...but you would need a very strong and concise s/w to fire off a low and wrap it closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I haven't looked at probably 2 panels of any model on this event not will I for another day. When the models haven't locked like the Blizzard it just seems to be a waste of time as there's so much play in the tracks. That said, the off hour stuff hasn't been as good lately, not sure why. Obviously has something to do with the pattern, speed of s/w's etc. I'd stick with the Canadian stuff for now to be honest. LOL, Canadian? We all hope. It's possible it comes in better...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 let's not focus so much on the coastal..I think that's what some folks are thinking is going to prodcue the snows. teh Euro ens have a nice widespread .25-.50 reginwide..Its going to snow a few inches minimum..If the coastal gets going quicker and closer in,,then we can start talking Ukie like totals..if not it's a 3-5 type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nov 7? late december ? Wasn't here for late december, I guess november could count, but it was gone the next day and was november. I'm talking about the usual run of the mill 2-4/3-6 type storms that we used to make up most of our seasonal total on... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 let's not focus so much on the coastal..I think that's what some folks are thinking is going to prodcue the snows. teh Euro ens have a nice widespread .25-.50 reginwide..Its going to snow a few inches minimum..If the coastal gets going quicker and closer in,,then we can start talking Ukie like totals..if not it's a 3-5 type event Even back to here? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 LOL, Canadian? We all hope. It's possible it comes in better...we'll see. Is the Canadian the new King? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Is the Canadian the new King? when it delivers the goods, it is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 SREF's not great from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 just skip the srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 SREF's not great from what I can tell. Lol what low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 just skip the srefs. well something to look at, we might as well skip all models and wait for the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 SREF's not great from what I can tell. Not suprised, they initialize off of the prior NAM run correct? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not suprised, they initialize off of the prior NAM run correct? -skisheep is run from the models below but not sure if it's based on 18Z's or other data §10 NAM-Eta members §5 Regional Spectral Model (RSM) members §6 WRF members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 is run from the models below but not sure if it's based on 18Z's or other data §10 NAM-Eta members §5 Regional Spectral Model (RSM) members §6 WRF members That info is incorrect...they totally changed the members last year. Earlier we were discussing how they initialize. I believe it is from the 3hr prog of the most recent NAM run, but there may be some GFS/RR input as well. The SREFs shouldn't make anyone jump though. Let's wait for the rest of the 00z suite first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 That info is incorrect...they totally changed the members last year. Earlier we were discussing how they initialize. I believe it is from the 3hr prog of the most recent NAM run, but there may be some GFS/RR input as well. The SREFs shouldn't make anyone jump though. Let's wait for the rest of the 00z suite first. Yeah, sorry about that, below are the changes: 1. Remove two of the four models currently used in the SREF: the Eta and the Regional Spectral Model (RSM). A new model will be added: the Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Meteorological Model on the B grid (NMMB). 2. Upgrade two Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model cores in model version from WRF v2.2 to WRF v3.3: Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Meteorological Model (NMM) and Advanced Research WRF (ARW). 3. Increase the NMM and ARW horizontal resolution from 32/35km to 16km. The NMMB will also have a 16km horizontal resolution. 4. Increase the number of WRF members for NMM and ARW from 5 to 7. There will be 7 members for the new NMMB model. The naming convention of all the files will follow the pattern: sref_MODEL.tCCz.pgrb???.PERT.fxx, where MODEL is nmm, em, nmb for the NMM, ARW and NMMB, respectively, CC is the model cycle (03, 09, 15, 21), ??? is the number of the grid the data are on, PERT is the perturbation, represented by ctl, n1, p1, n2, p2, n3, p3, and fxx is the forecast hour. 5. Increase diversity by selecting physic schemes used in existing models: NAM, GFS, NCAR, HWRF and Rapid Refresh (RAP). 6. Increase Initial Condition (IC) diversity by: -Using RAP analysis as a control analysis for the ARW, NAM analysis used for the NMMB, and GFS analysis used for the NMM. -Mixing IC perturbation schemes by using a mix of the Global Ensemble Transform with Rescaling (ETR), regional Breeding and blending between the two. -Increasing the Land Surface Initial States (LSIS) diversity by using the LSIS from the NAM, GFS, and RAP. 7. New capabilities will be added in post-processing SREF data: -Bias correction (by frequency matching) of the precipitation forecasts for both individual members and the ensemble mean. -Clustering with two methods, NCEP and University of Oklahoma, with output including a text table about each cluster's membership and size, a GRIB output of probability of each cluster, and a GRIB output of cluster products for the mean and spread of thirty-nine fields, as well as the probabilities for 2-meter temperature and 3hr-accumulated precipitation. -Performance ranking of each ensemble member, providing different weights for different members in both text and GRIB format. -Statistical surface down-scaling from 16km SREF to 5km NDGD grid using the 5km Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) fields. 8. Modified the snow liquid ratio from being fixed at 10:1 to a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Did the NAM ever have this storm? Dr. NO jr? Had something at 12z, not like everything else but the EURO, but I was right on the border of the .25 line which was going NE from me, and here it's flurries. It wasn't like the GFS, UKIE, or GGEM in showing a bomb though, if the GGEM and UKIE loose it in a few hours, it's over.(Although I think it is already for anything more than just an inch or two, although who knows) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's almost like the storm developing off of SC is the one to watch. The initial S/W causes the low that the 12z runs blew up to be further east, but now that the energy coming around the backside of the trough is stronger..this SC low is gaining steam. One stupid little kink in this trough means cirrus or 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's almost like the storm developing off of SC is the one to watch. The initial S/W causes the low that the 12z runs blew up to be further east, but now that the energy coming around the backside of the trough is stronger..this SC low is gaining steam. One stupid little kink in this trough means cirrus or 12". Yeah its focusing on the 2nd wave, Nam is out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah its focusing on the 2nd wave it's so close to something more. The H5 position is a powderkeg, but little nuances are causing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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