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Feb 17/18 Storm Threat - Discussion


mahk_webstah

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The new upgrades done to the GGEM are supposedly very similar to the technology that the EURO is run with. Not mentioning that the models are the same, but that they have the same technology.

-skisheep

 

 

I highly doubt it can score as well as the Euro now. It did upgrade its reolsution though which hopefully helps it.

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12z nogaps goes from ~988 SE of the BM due north and is ~972 over SW Nova Scotia by 00z Mon

 

 

Further E than the GGEM/Ukie but even the GAPS has a nice deformation area over SNE with the mid and upper level centers...would easily be warning snows on that soltuon as well. Just probably nice widespread 12"+ like the other two.

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interesting....about a week or so after the Lindsey storm in 1969, there was the "100 hr" storm which buried Maine and to a lesser extent SNE...

 

 

It was more like 2 weeks later...gave BOS 26.3" and their all time snowiest February at the time at 41.3"....2003 later broke it by 0.3".

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Lol with this track you and I would both do very very well

Really every 12z solution we have seen so far except the NAM(which is tossed), is warning snow for pretty much every poster on here. Everyone does well, it's just a question of who does the best, but for something which 24 hours ago was OTS it's pretty great, first time in a long time that the models have had a positive trend late instead of the other way around.

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interesting....about a week or so after the Lindsey storm in 1969, there was the "100 hr" storm which buried Maine and to a lesser extent SNE...

that was my first thought last week when that 06 GFS run blew up. Remember this too the end of Jan in 69 was very dry and cold. This is progressive and the 100 hour storm was a retrograde monster that stalled but this would certainly be a Maine White mountains monster as GGEM modeled. Save a horse Ride the Euro or Git giggity with the GGEM?

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It's not as bad as it used to be, but I'm always concerned in these setups about models "blooming" the system a little too early. DC was burned for years by these while we cashed in. Hopefully it starts getting its act together toward PHL-NYC and not whole over KTOL.

I like where I sit in regard to this one.

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I stated earlier in the week that Feb 2013 will break BOS's all time snow record for one month. Some of the guidance accomplishes it this weekend...lol.

 

 

14.8" to tie, 14.9" to break the 2003 record for February. 16.6" to break January 2005 as snowiest month on record for any month.

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Congrats to SNE again I guess. This is evolving into an epic period for you all.

Further E than the GGEM/Ukie but even the GAPS has a nice deformation area over SNE with the mid and upper level centers...would easily be warning snows on that soltuon as well. Just probably nice widespread 12"+ like the other two.

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