Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 there is just an insane amount of energy available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think the energy will initiate further southwest than the gfs indicates, the setup sure seems to look that way, I'd rather it show it going OTS right now than a huge hit at 132-144 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Three letters. MJO. Over the past several weeks, each piece of subtrop. energy has been stronger than progged. there is just an insane amount of energy available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Three letters. MJO. Over the past several weeks, each piece of subtrop. energy has been stronger than progged. yup...once it traversed into phase 8, now moving through 2(i believe) we benefit from setting up some pacific energy via the STJ and we benefit from the 500mb pattern associated with phase 2-3 in february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I though the gfs looked silly. Energy like that should be rounding the base of the trough. I don't buy the v shaped trough either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 parade of storms continues on 18z GFS...the other result of missing this storm is that the 50/50 low sets up a bit too far north so heights can pump ahead of the subsequent s/w, making it mostly rain verbatim (although Its interesting that if we get snow with PD, it'll likely be in a prime position to set up threat number 3 at 192). In the earlier runs, the energy closes off sooner and exerted more of an influence in flattening heights for the following storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 While the 18z GFS trough/shortwave look incredible at 129 hrs, the kicker out west isn't allowing it to close off and kicks it east. If it wasn't for the kicker the 18z gfs would show a HISTORIC storm. If we had more blocking too that would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The whole forecast rides on the energy diving down through the Dakota's at 96 hrs. It would also help if the low in the northern part of the trough near the GL dampens out in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Dt on facebook says winter is over after Feb 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It normally is anyhow. At best, you can usually count on at least one decent storm each March as the cold moves north. Kinda obvious. I always chuckled at the claims of March "saving the day" with big snows. It hardly ever happens, unless you get a nice KU setup. Dt on facebook says winter is over after Feb 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If we are going to get a storm of historic proportions, I think the 0z model suite needs to show this tonight. If the euro doesn't jump on board, it may not be a threat. The pattern certainly looks promising though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 While the 18z GFS trough/shortwave look incredible at 129 hrs, the kicker out west isn't allowing it to close off and kicks it east. If it wasn't for the kicker the 18z gfs would show a HISTORIC storm. If we had more blocking too that would help. How do we trump our most recent historic ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Dt on facebook says winter is over after Feb 22nd Probably is right, I expect we're gonna lose this pattern for sure by early March. The tendency has been mild Marches the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If we are going to get a storm of historic proportions, I think the 0z model suite needs to show this tonight. If the euro doesn't jump on board, it may not be a threat. The pattern certainly looks promising though... I don't think it has to show it tonight. Once the vday storm passes, then I will be more interested about this storm. The models have a hard time digesting all this info, so once the models can focus on the sunday storm, i think that is the time to say if it doesn't show this, then we won't get that. That's general terms of course. Btw if this vday storm can come a bit nw with a bit more moisture from gulf, we could we looking at maybe 4-8 or 6-10!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 GEFS for this system: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep24144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 How do we trump our most recent historic ? Well, for me 6" would trump the most recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nogaps is an absolute monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Anthony, you mind posting it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Probably is right, I expect we're gonna lose this pattern for sure by early March. The tendency has been mild Marches the last few years. I agree the MJO gets into 4 week 3 to week 4 in FEB and thats a warm signal for the EC . I think this weekend storm could be on high end and widespread .Full lattitudes troughs retreat they usually do so after big type storms ( usually on the weekends go figure ) as they love to change the pattern inside a week . So most of the flip to warmer signals line up . But tell DT , we have some unfinished business here first . We are in for 2 poss 3 systems then its adios . But not before then . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I agree the MJO gets into 4 week 3 to week 4 in FEB and thats a warm signal for the EC . I think this weekend storm could be on high end and widespread .Full lattitudes troughs retreat they usually do so after big type storms ( usually on the weekends go figure ) as they love to change the pattern inside a week . So most of the flip to warmer signals line up . But tell DT , we have some unfinished business here first . We are in for 2 poss 3 systems then its adios . But not before then . I wouldn't be so sure. It's a -qbo which are prone to classic mid winter pattern reversals. That's pretty much what we've seen. And let's be honest many on here ( not necessarily you or anyone specific ) were ready to proclaim this winter 2011/12 part two. In the last week of January. March could have some minor cold shots and a couple snow chances. That's my thought process at least. Don s agrees with the 2nd half winter idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 How do we trump our most recent historic ? By having a NESIS 4-5 Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 18Z NOGAPS Whoa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I wouldn't be so sure. It's a -qbo which are prone to classic mid winter pattern reversals. That's pretty much what we've seen. And let's be honest many on here ( not necessarily you or anyone specific ) were ready to proclaim this winter 2011/12 part two. In the last week of January. March could have some minor cold shots and a couple snow chances. That's my thought process at least. Don s agrees with the 2nd half winter idea Yeh , My issue was , we were NOT seeing the indicies line up in any favorable combination . There was always a piece missing .I did think it was goin to get cold and had 2 , 10 day periods that i thought were gona b well below , but I didnt forsee any KU possiblities back in late Jan . I did make my arguements based on the Euro s idea that the MJO wasnt dying in 6 or 7 like the GFS had - but that it was gona come all the way around , Now its come so far , its goin into 4 by wek 4 and Im sure thats what JB and DT see 4 is as warm for us as 8 - 1 - 2 - 3 are cold .So im riding the MJO I think this weekend is a widespread event . The Euro is keying on the Northern stream ( they hav weakened all year as we got closer in ) . And if the southern branch is stronger and I think it is , we are in good position with that deep of a trough . We`ll see Ive hit a few and have swung and missed ... Happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 18Z NOGAPS ngp10.prp.132.namer.gif Whoa! 18Z NOGAPS ngp10.prp.132.namer.gif Whoa! 1.80 - 2.50 under minus 10 air . hmmmmmm Whoops MM 6- 9 yuck ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yeh , My issue was , we were NOT seeing the indicies line up in any favorable combination . There was always a piece missing .I did think it was goin to get cold and had 2 , 10 day periods that i thought were gona b well below , but I didnt forsee any KU possiblities back in late Jan . I did make my arguements based on the Euro s idea that the MJO wasnt dying in 6 or 7 like the GFS had - but that it was gona come all the way around , Now its come so far , its goin into 4 by wek 4 and Im sure thats what JB and DT see 4 is as warm for us as 8 - 1 - 2 - 3 are cold .So im riding the MJO I think this weekend is a widespread event . The Euro is keying on the Northern stream ( they hav weakened all year as we got closer in ) . And if the southern branch is stronger and I think it is , we are in good position with that deep of a trough . We`ll see Ive hit a few and have swung and missed ... Happens I don't doubt two things; 1) phase 4 is warm 2) we will eventually (within 14 days) progress into and though phase 4 either into the COD or along the cycle. What I'm saying is that while our pattern changes I believe it's relatively short lived. Maybe a wk or so before we step back down to below normal temps and stormy. I could be completely wrong and spring 2013 could start post feb 22 as Dt is saying. I just doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 With a much colder airmass to play with, IF* a system like this does occur, snowfall totals could be quite impressive due to inflated snowfall rates (20:1 as opposed to 12:1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 1.80 - 2.50 under minus 10 air . hmmmmmm It's in mm but still an inch in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I always get a little worried when the gaps is amped. It has had its days where it's nailed systems when ever models missed it. Not saying that's happening, but my interest is up there. 1.80 - 2.50 under minus 10 air . hmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Is there such a thing as having to much of a perfect setup???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I always get a little worried when the gaps is amped. It has had its days where it's nailed systems when ever models missed it. Not saying that's happening, but my interest is up there. I always get a little worried when the gaps is amped. It has had its days where it's nailed systems when ever models missed it. Not saying that's happening, but my interest is up there. Yeh I used to call it the flat gaps . I just wana se the Euro key on the Southern SW , cause thats where we are goin to eat . I just swore to my wife Fri `s was it , And I would be done for the year .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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