CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 To each his own. Personally I think the type of evolution, model consistency and forecast confidence should dictate if/when you toss amounts on a map. This particular set-up is very low confidence, IMO It really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 To each his own. Personally I think the type of evolution, model consistency and forecast confidence should dictate if/when you toss amounts on a map. This particular set-up is very low confidence, IMO But all anyone wants to know is amounts. So if you don't offer an idea you are doing a disservice Imo. Agreed this is still fluid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This may be a pretty decent run on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevin1927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Channel 7 just went from the 4-8 map posted above to nothing for Boston with 1-2/2-4 just west. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS may already be trending wetter through 30hrs, at least based off of the maps I'm looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS appears to be a smidge deeper with a longer wavelength. Untrained eyeballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I can't believe Bouchard changes his map due to the 18Z NAM. Is this guy actually a met? Put out the first due to the NAM/GFS and pulled it due to NAM? Or maybe someone told him he's nuts to put that out at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I can't believe Bouchard changes his map due to the 18Z NAM. Is this guy actually a met? Put out the first due to the NAM/GFS and pulled it due to NAM? Or maybe someone told him he's nuts to put that out at this point... Even if the EC showed nothing...for consistency sake you don't change your map that much in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nah this run won't be like the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nothing like 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 But all anyone wants to know is amounts. So if you don't offer an idea you are doing a disservice Imo. Agreed this is still fluid It's also a disservice to toss around wrong numbers. You won't be around long either if the public thinks you are crying wolf. Although, people (like The Weather Channel) have learned that tossing around amounts really early has very little consequence when it comes to public perception. The overriding mentality is that meteorologists are wrong often, and the public tends to forget the brazen calls within 24 hours because you're already moving onto the next threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS actually looking a lot drier now as precip shield moves into southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nah this run won't be like the 12z. Trough not as far south this run, It looked better early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Through 54, looks like a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's stronger with the energy existing off the SE coast at hr 54, but the low develops way east I guess to a displaces baroclinic zone and weak s/w. Still a very tough forecast. IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 models coming back to reality after a tease at 12z Many forget the Euro has been pretty consistently only showing a minor event. NAM and especially GFS subject to be much more erratic run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Whiff on the 18 GFS....shows how delicate this setup is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Real close to an ern SNE special too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 models coming back to reality after a tease at 12z That's what I was afraid of. 12z was the first run the models that really developed this into a legitimate threat. If it was a single model we probably would've just brushed it off as a hiccup, but the fact that there was some support got everyone hot and bothered. Would be wise to wait until 0z guidance before pulling the trigger (or not) on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The 18z runs have had hiccups the last few events i would not read to much into it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 back that TA back west a bit and eastern ne would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z RGEM looks pretty amped up....so the 18z suite wasn't a total loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Lol... This post brought to you from the wal mart in KEEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah RGEM is big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 A wiggle here or there is huge, so it's no surprise models will have struggles here. It doesn't take much to bring a storm west or east when a trough is full tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 you're still in the game, but most S and W of Boston/Cape are likely done except for maybe a coating... I think it's a bit to early to say that. Let's get inside 48 hours. As some of the mets were saying, it's a very fickle situation with small changes resulting in big swings in sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nobody is "done" in this threat. Hell, even the Euro gave NYC/SW CT about an inch...maybe two. Calling for only flurries is just as risky as calling for a warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nobody is "done" in this threat. Hell, even the Euro gave NYC/SW CT about an inch...maybe two. Calling for only flurries is just as risky as calling for a warning event. lol this stuff is hilarious. I don't know how you mods/meteorologists deal with it. It is such a delicate situation, one model run could lose it only to phase it and bomb it the next run. Not worth reading into one run too much, especially with what GGEM and UKMET did at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Someone said "back to Lucy winter". Did anyone NOT get nearly 2 feet or more? Those who didn't (MPM, Logan) are being relaxed. What a bunch of spoiled weenies.... lol... yeah, the NW side of this forum has been missing out on these threats, but it is a lot easier to be relaxed about it when you aren't expecting anything to begin with. Its always a tease when the models put you in the bullseye and then yank it out again. But no one in SNE should be complaining about anything after getting a HECS/KU less than a week ago, lol. That's just hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Someone said "back to Lucy winter". Did anyone NOT get nearly 2 feet or more? Those who didn't (MPM, Logan) are being relaxed. What a bunch of spoiled weenies.... Back to Lucy winter, as in back to the way it was before the blizzard that was of course an amazing event. Just because I'm disappointed about a threat seeming to disappear in the span of 6 hours doesn't mean that I don't appreciate what we've had. We all want more; that's why we're here. But I realize that they can't all hit the mark and that the weather isn't out to get me. Anyway, I haven't given up on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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