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Feb 17/18 Storm Threat - Discussion


mahk_webstah

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There is an outside chance that this can get cut off and hang around longer than modeled. I haven't looked at the ensembles yet, but I would be surprised if there weren't at least a couple of solutions that did that.

 

There are a couple of deformation fields interacting: one aligned north-south through Ontario and the Great Lakes and the other aligned east-west across Newfoundland and Quebec. Both of these act as excellent blocks in the flow, but a little more strength in the Great Lakes deformation zone would lead to more energy being pulled southwestward, lowering heights on the backside of the trough, anchoring the trough over the Northeast. The primary shortwave is meanwhile turning northeastward around the trough, with heights getting pumped up downstream over Newfoundland, creating a block, and contributing to the deformation field over the Great Lakes ... self-sustaining system ... and the trough ends up closing up just off Cape Cod.

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Anyone saying "meh" over an advisory event when this thing was *nothing* prior to the last few model runs...  I just don't know what to say. Can't have a blizzard every week (unless you were in DC a couple years ago).

 

Hard to get excited about 2" or 3" when you just had 30"... but we'll see. Still early. 

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Uh oh, another situation of EURO vs everything. Was hoping to get onboard for this, but with the EURO being not even advisory down here, not totally onboard. Looks better, but still can't get it done, hopefully it does at 0z.

-skisheep

especially if it has the same run 2x in a row...NAM will probably show a 20 inch bomb for us at 18z....

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Euro looks nearly identical 00z to 12z. Hard to go against it.

These kinds of patterns generally aren't favorable for us in CT. Maybe a late bloomer is able to destroy E NE but I'm pretty cautious back here.

Will,Scooter and Forky all said its getting there and trended better. Id bet ens are wetter and more amped
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Euro looks nearly identical 00z to 12z. Hard to go against it. 

 

These kinds of patterns generally aren't favorable for us in CT. Maybe a late bloomer is able to destroy E NE but I'm pretty cautious back here. 

Understood, but it's better than nothing I guess. I also sometimes forget that you guys are in a different sub-region of SNE and aren't as well positioned for late bloomers.

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