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Potential Icing event Monday 2/11/12


Snow_Miser

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The models have generally been showing a period of ice reaching the region, before changing to rain. The NW counties in NJ will especially have to watch this as commute in the morning hours may be slick. The models also may be underdoing the low level CAD because of the snowpack.

 

I agree. I can see central NJ on north having some icing issues Monday. Lots of low level cold air should be in place.

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18z GFS .50 qpf that falls at sleet freezing rain and rain south prob don't cause much in the way of flooding

Temps max out into the upper 30s NNJ thru the lower hudson valley to about 40 in the city. So the snowpack should eat up a lot of the rain

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Freezing rain advisories now out for parts of the area.

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY334 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013...FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...CTZ005>007-009>011-NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>071-078>081-177-179-110500-/O.NEW.KOKX.ZR.Y.0001.130211T0800Z-130211T1400Z/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-334 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAINADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF  NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...AND LONG  ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AND  SLEET AT TIMES.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE.* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AND  SLEET...WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY  MORNING. UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK AND ICY. CONDITIONS  SHOULD IMPROVE LATE MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE  WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.&&$$
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Upton issued a freezing rain advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

334 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

...FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-

WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-

WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-

NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-

334 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST

MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...AND LONG

ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AND

SLEET AT TIMES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AND

SLEET...WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

MORNING. UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK AND ICY. CONDITIONS

SHOULD IMPROVE LATE MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE

WINTRY MIX CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

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Snowpack will still remain in tact, even if its only a foot. Not much rain and temps shouldn't break 45

 

Agree. I've noticed when we get freezing rain on top of snow cover, it helps protect some of the snow from melting when temps warm and change to rain. That's what happened on 2/2/2011. Except we have much less freezing rain this time around.

 

EDIT: Did anyone else notice the date is wrong, it's 2013 not 2012 lol. I still do that too.

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Some pretty crazy radiational cooling going on out in Eastern Long Island. It's already down to 9 degrees in Westhampton. With that said, I personally don't think freezing rain will be an issue for most of us. Temps here in NE NJ have risen about 5 degrees over the last few hours as the skies have clouded over and a light southerly wind has kicked in. Temps are even above freezing out in Scranton and Allentown, PA. I'd expect temps to continue rising steadily throughout the night. And with any precipitation still being several hours away, this should give most areas ample time to warm above freezing. 

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luckily this whole mess is almost out of here so it doesn't mess up the snowcover to much especially down here where we only got about 6 inches in northern middlesex county - only have about 4 to 5 inches left and should lose some of that before thursdays potential event

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

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