sferic Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Here's a fantasy, NYC and surroundings, 6 to 8 wed night into Thursday and 12-18 inches saturday..... and then something elese a few days later freshening it all up. Nothing matches the snow on the ground two years ago, love to eclipse that here in Nass cnty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gefs have a few big hit and brushes. Kind of what you expect at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Is there such a thing as having to much of a perfect setup???? Is there such a thing as having to much of a perfect setup???? Yeh 96 stick around for 20 years , You will see it again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Is there such a thing as having to much of a perfect setup???? Not really. I mean if its perfect its perfect. There is however a difference between a perfect setup and perfect storm (not the one from 1991 lol). Blizzard of 93 was a triple phaser a very rare event. Some would say this was a perfect storm in the sense that all the jet streams phased. It was great inland and produced over 40 inches in syracuse. But it obviously turned to rain/ice at the coast. So too much energy too early equals a storm that's too amped and pumping heights and taking a further west track. This could 100% occur in this setup, however, if it did it would only be because it is a huge storm, so would still be exciting to see even if its not an all snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Is there such a thing as having to much of a perfect setup???? Sure. March 1993 for many people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Given the energy that's crashing into the west coast, I'm definitely much more worried about OTS than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Given the energy that's crashing into the west coast, I'm definitely much more worried about OTS than rain. Agreed. The trough is deep/sharp, but the height rise in the Central Plains is a bit concerning. The ridge is fairly far east of the ideal position, so I would not be surprised to see a coastal scraper/near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Agreed. The trough is deep/sharp, but the height rise in the Central Plains is a bit concerning. The ridge is fairly far east of the ideal position, so I would not be surprised to see a coastal scraper/near miss. I think the entire set up is positioned just a little too far east for us right now on almost every model. Any time you have a shortwave that digs to the Gulf Coast and still ends up out to sea, you are going to need everything to adjust west as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think the entire set up is positioned just a little too far east for us right now on almost every model. Any time you have a shortwave that digs to the Gulf Coast and still ends up out to sea, you are going to need everything to adjust west as a whole. Agreed... that monster full latitude trough has incredible potential but is positioned a touch too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Jesus the 18z ensembles have some crazy solutions, try P001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Andyhb can u send me the link or post a pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Andyhb can u send me the link or post a pic? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Lol. P008 is another massive hit, scrapes New England though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Lol. Superstorm of 93 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 wow. a few of ensembles show huge hit, others NOTHING. I expect to see a change tonight at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It drops the H5 low to sub-490 dm after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It drops the H5 low to sub-490 dm after that... lol...some of those member have goliaths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think the entire set up is positioned just a little too far east for us right now on almost every model. Any time you have a shortwave that digs to the Gulf Coast and still ends up out to sea, you are going to need everything to adjust west as a whole. Given how amped the NOGAPS is, I think the shift west will eventually be made... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Any word on the gfs? or is it not in frame yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Any word on the gfs? or is it not in frame yet It just started running. Give it another half an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Any word on the gfs? or is it not in frame yet Bookmark this; these are the times each individual model run comes out.. Nam 00z-845 06z-245am 12z-845 18z-245pm GFS 06z-430 12z-1030am 18z-430pm 00z-1030pm Euro 00z-1245am 12z-1245pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Bookmark this; these are the times each individual model run comes out.. Nam 00z-845 06z-245am 12z-845 18z-245pm GFS 06z-430 12z-1030am 18z-430pm 00z-1030pm Euro 00z-1245am 12z-1245pm Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS has a weak surface reflection of that huge upper trough this go. It'll probably transfer to the surface and spinup, but I don't expect anything nearly as big as the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hr 114 gfs is trying to get a storm going off hse. Trough is digging into the oil rigs, so I doubt this will be a great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It looks like it will be a late phaser on this run. It was so close to producing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hr 129 brushes area with snow. .10+ on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We need more consolidation in the trough, energy is everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hr 129 brushes area with snow. .10+ on Long Island The orientation of the trough seems to be more favorable but the axis is too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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