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Feb 17/18 Storm Threat - Discussion


mahk_webstah

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14.8" to tie, 14.9" to break the 2003 record for February. 16.6" to break January 2005 as snowiest month on record for any month.

Lol.....thought we were a few inches closer. Not happening likely this weekend.

Crazy uncle has been screaming all week and finally the other relatives are listening.

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Cmon Pickles you are better than that. fYi Feb 83 I was 53 degrees the afternoon of 20 inches that started at 8PM in SRI

lol ginxy!

 

i mean when good rates occur or by later into evening (nitefall) but i'd think temps would be low 40's sat mid pm.  not sure of dpoints or ll wind direction. but i'd think rain is possible if this thing isn't so strong ...esp during prime heating of day.  point and click (just look'd after post) has chance snow before noon then rain, i know it's not a great tool but if this thing isn't bombing i wonder how BL temps play out , esp if precip is during mid pm

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I think pickles is the most paranoid poster on here. Always worrying about where a subsidence zone or dryslot will set up or if the boundary layer will be too warm for 7 minutes during the onset of the storm.

 

There's no worries in this about temps unless it comes way west. Might start briefly as -RA, but 95% of the precip would fall as snow. Its cold aloft. Like -5C at 900mb.

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with friday being so "torchy" is this surely snow that will break out on the CP sat afternoon?

 

From now through March ... you can get that, pretty frequently, too...  The beloved 50F, and then blue snow the next day.   The sun is now processing lower level thickness with a bit more proficiency, where before ~ Feb 10 that is less the case.  Polar air masses "rot" faster now going forward, but the mid levels (above 850mb) stay like mid winter for quite some time (we're talking in the means...). 

 

The April Fools Day Blizzard of 1997, it was 63F two days before that event, up at Umass Lowell.  I remember walking across the bridge to Fox Tower for brunch from the now defunct Smith Hall (where I dormed at the time), in shorts.  The sky was baby blue in between cu that did not even have virga shrouds, indicating that the boundary layer was pretty tall.  Still, I remember taking note that the cloud motion was toward the south, and that although shallow, the cu tops were leaning toward the south as well.  I had just come down from the weather lab, having spent that previous 1/2 hour drooling over charts depicting a 4 contoured bee-stinger passing quintessentially underneath long island.  It was the "AVN" at the time, MRF, and ECMWF, too, that were pummeling the area with 12-18" for that immediately ensuing late Monday into Tuesday.   63F, girls in bikinis stealing an early season sub bath amid some of the yards in front of dorm halls.  Gentle tepid winds... knowing what was on the charts.  

 

Weird does not really aptly describe that.    Anyway, I digress...

 

Point being, can't be fooled.  When the wind is light from mid Feb on, and the sun is bright, and you are standing at a bus terminal, or next to your garage, or keying your car door over a black top, if the wind happens to settle out, you can tell immediately how the sun cloaks a colder atmosphere in a kind of "fake warmth".   Ten minutes of moderate precipitation in a 534 decameter thickness, and you go from 52F to cat's paws and then parachutes at 36 ...real, real fast.   

 

As to Saturday, those dynamics are much more than equal to a similar tasking.  If Friday winds up relatively balmy by comparison, everything is overwhelmed by noon on Saturday already, and by night you actually have blowing and drifting snow with [probably] an important dynamical insert of wind.   

 

Speaking of spring--like snow events... Last Saturday, when the sun broke and revealed an incredibly altered landscape replete with feet of snow and crazy drifting patterns, looks what's happened since?   44 and bright sun every day and [at least where I am] I have < than 6" of granular spring corn on the ground.  The banks are more resistant to melting, sure - but the on-the-level stuff is leveling off with rapidity.  Very spring like out there, if only by affectation. 

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I think pickles is the most paranoid poster on here. Always worrying about where a subsidence zone or dryslot will set up or if the boundary layer will be too warm for 7 minutes during the onset of the storm.

 

There's no worries in this about temps unless it comes way west. Might start briefly as -RA, but 95% of the precip would fall as snow. Its cold aloft. Like -5C at 900mb.

Pickles, Cold Miserable, and Brian 90210 get my vote. That is some dynamics all of sudden congealing after hints last night. Hope the trend holds

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I think pickles is the most paranoid poster on here. Always worrying about where a subsidence zone or dryslot will set up or if the boundary layer will be too warm for 7 minutes during the onset of the storm.

 

There's no worries in this about temps unless it comes way west. Might start briefly as -RA, but 95% of the precip would fall as snow. Its cold aloft. Like -5C at 900mb.

i'm discussing BL conditions, not saying it won't snow. 

seems most take simple questioning as irrational worry....or oversimplify it. some peeps get genuinely bother'd by non pro snow talk...not necessarily you will... i know your just cranky you will be viewing our snow from hundreds of miles away :weenie:

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From now through March ... you can get that, pretty frequently, too...  The beloved 50F, and then blue snow the next day.   The sun is now processing lower thickness, where before ~ Feb 10 that is less the case.  Polar air mass "rot" faster now going forward, but the mid levels (above 850mb) stay like mid winter for quite some time (we're talking in the means...). 

 

The April Fools Day Blizzard of 1997, it was 63F two days before that event, up at Umass Lowell.  I remember walking across the bridge to Fox Tower for brunch from the now defunct Smith Hall (where I dormed at the time), in shorts.  The sky was baby blue in between cu that did not even have virga shrouds, indicating that the boundary layer was pretty tall.  Still, I remember taking note that the cloud motion was toward the south, and that although shallow, the cu tops were leaning toward the south as well.  I had just come down from the weather lab, having spent that previous 1/2 hour drooling over charts depicting a 4 contoured bee-stinger passing quintessentially underneath long island.  It was a the "AVN" at the time, MRF, and ECMWF, too, that were pummeling the area with 12-18" for that immediately ensuing late Monday into Tuesday.   63F, girls in bikinis stealing an early season sub bath amid some of the yards in front of dorm halls.  Gentle tepid winds... knowing what was on the charts.  

 

Weird does not really aptly describe that.    Anyway, I digress...

 

Point being, can't be fooled.  When the wind is light from mid Feb on, and the sun is bright, and you are standing at a bus terminal, or next to your garage, or keying your car door over a black top, if the wind happens to settle out, you can tell immediately how the sun cloaks a colder atmosphere in a kind of "fake warmth".   Ten minutes of moderate precipitation in a 534 decameter thickness, and you go from 52F to cat's paws and then parachutes at 36 ...real, real fast.   

 

As to Saturday, those dynamics are much more than equal to a similar tasking.  If Friday winds up relatively balmy by comparison, everything is overwhelmed by noon on Saturday already, and by night you actually have blowing and drifting snow with [probably] an important dynamical insert of wind.   

 

Speaking of spring--like snow events... Last Saturday, when the sun broke and revealed an incredibly altered landscape replete with feet of snow and crazy drifting patterns, looks what's happened since?   44 and bright sun every day and [at least where I am] I have < than 6" of granular spring corn on the ground.  The banks are more resistant to melting, sure - but the on-the-level stuff is leveling off with rapidity.  Very spring like out there, if only by affectation. 

I am a Lowell, grad.  Fox, I remember a few screaming storm on the 15 floor with those crazy windows just howling!!!!!  Big move today for athletics.

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i'm discussing BL conditions, not saying it won't snow. 

seems most take simple questioning as irrational worry....or oversimplify it. some peeps get genuinely bother'd by non pro snow talk...not necessarily you will... i know your just cranky you will be viewing our snow from hundreds of miles away :weenie:

 

 

Nah, NJ will probably do ok in this one. I'll see snow there and then back on Sunday anyway. I'd rather be in ORH, but life calls more important duties at hand.

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