moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Congrats to SNE again I guess. This is evolving into an epic period for you all. Whenever I get down in the dumps this winter of missing the snows to the tropics of CT and the tropics of CC, I ground myself as I recognize that Rick's missing things even worse. I think I'll take missing 2-5" here at the Pit this weekend for perhaps cashing in on a little bit more in Jackson. At least hoping so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 For what it is worth ... from NCEP's diagnostic desk: DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST...PREFERENCE: TOWARDS A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS COMPROMISEWITH LOW CONFIDENCETHE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA ISEXPECTED TO DROP IN LATITUDE WITH TIME, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ADEVELOPING DEEP CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO LOSE SOMELATITUDE IN TANDEM, WITH ENERGY COMING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OFTHE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THEGUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEAS, BUT DETAIL ISSUES RIDDLE THEGUIDANCE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOW THEWEAK OUTLIERS WITH THE VORTEX NEAR THE NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA,RATHER THAN SHIFTING THEIR UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGYMOVING UP THE EAST COAST, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEAKER AND MORESTRUNG OUT CYCLONE FARTHER OUT TO SEA, WITH LESS PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND THAN THEOTHER GUIDANCE. WITH TRENDS IN THE CANADIAN SWINGING TOWARDS ASTRONGER SOLUTION (AS ADVERTISED BY THE UKMET FOR OVER A DAY NOW),AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY LYING WITH THE NON-ECMWF RELATEDGUIDANCE, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BEINGGIVEN MINIMAL WEIGHT. THE PREFERENCE REMAINS A 12Z UKMET/12ZCANADIAN/12Z GFS COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH LOWCONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE STREAM INTERACTION/PHASING INVOLVEDWITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH TENDS TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST INITSELF, AND SINCE THEIR SOLUTION OCCASIONALLY BREACHES THE 00ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK (TOTHE WEST). THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MARKED AS A CANDIDATE FORATLANTIC TARGETED OBSERVATIONS/SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHERRECONNAISSANCE. SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHERPRODUCTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 How could you not buy the Euro after the last few events? Euro = Albert Einstein of weather models. I still love that comparison, lol. "few events" not even close. ONE event - and that was the blizzard... for about a month before hand it really was pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 For what it is worth ... from NCEP's diagnostic desk: DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST...PREFERENCE: TOWARDS A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS COMPROMISEWITH LOW CONFIDENCETHE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA ISEXPECTED TO DROP IN LATITUDE WITH TIME, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ADEVELOPING DEEP CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO LOSE SOMELATITUDE IN TANDEM, WITH ENERGY COMING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OFTHE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THEGUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEAS, BUT DETAIL ISSUES RIDDLE THEGUIDANCE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOW THEWEAK OUTLIERS WITH THE VORTEX NEAR THE NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA,RATHER THAN SHIFTING THEIR UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGYMOVING UP THE EAST COAST, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEAKER AND MORESTRUNG OUT CYCLONE FARTHER OUT TO SEA, WITH LESS PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND THAN THEOTHER GUIDANCE. WITH TRENDS IN THE CANADIAN SWINGING TOWARDS ASTRONGER SOLUTION (AS ADVERTISED BY THE UKMET FOR OVER A DAY NOW),AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY LYING WITH THE NON-ECMWF RELATEDGUIDANCE, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BEINGGIVEN MINIMAL WEIGHT. THE PREFERENCE REMAINS A 12Z UKMET/12ZCANADIAN/12Z GFS COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH LOWCONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE STREAM INTERACTION/PHASING INVOLVEDWITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH TENDS TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST INITSELF, AND SINCE THEIR SOLUTION OCCASIONALLY BREACHES THE 00ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK (TOTHE WEST). THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MARKED AS A CANDIDATE FORATLANTIC TARGETED OBSERVATIONS/SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHERRECONNAISSANCE. SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHERPRODUCTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM. metfan beat you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 EURO trended at H5 for the better while the 12z NAM trended towards an earlier capture at H5, it still went eastward with the surface low. Future runs will bring this solution westward on the NAM. GFS seems to favor a highly dynamic situation in which the H5 closes off earlier and dives southeastward over New England and ventures NEward towards Nova Scotia. Another H5 close off and we are game for a potential monster storm part 2. Still 72 hours out from anything happening over the region so plenty of time to make changes on the EURO enough to favor a major snowstorm for Eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 HPC Beat me to it by 2 posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And to clarify, the Euro trended...did not stay the same. OK, good to know, did not see the EURO and was relying on NYC forum which said it was the same. That's promising, and the fact that HPC is discounting the EURO makes me slightly more optimistic. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 metfan beat you yeah but his post is totally wrong - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 thankfully the models don't actually make the weather happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 yeah but his post is totally wrong - lol. yeah terrible post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 lol. yeah terrible post. I don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 EURO trended at H5 for the better while the 12z NAM trended towards an earlier capture at H5, it still went eastward with the surface low. Future runs will bring this solution westward on the NAM. GFS seems to favor a highly dynamic situation in which the H5 closes off earlier and dives southeastward over New England and ventures NEward towards Nova Scotia. Another H5 close off and we are game for a potential monster storm part 2. Still 72 hours out from anything happening over the region so plenty of time to make changes on the EURO enough to favor a major snowstorm for Eastern SNE.What area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Next 7-10 days could possibly make you forget about Dec and Jan After the last 4-5 days I've already forgotten. We string together another storm or two, this winter moves into the good category between the cold and categorical size of a few events. AFA the Euro, it's just as fallible as the rest in this pattern/winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What area? Cape Cod, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What area? The western edge of the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 After the last 4-5 days I've already forgotten. We string together another storm or two, this winter moves into the good category between the cold and categorical size of a few events. Yup, Still not at climo avg here, But could change rather quickly after saturday, If not by next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The western edge of the Gulf Stream. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Cape Cod, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 For what it is worth ... from NCEP's diagnostic desk: DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST...PREFERENCE: TOWARDS A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS COMPROMISEWITH LOW CONFIDENCETHE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA ISEXPECTED TO DROP IN LATITUDE WITH TIME, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ADEVELOPING DEEP CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO LOSE SOMELATITUDE IN TANDEM, WITH ENERGY COMING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OFTHE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THEGUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEAS, BUT DETAIL ISSUES RIDDLE THEGUIDANCE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOW THEWEAK OUTLIERS WITH THE VORTEX NEAR THE NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA,RATHER THAN SHIFTING THEIR UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGYMOVING UP THE EAST COAST, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEAKER AND MORESTRUNG OUT CYCLONE FARTHER OUT TO SEA, WITH LESS PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND THAN THEOTHER GUIDANCE. WITH TRENDS IN THE CANADIAN SWINGING TOWARDS ASTRONGER SOLUTION (AS ADVERTISED BY THE UKMET FOR OVER A DAY NOW),AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY LYING WITH THE NON-ECMWF RELATEDGUIDANCE, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BEINGGIVEN MINIMAL WEIGHT. THE PREFERENCE REMAINS A 12Z UKMET/12ZCANADIAN/12Z GFS COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH LOWCONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE STREAM INTERACTION/PHASING INVOLVEDWITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH TENDS TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST INITSELF, AND SINCE THEIR SOLUTION OCCASIONALLY BREACHES THE 00ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK (TOTHE WEST). THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MARKED AS A CANDIDATE FORATLANTIC TARGETED OBSERVATIONS/SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHERRECONNAISSANCE. SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHERPRODUCTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM. A terrible post indeed, Tip. I'm not sure if I've ever seen the bolded combo as the 'models of choice'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 After the last 4-5 days I've already forgotten. We string together another storm or two, this winter moves into the good category between the cold and categorical size of a few events. AFA the Euro, it's just as fallible as the rest in this pattern/winter. Hmmm...sounds like what a certain met has been saying to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 When we remember 2/7-3/15, we will be in wonderment of the epicosity. I hope you're right! I'll be seeing my parents in Mass. from 03/05-03/11 after enduring a snow-starved Michigan winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 lol. yeah terrible post. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think ray to brian to jeff would be a nice triangle to start with..........gut says wagons east and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 People aren't recognizing tongues planted fimrly in cheeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The western edge of the Gulf Stream. Gulf Stream is pumping out the love for you. Gotta respect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 A terrible post indeed, Tip. I'm not sure if I've ever seen the bolded combo as the 'models of choice'. Not trying to throw gas on the fire here, but this 500mb chart looks rather odd for that surface depiction: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 BURN THE WITCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think ray to brian to jeff would be a nice triangle to start with..........gut says wagons east and north Not thinking anything big down here? Every model except the EURO gives us warning snow, although the EURO is the elephant in the room. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Feb 3, 2009 looks like a decent analogue at this juncture. edit to add: although potential is definitely there to exceed that event. Maybe a good 30-40th percentile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 SREF's have the .5 line scraping me, much improved from 9z. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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