Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 sorry if this has been posted... but a lot of these members are pretty good for an impact (12z); more so than the 00z cluster; 72 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 My first pinned thread! I hadn't given up on this because sometimes when models show something big and then lose it, the solution comes back fast. Given the models this year.... Of course I am flying Boston to London 9:00 pm Saturday so I will probably miss this one. What a week of snow it is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just here's a thought... this is that same 72 hour, but the surface depiction. One aspect that leaped immediately out at my eyes was that interesting QPF double max/split that exists among the majority of the members. There is one over SNE, and another up ~ western NS. The pressure pattern is "dumb-belled" around these. I wonder now if this is convective feedback - that big QPF max up NE of us swung up the eastern side of the zygote cyclogenesis, having an origin over the Gulf Stream. There may in fact be an output maxim in association with convective processes, but does it really stretch/distract the low from a more coherent development further SW? It is possible that such a feature in fact wraps in sooner and then ...heh, well - boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles look similar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles look similar to the op. well we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles look similar to the op. They always do in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 well we toss Just toss the best guidance. That's a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just toss the best guidance. That's a good idea. Nothing locked nothing tossed right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just toss the best guidance. That's a good idea. http://lmgtfy.com/?q=sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 who wants to bet the nam comes in for 12+ for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Quite a few nice solutions amongst the 15z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Quite a few nice solutions amongst the 15z SREFs I'm sure there are a few jacked members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The euro may argue for a shift east of the amped up guidance and the euro itself probably shifts west. That's my guess, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm sure there are a few jacked members Actually from what I can see, there are basically two camps (per usual) lol...9 members that whiff SE and the rest which are pretty amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The euro may argue for a shift east of the amped up guidance and the euro itself probably shifts west. That's my guess, but I could be wrong. Kind of along the lines of what I was thinking ... Euro shifts slightly west, and the others cluster east, and they consolidate on a snow shower for Ray and nothing for everyone else, while radar has a 3 level green snow wall with embedded yellow stripes a canoe ride's east of the coast. This woe is me attitude around here is really what people are after. Nothing for Cape Cod just because weather is an azzhole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The euro may argue for a shift east of the amped up guidance and the euro itself probably shifts west. That's my guess, but I could be wrong. that's about where i stand as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 that's about where i stand as well. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAEAST_18z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I should add that when I mean shift west, it's more that I expect the euro to look a little more like the Ukie or GFS, but perhaps not as bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 who wants to bet the nam comes in for 12+ for all? No one. That is a stupid idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAEAST_18z/etaloop.html that's pretty much a lock...but i'd shave back qpf in parts of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 that's pretty much a lock...but i'd shave back qpf in parts of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM should be further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Although it is much more consolidated with the energy over the Gulf Coast, it's just that a weird s/w screws up the low development well east of HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM should be further east. Pretty slow to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM is going to be weird, looks like it might be a total miss. Through 54 -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yup, Still not at climo avg here, But could change rather quickly after saturday, If not by next weekend Must mean full-season climo (75"+?), because I'd think that 62" is well over climo thru 2/14. It's 7-8" over Farmington's avg thru today. One hopes that, after a nice weekend dump, we'll not be talking about "under climo" for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12/26/04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Im trying to think back but I think every one of his forecast maps this winter have been too low for CT. Going all the way back to Nov. in some cases feet too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Good thing the NAM is an "atrocious model" according to most on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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