Baroclinic Zone Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 LOL Cory!!!! :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 How anyone can excuse the gfs at having the wrong solution but alot of snow for us 5 days out and then having no clue right up to the storm beginning is beyond me. As Kevin says, it's tp. Ekster,other mets realize it sucks. Aot of resources hve gone into this and I'm not sure it's better vs 10 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 How anyone can excuse the gfs at having the wrong solution but alot of snow for us 5 days out and then having no clue right up to the storm beginning is beyond me. As Kevin says, it's tp. Ekster,other mets realize it sucks. Aot of resources hve gone into this and I'm not sure it's better vs 10 years ago. That's great it can nail a storm 5 days out, but when it gets inside 48hrs out..it has flopped around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted March 11, 2013 Share Posted March 11, 2013 You guys have short memories with respect to the GFS. For this last storm between days 6 and 3 the GFS was pointing towards a solution remarkably similar to the actual path of the storm. At 60 hour or so the GFS started trending the storm track south. It wasn't until around 72 hours out that the EMCWF starting trending North. While the GFS backed off and went SE the EMCWF was honing in on the final solution. Between days 8 and 3 the GFS was far and away more 'correct' than the Euro. It was only until the very end that the GFS lost its way and the Euro started to get a clue. Which one performed better for this storm? I'd say it was a tie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 You guys have short memories with respect to the GFS. For this last storm between days 6 and 3 the GFS was pointing towards a solution remarkably similar to the actual path of the storm. At 60 hour or so the GFS started trending the storm track south. It wasn't until around 72 hours out that the EMCWF starting trending North. While the GFS backed off and went SE the EMCWF was honing in on the final solution. Between days 8 and 3 the GFS was far and away more 'correct' than the Euro. It was only until the very end that the GFS lost its way and the Euro started to get a clue. Which one performed better for this storm? I'd say it was a tie. No no 100 times no! The gfs never had Fujiwara lows and the firehouse. It had a big wet system moving through but that's not how it evolved. Ecmwf had it much better and inside of 4 days it kicked azz and took names. Would you rather a model have some idea at d5 but not be usable inside 4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 No no 100 times no! The gfs never had Fujiwara lows and the firehouse. It had a big wet system moving through but that's not how it evolved. Ecmwf had it much better and inside of 4 days it kicked azz and took names. Would you rather a model have some idea at d5 but not be usable inside 4 days? Tried to post the same thing a while back but weenies just want to be weenies and look at the GFS showing snow at a 5 day lead. Doesn't matter if its solution was nowhere near what actually happened, it was right because it showed snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 This about says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 How anyone can excuse the gfs at having the wrong solution but alot of snow for us 5 days out and then having no clue right up to the storm beginning is beyond me. As Kevin says, it's tp. Ekster,other mets realize it sucks. Aot of resources hve gone into this and I'm not sure it's better vs 10 years ago. Holy.... what the hell? The GFS has improved by OVER A DAY in lead time in the last decade. Good grief. The whole narrative against the GFS is so misguided. Also, what resources are you talking about? The amount of money, computing, and manpower that goes into (and has gone into) the GFS is so tiny compared to some of our international counterparts it's embarrassing (and this is about to change, drastically, I suspect). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 This whole thread gets all the Nick is on point in here. The rest of you are making baseless claims based on one event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 This whole thread gets all the Nick is on point in here. The rest of you are making baseless claims based on one event. It has a whole winter of flopping inside 48hrs here. NWS mets agree too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 This about says it all. lol thats awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Holy.... what the hell? The GFS has improved by OVER A DAY in lead time in the last decade. Good grief. The whole narrative against the GFS is so misguided. Also, what resources are you talking about? The amount of money, computing, and manpower that goes into (and has gone into) the GFS is so tiny compared to some of our international counterparts it's embarrassing (and this is about to change, drastically, I suspect). Yeah, I agree. The GFS has had anomaly correlation scores (in the NH) similar to the Ukmet model over the past few months and better than the CMC. For some reason though, the GFS gets the most attention regarding its shortcomings vs. the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 It has a whole winter of flopping inside 48hrs here. NWS mets agree too. Where? In YBY? I certainly don't see it flopping around down here. And it was arguably better than the Euro inside 48 hrs during all of tropical season. Just because it's had a few misses in YBYs doesn't mean it's a garbage model. And sorry, I don't really put a whole lot of faith in New England NWS met testimonials re: the quality of the model because, again, they're only looking out for their WFO. Give me a WPC guy, then I'll buy it. As it is, nationally, the model has been fine in both the short range and the short-medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Where? In YBY? I certainly don't see it flopping around down here. And it was arguably better than the Euro inside 48 hrs during all of tropical season. Just because it's had a few misses in YBYs doesn't mean it's a garbage model. And sorry, I don't really put a whole lot of faith in New England NWS met testimonials re: the quality of the model because, again, they're only looking out for their WFO. Give me a WPC guy, then I'll buy it. As it is, nationally, the model has been fine in both the short range and the short-medium range. I never said it was a garbage model. I specifically said that I don't bash NCEP because I think they do good work. But, for this area..it's been awful inside 48hrs. It is what it is. I can't speak for other areas of the country. I use the GFS every day, but most forecasts get weighted more towards the euro during storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I never said it was a garbage model. I specifically said that I don't bash NCEP because I think they do good work. But, for this area..it's been awful inside 48hrs. It is what it is. I can't speak for other areas of the country. I use the GFS every day, but most forecasts get weighted more towards the euro during storms. I definitely weight the Euro more than the GFS, too, but it's like 60/40. And using one small geographic area to impugn the entire modeling system is ridiculous, which you may not be doing, but a lot of your cohorts are in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I definitely weight the Euro more than the GFS, too, but it's like 60/40. And using one small geographic area to impugn the entire modeling system is ridiculous, which you may not be doing, but a lot of your cohorts are in here. Well I didn't say the entire modeling system is garbage, but it hasn't performed all that well here inside 48hrs. I can't say why....just going by this season. Weenies can say what they want, but I'm in the driver's seat everyday and I'm going by experience. The euro at times has been too cold which is the one issue I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Well I didn't say the entire modeling system is garbage, but it hasn't performed all that well here inside 48hrs. I can't say why....just going by this season. Weenies can say what they want, but I'm in the driver's seat everyday and I'm going by experience. The euro at times has been too cold which is the one issue I have. I'm in the driver's seat, too, and the Euro hasn't exactly been spectacular either. The GFS was ahead of the curve for the MA region with the busted forecast (it still busted, but busted less) and it's been great in the Plains/Midwest with their last 3 storms. Again, just because it didn't perform the best in your little geographic area doesn't make it a bad model or worthy of derision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 I'm in the driver's seat, too, and the Euro hasn't exactly been spectacular either. The GFS was ahead of the curve for the MA region with the busted forecast (it still busted, but busted less) and it's been great in the Plains/Midwest with their last 3 storms. Again, just because it didn't perform the best in your little geographic area doesn't make it a bad model or worthy of derision. Well it's certainly lagged behind as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Yeah, dude, being statistically tied for the 2nd best model in the world is terrible. I'm not arguing that the Euro isn't a slightly better model. In fact, I'm exactly arguing that the Euro is a SLIGHTLY better model than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Yeah, dude, being statistically tied for the 2nd best model in the world is terrible. I'm not arguing that the Euro isn't a slightly better model. In fact, I'm exactly arguing that the Euro is a SLIGHTLY better model than the GFS. But those little nuances lead to big differences in modelling when it comes to temps and QPF..especially in marginal situations. It's not like we are saying the GFS is the old NOGAPS, but it's jumped around so much to the point where it becomes tough to trust up here. I'm sure several mets will agree with me. This is the NE forum anyways and the issues with the GFS are just being discussed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 But those little nuances lead to big differences in modelling when it comes to temps and QPF..especially in marginal situations. It's not like we are saying the GFS is the old NOGAPS, but it's jumped around so much to the point where it becomes tough to trust up here. I'm sure several mets will agree with me. This is the NE forum anyways and the issues with the GFS are just being discussed here. You are totally missing my point. There aren't any issues with the GFS (at least relative to the perceived "jumping around" in SNE). It's had a cold streak in your area. That's not an issue that NCEP needs to correct when overall, it's an excellent, world class model. It's definitely not a reason to say the GFS sucks compared to the Euro or that we're wasting our money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Adam, what good is a model if you cannot rely on it IYBY when it comes down to crunch time? I admitted the GFS sniffed the threat out days(5-6) in advance but once it got within 2-3 days, it shat the bed. Euro tima and again proves its the King when it comes to most features (SLP, 2m, 850, 500, ...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Adam, what good is a model if you cannot rely on it IYBY when it comes down to crunch time? I admitted the GFS sniffed the threat out days(5-6) in advance but once it got within 2-3 days, it shat the bed. Euro tima and again proves its the King when it comes to most features (SLP, 2m, 850, 500, ...) Because it's been unlucky for two storms in SNE it's suddenly unreliable in crunch time? I don't buy that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Hey guys, the JMA sniffed out a major snow threat for MBY 4 years ago, so I'm going to keep using it despite what the global statistics say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 You are totally missing my point. There aren't any issues with the GFS (at least relative to the perceived "jumping around" in SNE). It's had a cold streak in your area. That's not an issue that NCEP needs to correct when overall, it's an excellent, world class model. It's definitely not a reason to say the GFS sucks compared to the Euro or that we're wasting our money on it. You're missing my point as well. It's the second best global we have, but it's performance is something to be desired here this season wrt storms. I never said we are wasting money on it...maybe weenies did..but I'm just discussing how it's behaved here. I've stuck up for the GFS many times, but it's part of the reason why I was not feeling this storm until Wednesday night...it was stubborn...but at the same time...it fostered some thoughts of getting a storm way back last Monday when it was so dam consistent on bring snow here. So that was a win right there. Like everything it's guidance and I certainly do not base my forecast 100% on a certain model. Try not to lump me into "The GFS is a waste of money" camp because I'm discussing how it performed here locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 And as you know Adam...we were all making fun of the people ripping and reading the euro ensembles when they tried to cancel winter. If you recall, the GEFS were more bullish with winter at least hanging around in the CONUS and I agreed. So I'm not a GFS basher by any means, I'm just discussing how it's done here since November within 48hrs of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 Because it's been unlucky for two storms in SNE it's suddenly unreliable in crunch time? I don't buy that at all. No, it's been pretty awful for most of the season here. Just looking at the image Scott posted shows this. Look at how consistent the Euro is as compared to the GFS. Far less variability imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 And as you know Adam...we were all making fun of the people ripping and reading the euro ensembles when they tried to cancel winter. If you recall, the GEFS were more bullish with winter at least hanging around in the CONUS and I agreed. So I'm not a GFS basher by any means, I'm just discussing how it's done here since November within 48hrs of a storm. I'm not arguing that it hasn't had its issues up here within 48 hours, either, and I know you, specifically, get it. But go back and read the first two pages in this thread and tell me that was the honest intention of the thread as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 12, 2013 Share Posted March 12, 2013 No, it's been pretty awful for most of the season here. Just looking at the image Scott posted shows this. Look at how consistent the Euro is as compared to the GFS. Far less variability imo. I mean, it's the 2nd best model, not the best. It's prone to more misses than the Euro. Not arguing that at all. But you guys make it sound like it's the 2007 version of the GFS, which was patently terrible. NCEP has come a looooooooong way with their last 2 upgrades, regardless of your perception of its reliability in SNE this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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