SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Please do not look too deep into specific low placement on these runs at 120-144 hrs out! The only thing to keep in mind is the potential for something huge to take place, the details are far from being accurate or reality with these runs. Wait a few days and then we'll get a clearer picture. Think of these runs as the beginning to solving a 100 piece puzzle, more will be solved as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 UKIE would be much better for us all... just wish i could get how it magically picks up a 983 L over the BM at 144... 120 shows a weak low way down in the GOM... is that the low it picks up? Or is it a Miller B from the clipper in N IL/S WI? That's the thing too...pattern becomes very convoluted because while we have a full latitude trough we have various s/w's rotating around in addition to the PV potentially dropping down. It seems like its one low but it's nearly impossible to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This looks like an inland runner... I dont see any redevlopment out to sea... and when is the last time you saw a 990 L in E PA giving snow to NYC? Not trying to be a debbie downer... but I dunno if this is a monster snowstorm It will be offshore NJ. The Canadian has the placement wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NOGAPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It will be offshore NJ. The Canadian has the placement wrong. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 20-30 mm on the gaps. 0.8-1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 By the way, I hope nobody is hoping for a triple phaser like March 1993 because we wouldn't get all snow. The track of such a monster would very likely be too far inland and pull in warmer air causing a sleet or rainstorm for part of the time. However a fully phased southern and northern stream in a highly amplified full latitude trough that will draw massive amounts of energy from various source regions is a completely different story and it's one I'm leaning towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Is this the storm Saturday night to Sunday morning? Jw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I just finished looking at the operational GFS, seemed like it set us up for at least four potential winter storms over the course of the run. Great pattern with some high latitude blocking developing as well. WX/PT Hey PT. So do you tend to believe the GFS or do you think the EURO needs to be on board or perhaps it already is? This wed/thurs threat is not supported by the EURO (as of now before 0z run) yet GFS says it is very much a threat. Just wondering your thoughts as you often sniff out patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Why? Did you see the GFS, Euro, and UKMET, which are much better models, and how about the NOGAPS now. The Canadian has the right idea, but the wrong placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Did you see the GFS, Euro, and UKMET, which are much better models, and how about the NOGAPS now. The Canadian has the right idea, but the wrong placement. NOGAPS is crappy model. UKMET i saw, but where does that low come from? no, I didnt see the 12z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NOGAPS is crappy model. UKMET i saw, but where does that low come from? no, I didnt see the 12z EURO NOGAPS sucks, but when it's amped like that, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hey PT. So do you tend to believe the GFS or do you think the EURO needs to be on board or perhaps it already is? This wed/thurs threat is not supported by the EURO (as of now before 0z run) yet GFS says it is very much a threat. Just wondering your thoughts as you often sniff out patterns. I think ultimately, the Euro probably has to be on board and I suspect it might be by tonight or tomorrow. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The NOGAPS has a SE Bias. Since it's amp'd, it's clear that there's a Large Scale Storm on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro doesn't have anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Does it even show up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 no real defined shortwave on the euro, but there is still a very deep trough and a neutral-neg NAO with a beautiful ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ok, this is potentially for sat nite into Sunday morning correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ok, this is potentially for sat nite into Sunday morning correct? Yeah, next weekend. It actually shows up on the euro at 162 but offshore..Definitely some potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The gfs showed a low off coast of Carolina's at hour 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 But the trough ridge and negative NAO combined make it so that if there is a defined low off coast, it will potentially ride coast and hopefully give us another powerful nor'easter come Sunday morning. General timeline is sat nite low would develop off coast and by early Sunday hopefully south of benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Wb euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS has a 968mb low off Asbury Park at 150 hrs! Snow just northwest of NYC. Deepens it to 964mb at 153 hrs over Long Island with snow for Western Long Island, NYC and all of NJ at that point. It took a track across south Jersey. Deepens it to 960mb over eastern New England at 156 hrs, still snowing throughout our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Jesus that is a monster bomb...gonna need a lot of things for that to happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 In high resolution I see that it is a 967mb low off of Asbury Park, then 958mb over Rhode Island! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The Euro ensembles have more of a MA development than the OP which may mean the OP is still holding back too much energy. It looks like a decent middle of the road solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Don't the models go beserk between the 16th-26th.? Looks like a corridor of 30" snow totals from various events in that period from DC into Maine .http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=02&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=06&fhour=264¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Next 11 days, possible total snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS also has a major storm around the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Wow. I'd say the gfs is on board for something major. Loving the block that's showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The low cuts off and everyone gets accumulating snow. Reminds me of the retrogading storm in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.