dendrite Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 SREFS really amped up from 9Z. Someone suggested the SREF guidance more reflects the prior runs (in this case 12Z) vs a trend. Comments?Don't hold me to this, but I believe they are run off of the previous NAM run at 3hrs...not sure if the GFS or RAP is involved at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Don't hold me to this, but I believe they are run off of the previous NAM run at 3hrs...not sure if the GFS or RAP is involved at all. So based on that, 21Z may be weak and all of a sudden 0Z guidance comes in amped and it would follow. Thanks Brian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Back to Lucy winter, as in back to the way it was before the blizzard that was of course an amazing event. Just because I'm disappointed about a threat seeming to disappear in the span of 6 hours doesn't mean that I don't appreciate what we've had. We all want more; that's why we're here. But I realize that they can't all hit the mark and that the weather isn't out to get me. Anyway, I haven't given up on this. The pattern is so different vs before the run up to the big HECS...it's a wonderful pattern that HAS ALREADY delivered big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So based on that, 21Z may be weak and all of a sudden 0Z guidance comes in amped and it would follow. Thanks Brian.Again...don't hold me to that. Different members may use different initialization schemes. I suppose we can test it out with the 21z SREFs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Again...don't hold me to that. Different members may use different initialization schemes. I suppose we can test it out with the 21z SREFs though. Plume mean had me at 7 so lets see what 21 does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just let them be weenies. The pattern going forward may be epic for NNE, but Lucy winter en route. But people are forgetting that before the blizzard we also had a good (albeit different) pattern that didn't deliver. There were some excellent posts by Will and others making the point that sometimes it just comes down to luck. I agree that the coming pattern looks great, but it won't be remembered as an epic stretch unless things align right and we actually cash in. If that doesn't happen, it'll be disappointing but not the end if the world. I'd like to think I can express the occasional knee-jerk short-term disappointment without being labeled a spoiled brat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130214&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CEF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.984674099176885&mLON=-71.78395562630271&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 But people are forgetting that before the blizzard we also had a good (albeit different) pattern that didn't deliver. There were some excellent posts by Will and others making the point that sometimes it just comes down to luck. I agree that the coming pattern looks great, but it won't be remembered as an epic stretch unless things align right and we actually cash in. If that doesn't happen, it'll be disappointing but not the end if the world. I'd like to think I can express the occasional knee-jerk short-term disappointment without being labeled a spoiled brat. Some of it was luck, but bad luck can happen in a progressive pattern. This is an entirely different ballgame going forward. I think if I were you and interior New England, I'd be pretty excited going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 For the mets, what is causing the changes that we saw in this GFS vs 12z? Is it a major change in the upper level dynamics, or is it just the timing being off and things not interacting? For someone trying to figure it all out, analysis about why what we see on the run is happening is much appretiated, thanks in advance! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 EC ens are pretty juiced up. Looks like some members must bomb this out in the GOM and slow it down for N NH and ME. There's a widespread 0.50"+ contour for all except extreme S NH and ME. 0.25"+ covers the rest of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Some of it was luck, but bad luck can happen in a progressive pattern. This is an entirely different ballgame going forward. I think if I were you and interior New England, I'd be pretty excited going forward. I am actually pretty excited about the next 10 days, Good chance at 3 winter events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Interesting to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Interesting to say the least HPC tossed the EURO, and this was issued before the GFS and the NAM lost the big amounts. Would assume that this changes fairly significantly with their next update. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The 18z runs have had hiccups the last few events i would not read to much into it right now This ^^ Not saying that's the case here and the off hour runs have been decent in recent years, but woeful often this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Eh, I don't buy the 18z run hiccup stuff. Better chance this just brushes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Mean for St. J on the Plumes is 21.4 ( Once you get rid of all the clearly wrong ones showing much less and just consider the best 6, otherwise 8.84) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130214&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=1V4&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=43.81537115294403&mLON=-71.85262017708396&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 HPC tossed the EURO, and this was issued before the GFS and the NAM lost the big amounts. Would assume that this changes fairly significantly with their next update. -skisheep THAT is the problem, living and dying with each run!!!! this is way too aggressive.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 THAT is the problem, living and dying with each run!!!! this is way too aggressive.............. HPC being too agressive, or me being too agressive? Both I think are correct, just curious which one you are referring to. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Don't you guys worry...the 18z NOGAPs looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Eh, I don't buy the 18z run hiccup stuff. Better chance this just brushes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hope for advisory snows. It's a fickle setup, but I really would keep things in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 HPC being too agressive, or me being too agressive? Both I think are correct, just curious which one you are referring to. -skisheep hpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 hpc Was suprised at their agressiveness, they usually play it pretty conservative over there. Who knows, maybe 18z was a blip and we see warning snows come back at 0z, but not feeling it. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Was suprised at their agressiveness, they usually play it pretty conservative over there. Who knows, maybe 18z was a blip and we see warning snows come back at 0z, but not feeling it. -skisheep It very well could be more bullish...but like I said, one little wiggle here or there and those that need longitude for snow, may be hurting. With the trough oriented N-S...it doesn't take much for an east or west shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Don't you guys worry...the 18z NOGAPs looks good. Now the navgem. I wonder if this one has the opposite bias.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The key is the vortlobe over nrn NY state. Note how on the 12z run the s/w is further west. Now notice the same time at 18z Saturday. Notice how the s/w is east and the whole height field is pushed east a bit. This is the problem. However notice the energy rounding the base of the trough is sharper and stronger. It might also force a late blooming storm. 12z run 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It very well could be more bullish...but like I said, one little wiggle here or there and those that need longitude for snow, may be hurting. With the trough oriented N-S...it doesn't take much for an east or west shift. So it could just as easily shift back the other way at 0z? This is the type of event where a few miles can make a huge difference, so knowing that I try to take each model with a grain of salt, but it's hard to not get depressed when they back off. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So it could just as easily shift back the other way at 0z? This is the type of event where a few miles can make a huge difference, so knowing that I try to take each model with a grain of salt, but it's hard to not get depressed when they back off. -skisheep Possibly, but my advice would be to not get your hopes up for a 12z GFS/GGEM combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Don't you guys worry...the 18z NOGAPs looks good. what about the new Canadian Model...is it the new savior now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Possibly, but my advice would be to not get your hopes up for a 12z GFS/GGEM combo. Not expecting something like that, a solid advisory event here would be a huge win, as I was lamenting in the thread for last night, we really haven't had a 2-4" storm since 2009-10, 10-11 was all KU's, no normal snowfalls. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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