SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 especially if it has the same run 2x in a row...NAM will probably show a 20 inch bomb for us at 18z.... Yup, as we just saw, when the EURO gets locked into something, it's usually right. One good thing was with last night, only thing that had snow here was NECP models, while here we have literally everything against the EURO, although I'm still taking the EURO. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What is Euro's start time for central New Hampshire? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 some pretty serious cold coming in behind this thing sunday night. that's a bitter night...5-15F with howling NW winds across SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro is also a half day faster than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Will,Scooter and Forky all said its getting there and trended better. Id bet ens are wetter and more amped ya know they don't all have to hit KTOL. sometimes they just miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro is also a half day faster than other guidance. interesting...maybe if reality is slower we all do better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yup, as we just saw, when the EURO gets locked into something, it's usually right. One good thing was with last night, only thing that had snow here was NECP models, while here we have literally everything against the EURO, although I'm still taking the EURO. -skisheep I would not call 2 solutions in a row "locked in". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 ya know they don't all have to hit KTOL. sometimes they just miss.You would see Flurries from Euro so hope for your sake the trend on it is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You would see Flurries from Euro so hope for your sake the trend on it is real i'm not worried - it snows or it doesn't. think odds favor maine...if it gets down into SNE, think odds favor ESNE. hopefully it can trend more robust for the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I would not call 2 solutions in a row "locked in". Not locked in, but it really didn't budge at all from 0z, usually means it's onto something. Hope I'm wrong, but not convince I am.. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tuesday is looking like Rt 2 special on north. Maybe I will eat my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tuesday is looking like Rt 2 special on north. Maybe I will eat my words. Just asked about that in the longer-term banter thread. Looking less like a total region-wide washout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ryan buying Euro hook line and sinker lol How could you not buy the Euro after the last few events? Euro = Albert Einstein of weather models. I still love that comparison, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tuesday is looking like Rt 2 special on north. Maybe I will eat my words. that wave develops any further south and kevin will be chucking AWTs all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just asked about that in the longer-term banter thread. Looking less like a total region-wide washout? It has a wintery appeal here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tuesday is looking like Rt 2 special on north. Maybe I will eat my words. Yeah, I posted the GGEM awhile ago but it dumps a huge blue snow bomb on from NW CT to SW NH - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It has a wintery appeal here Time to change your avatar?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 How could you not buy the Euro after the last few events? Euro = Albert Einstein of weather models. I still love that comparison, lol. It did not do as well as people think on last night's event, it was way too far SE it ultimately backed its way into the right solution for the wrong reason because there seemed to be a bit of a dry nose over LI/NYC otherwise it would have busted severely on the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 regardless of the final result of this system, gotta appreciate the significance of this shortwave. That's a -3SD to -4SD height anomaly as the s/w dives to the Gulf Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 When we remember 2/7-3/15, we will be in wonderment of the epicosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Time to change your avatar?? I don't know, Its been good luck, Reverse psychology ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 While the euro certainly held serve looking at the precip panels, there were some noted trends towards a more bullish solution when comparing the 500 vort maps...it particularly relies on how the front/northern short wave is oriented/rotating around the Polar vortex lobe over the great lakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 While the euro certainly held serve looking at the precip panels, there were some noted trends towards a more bullish solution when comparing the 500 vort maps...it particularly relies on how the front/northern short wave is oriented/rotating around the Polar vortex lobe over the great lakes..Yeah aloft it resembles the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tuesday is looking like Rt 2 special on north. Maybe I will eat my words. Bout time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 its coming!!! This storm would have alot of serious impacts though with snow removal so I think its better to l;et the public be aware then not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So right now as I see it, everything but the EURO is warning snow for here, EURO is 2-4." Is that largely correct? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wow that's quite the continental mauler on the D7 + Euro. Tornadoes for eastern OK with blizzard to the N on D7 ...undoubtedly that evolves ENE across the country with bigger implications on the polarward and equatorward sectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So right now as I see it, everything but the EURO is warning snow for here, EURO is 2-4." Is that largely correct? -skisheep And to clarify, the Euro trended...did not stay the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Next 7-10 days could possibly make you forget about Dec and Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 HPC DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST...PREFERENCE: TOWARDS A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS COMPROMISEWITH LOW CONFIDENCETHE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA ISEXPECTED TO DROP IN LATITUDE WITH TIME, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ADEVELOPING DEEP CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO LOSE SOMELATITUDE IN TANDEM, WITH ENERGY COMING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OFTHE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THEGUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEAS, BUT DETAIL ISSUES RIDDLE THEGUIDANCE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOW THEWEAK OUTLIERS WITH THE VORTEX NEAR THE NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA,RATHER THAN SHIFTING THEIR UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGYMOVING UP THE EAST COAST, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEAKER AND MORESTRUNG OUT CYCLONE FARTHER OUT TO SEA, WITH LESS PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND THAN THEOTHER GUIDANCE. WITH TRENDS IN THE CANADIAN SWINGING TOWARDS ASTRONGER SOLUTION (AS ADVERTISED BY THE UKMET FOR OVER A DAY NOW),AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY LYING WITH THE NON-ECMWF RELATEDGUIDANCE, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BEINGGIVEN MINIMAL WEIGHT. THE PREFERENCE REMAINS A 12Z UKMET/12ZCANADIAN/12Z GFS COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH LOWCONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE STREAM INTERACTION/PHASING INVOLVEDWITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH TENDS TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST INITSELF, AND SINCE THEIR SOLUTION OCCASIONALLY BREACHES THE 00ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK (TOTHE WEST). THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MARKED AS A CANDIDATE FORATLANTIC TARGETED OBSERVATIONS/SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHERRECONNAISSANCE. SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHERPRODUCTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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