capitalweather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Check it out... Sunday snow threat is back, sort of... http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/sunday_snow_threat_is_back_sor.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Jason, Thanks, I've finally gotten where I sometimes can get on and sometimes not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nice discussion, Wes. I think you hit the nail on the head. Still a lot of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 i was just looking for this a bit ago... great read as always wes. this is a tough one, but you've been pretty steadfast and i think you're still probably looking better than a snow weenie might hope. i'll take anything though. im still hoping the 0z suite is huge tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nice discussion, Wes. I think you hit the nail on the head. Still a lot of uncertainty. Yeah, I think it needs to be a 50/50 chance though....30% is basically saying its unlikely to happen, But thats just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah, I think it needs to be a 50/50 chance though....30% is basically saying its unlikely to happen, But thats just my opinion. I had 50% until I saw the 18Z gfs and its ensembles and the sref members from 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Thanks, Wes. Always good to hear your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Everybody gets excited in the summer when there is a 2% chance of a tornado...Wes' probabilities are crazy high if you compare them to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wes, I've followed models for a long time, studied in met. school for 2 years before changing majors. I've honestly never seen the EURO do what its done with regards to this storm. It goes from being way out to sea within 96 HRs, all the other models which usually are right on its tail then go out to sea as well. Last second two runs trend majorly west within 84 hours. Now, I repeat, I DO NOT want to get flamed for this comment, and I'm not comparing the storms in any way 500mb, 300mb, etc, just with model behavior. If you may recall the Jan 25 2000 storm was a storm where the EURO continually showed it, but the American models did not budge until within 24 hours or so. Could this happen again? I'll say this, and tell me if you agree or disagree, but if the EURO shows a big hit at 00z and the other models continue to show out to sea, I think the local media people in the big cities in the NE better be careful. If the EURO goes East tonight at 00z, then it was just a hiccup, but a RARE hiccup at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wes, I've followed models for a long time, studied in met. school for 2 years before changing majors. I've honestly never seen the EURO do what its done with regards to this storm. It goes from being way out to sea within 96 HRs, all the other models which usually are right on its tail then go out to sea as well. Last second two runs trend majorly west within 84 hours. Now, I repeat, I DO NOT want to get flamed for this comment, and I'm not comparing the storms in any way 500mb, 300mb, etc, just with model behavior. If you may recall the Jan 25 2000 storm was a storm where the EURO continually showed it, but the American models did not budge until within 24 hours or so. Could this happen again? I'll say this, and tell me if you agree or disagree, but if the EURO shows a big hit at 00z and the other models continue to show out to sea, I think the local media people in the big cities in the NE better be careful. If the EURO goes East tonight at 00z, then it was just a hiccup, but a RARE hiccup at that. It sounds like you're saying I should have followed the euro, that could be right but I don't think its scores are that much superior to just follow it. My guess is the models work back towards some middle ground but who knows,you could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wes (or anyone for that matter) is there a particular reason you discount the Euro run when so many seem to follow its every move as if its gospel? It seems clear that there has to be some issue there considering its relatively quick flop but it was showing something similar in the long range a few days back, no? Is it just the weight of guidance against it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wes (or anyone for that matter) is there a particular reason you discount the Euro run when so many seem to follow its every move as if its gospel? It seems clear that there has to be some issue there considering its relatively quick flop but it was showing something similar in the long range a few days back, no? Is it just the weight of guidance against it? Yes, and today, I had no access to the euro ensemble mean as I couldn't get to this server or I might have kept my higher probabilities as they balance out the sref. Unfortunately, I couldn't see the mean never have access to the individual members. My assessment could very well be hubris or cowardice. I'm not sure which. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Honestly if the EURO flips again tonight, its going to be hard to trust it for the rest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wow! Not only are you an amazing meteorologist, but also an excellent writer. Thanks for sharing your knowledge and wisdom regarding potential weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro caves to wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro caves to wes Wes secretly worked undercover at the ECMWF gathering intelligence for the HPC on the development of the 4DVAR system in the early 1990's. However, while he was there he secretly scripted in a control code that enables him to phase storms at his own whim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 euro caves to wes Makes me feel a lot better. My pops don't look so bad thanks to Steve's input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Honestly if the EURO flips again tonight, its going to be hard to trust it for the rest of the year. It may be a little better than the GFS scorewise but is a model and in this flow pattern, all are going to struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would be very wary of extreme model solutions either way in this pattern. I don't like how the guidance from 12Z or 00Z is handling the energy in the Pacific and certainly not that disturbance in the southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would be very wary of extreme model solutions either way in this pattern. I don't like how the guidance from 12Z or 00Z is handling the energy in the Pacific and certainly not that disturbance in the southern Plains. Looks like the sref ensemble members are still going to be all over the place and until the northern of the two pacific shortwaves gets inland, there still is wiggle room. I wouldn't change my POPS for DC yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nice discussion. Best to go down the middle of the road until the models come into better agreement. I'll make my storm forecast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nice discussion. Best to go down the middle of the road until the models come into better agreement. I'll make my storm forecast tonight. I'm hoping this run will finally give us some kind of model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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