ChrisM Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Keep expectations in check til euro!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWeiner_Hater Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 UK would crush pretty much everyone in New England. The coast may have troubles initially with some dryslotting and perhaps a slightly warm boundary layer. Yup...we're done for now! LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So tough to read QPF amounts on the GGEM maps, how much does the GGEM show for NYC area? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What a humbling science...I didn't think we had much of a shot at anything over 4" as recently as last night out of this system but things can change quickly. Ukie and GGEM are legit 12"+ for many. GFS more like 6-10". Euro started coming around last night with perhaps some low end advisory...we'll have to see if it latches onto the larger solution too at 12z here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So if the EURO goes to the GFS/GGEM/UKIE, do we see watches this afternoon? If I had to guess they hold off until the overnight shift and 0z guidance. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What a humbling science...I didn't think we had much of a shot at anything over 4" as recently as last night out of this system but things can change quickly. Ukie and GGEM are legit 12"+ for many. GFS more like 6-10". Euro started coming around last night with perhaps some low end advisory...we'll have to see if it latches onto the larger solution too at 12z here. Wow....shocking.Big Euro run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 maybe a dryslot special with an extension down into ORH County...maybe BOS/Cape as well. timing will be key obviously. GEFS look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So if the EURO goes to the GFS/GGEM/UKIE, do we see watches this afternoon? If I had to guess they hold off until the overnight shift and 0z guidance. -skisheep Watches likely overnight shift I think.. then Friday PM to Warnings.. just mho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What's funny is that so many of us have been laughing about the folks in the general public who'd been spreading rumors about "another big one" this weekend, and it may turn out that way even though it's a completely different setup than what was initially hinted at before we gave up on it. If this does come to fruition, the sensible impact will be another snowstorm and most will figure it was inevitable all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 maybe a dryslot special with an extension down into ORH County...maybe BOS/Cape as well. timing will be key obviously. GEFS look good. Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GEFS still pretty far east, but looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Watches likely overnight shift I think.. then Friday PM to Warnings.. just mho Seems like a good guess, let 0z back up 12z, although I think if the EURO is a hit the TV mets will be all over it tonight. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What a humbling science...I didn't think we had much of a shot at anything over 4" as recently as last night out of this system but things can change quickly. Ukie and GGEM are legit 12"+ for many. GFS more like 6-10". Euro started coming around last night with perhaps some low end advisory...we'll have to see if it latches onto the larger solution too at 12z here. I mean it was an interesting setup, but this is a crazy turn of events. I guess when you have a deep trough like that, it doesn't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 25 to 30 mm on the UKMET is right around an inch of QPF, which in 10:1 is 10" of snow ... closer to 12" if the 30mm verified, and the model does paint that for NE Worcester/Middlesex and Essex Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GEFS still pretty far east, but looked good. Could you post a link to the QPF maps? Thanks -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Could you post a link to the QPF maps? Thanks -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GGEM storm total qpf through 12z monday. Barn buster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GEM looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Lol of course yeah later bloomer climo...yanked S and W a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I mean it was an interesting setup, but this is a crazy turn of events. I guess when you have a deep trough like that, it doesn't take much. Eh, its just me but I wouldn't yet give it that much, a "turn of events" just yet - we may want the solutions to back in, but let's not put the horses before the cart. These things have a way of "wobbling" around and an OTS solution that is close, either way, is just as much allowed to wobble back west, only to end up east after all. I will admit though that it is suspiciously the beginning of a trend having so many guidance types bumping back west with impact - sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12zgfsensemblep72096.gif Nice, solid warning event for here and for most others. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ukie is a crushing from c ct NE to Maine. Feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Eh, its just me but I wouldn't yet give it that much, a "turn of events" just yet - we may want the solutions to back in, but let's not put the horses before the cart. These things have a way of "wobbling" around and an OTS solution that is close, either way, is just as much allowed to wobble back west, only to end up east after all. I will admit though that it is suspiciously the beginning of a trend having so many guidance types bumping back west with impact - sure. Well turn of events means the current model solutions, nobody saying this will verify quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ukie is a crushing from c ct NE to Maine. Feet It's not too bad for down here either! There's more in the other panels before that one for us, LL and I probably see close to an inch of liquid and a foot of snow. GGEM, UKIE, and GFS are region wide warning, as long as Dr. No dosen't spoil the party time to start getting excited. Then again, the EURO could not be buying it, although I think it will because the new GGEM is similar to it now and it is onboard. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 what mets are buying "tickets" depends on where you live i think. one thing that's good for coastal weenies is unless the baroclinic zone is being modeled poorly, i don't see BL issues being that big of a problem - at least once the good stuff were to get cranking. would maybe start a little ugly but would likely be a quick transition on these solutions. mainly speculation at this point, but something to consider as we move forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's not too bad for down here either! There's more in the other panels before that one for us, LL and I probably see close to an inch of liquid and a foot of snow. GGEM, UKIE, and GFS are region wide warning, as long as Dr. No dosen't spoil the party time to start getting excited. Then again, the EURO could not be buying it, although I think it will because the new GGEM is similar to it now and it is onboard. -skisheep How do you know this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Well turn of events means the current model solutions, nobody saying this will verify quite yet. Lol - right. ... it's just that a defensive posture is hugely warranted here. I can see a fever pitch in here as the collective allows the pendulum to swing violently into optimism, then ... duh duh dunnnn. That's definitely an interesting GGEM solution, wow. been a while since we've had a true "late bloomer" in the sense that it's unclear how far SW the advisory and or warning should be painted. That's always a huge challenge for these last second scenarios - assuming the GGEM is right of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWeiner_Hater Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GGEM storm total qpf through 12z monday. Barn buster. I'll finally pay you back your $18 if you make this your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 How much time do we have for this to trend? Nice, lots can happen in 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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