KEITH L.I Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Come on Keith Ant..we just got burned last night..every single storm the model out performs every other model..i wish i was wrong believe me,but there is no denying it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ant..we just got burned last night..every single storm the model out performs every other model..i wish i was wrong believe me,but there is no denying it Euro has had its flaws this winter. Until the other models trend to it, I am not taking it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This still has the potential to be the 3rd highest impact event in the area this season. We have had either minor or major hits so a moderate verifying WWA would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not to nitpick but for the sake of clarity can we change the thread title to 2/16-2/17 threat? Similarities to 12/30/00 a bit. Very nice trends on most guidance. It'l be insteresting to see the euro ensembles later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If this is a Northern Stream Storm, then expect the ECMWF to lag behind the others. I think I could be confusing with its' primary bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not to nitpick but for the sake of clarity can we change the thread title to 2/16-2/17 threat? Similarities to 12/30/00 a bit. Very nice trends on most guidance. It'l be insteresting to see the euro ensembles later this afternoon. only problem is Euro had a foot a snow for Dec 2000,while AVN and ETA were playing catchup..actually Dec 2000 euro had it a week away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That doesn't mean it's going to be right. I am shocked no one mentioned how the Euro made improvements towards a bigger storm. The odds on a storm like this where you have to rely on a late phase favor New England. We got very lucky last time and the flow looks just as progressive as last time, with less of a southern stream component. Hard to ignore the rest of guidance, but odds are never in our favor when you have a situation like this. Might not even favor Boston if the flow is too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 There have been big changes between 00z and 12z. This could just be the first step in this direction. 00z tonight will be very interesting IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 gotta go with the Euro on this one....yeah it was a bit off in the extended range with last night's storm but it totally dominated every other model once we were within 60 hrs. When models are run twice or four times a day, especially when they sometimes change significantly each run, how can you make such definitive statements about which model was best or worst. It gets quite complicated to measure verification, because there are so many parameters to look at and sometimes one model gets a particular aspect right, but has significant errors in a different aspect. Which model run do we verify the result against? If this storm is a glancing blow, do we say the Euro was right to track it east, or wrong to ignore the threat when other models started showing it? Right now, based on the trof axis and wavelength, I would hedge towards an eastward solution, maybe a good hit for parts of NE. But recent trends and ensemble modeling suggest a more westward or exotic solution is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro has had its flaws this winter. Until the other models trend to it, I am not taking it seriously. valid point...let's see if tonight 18z and 0z models trend towards it. Also not happy to see the usually QPF happy JMA so dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We really have to monitor this development closer to the coast potential the next few runs as those SST's could really help this get going sooner while the upper low is closing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 from Forky in the Philly thread: one more suite with more amplification and this could be fairly substantial... moreso than the blizzard HM's response to Forky: Agreed. Initially, the AJ wave dropping in forces a close-off over Ontario; but, it drops to New England with the amplifying coastal. If this drop-off can happen sooner, suddenly we are dealing with a major snowstorm/blizzard from PHL-BOS. from Forky in the Philly thread: one more suite with more amplification and this could be fairly substantial... moreso than the blizzard HM's response to Forky: Agreed. Initially, the AJ wave dropping in forces a close-off over Ontario; but, it drops to New England with the amplifying coastal. If this drop-off can happen sooner, suddenly we are dealing with a major snowstorm/blizzard from PHL-BOS. IF...that is a HUGE word in HM's response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 from Forky in the Philly thread: one more suite with more amplification and this could be fairly substantial... moreso than the blizzard HM's response to Forky: Agreed. Initially, the AJ wave dropping in forces a close-off over Ontario; but, it drops to New England with the amplifying coastal. If this drop-off can happen sooner, suddenly we are dealing with a major snowstorm/blizzard from PHL-BOS. This sounds like hyperbole, but I think it's totally correct. A quick look at the upper level panels on the UK, GGEM, and even the GFS shows this is a close call for a major snowstorm from NJ to Maine. Chances still have to be considered low for such an event, but it's really not that far off as currently modeled. The 12z Euro is a bit of a downer, because it's not very similar to the rest of the guidance and the furthest from big snows. Although at 48hours it's not very different than the UK, but diverges noticeably thereafter. The Euro ensembles will offer a big clue I think. If we can hold this trend through 18z I will start to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 HPC is throwing out the Euro DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST...PREFERENCE: TOWARDS A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS COMPROMISEWITH LOW CONFIDENCETHE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA ISEXPECTED TO DROP IN LATITUDE WITH TIME, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ADEVELOPING DEEP CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO LOSE SOMELATITUDE IN TANDEM, WITH ENERGY COMING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OFTHE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THEGUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEAS, BUT DETAIL ISSUES RIDDLE THEGUIDANCE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOW THEWEAK OUTLIERS WITH THE VORTEX NEAR THE NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA,RATHER THAN SHIFTING THEIR UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGYMOVING UP THE EAST COAST, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEAKER AND MORESTRUNG OUT CYCLONE FARTHER OUT TO SEA, WITH LESS PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND THAN THEOTHER GUIDANCE. WITH TRENDS IN THE CANADIAN SWINGING TOWARDS ASTRONGER SOLUTION (AS ADVERTISED BY THE UKMET FOR OVER A DAY NOW),AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY LYING WITH THE NON-ECMWF RELATEDGUIDANCE, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BEINGGIVEN MINIMAL WEIGHT. THE PREFERENCE REMAINS A 12Z UKMET/12ZCANADIAN/12Z GFS COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH LOWCONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE STREAM INTERACTION/PHASING INVOLVEDWITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH TENDS TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST INITSELF, AND SINCE THEIR SOLUTION OCCASIONALLY BREACHES THE 00ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK (TOTHE WEST). THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MARKED AS A CANDIDATE FORATLANTIC TARGETED OBSERVATIONS/SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHERRECONNAISSANCE. SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHERPRODUCTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 and what happened with the last storm when euro was showing practically nothing and other models had a moderate snowstorm? It was way too dry down here in NJ. The Euro hasn't been doing good and the GFS was more accurate overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And I'm still taking the EURO, not buying anything more until we see it trend. It's record with coastals, and even smaller events such as the last one, is impeccable. -skisheep I'd totally adopt this mentality if I was living in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The odds on a storm like this where you have to rely on a late phase favor New England. We got very lucky last time and the flow looks just as progressive as last time, with less of a southern stream component. Hard to ignore the rest of guidance, but odds are never in our favor when you have a situation like this. Might not even favor Boston if the flow is too progressive. Not really a late phase. More like a late tilting/maturing/cutting off of the longwave trof... and therefore slower and later cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 HPC is throwing out the Euro THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MARKED AS A CANDIDATE FORATLANTIC TARGETED OBSERVATIONS/SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHERRECONNAISSANCE. SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHERPRODUCTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM. 0z runs should be telling then if they send out the NOAA planes tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 HPC is throwing out the Eurokey word LOW confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 key word LOW conf Yes but they are not going with the Euro .This forecast is still up in the air though.. You surely love humping the Euro. DT, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yes but they are not going with you. You surely love humping the Euro. DT, is that you?nice touch, however read the discussion, not only low confidence, but it says the euro is a weak outlier right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Someone mentioned the JMA. JMA is closer to the euro. About .25" for NYC. Someone mentioned the JMA. JMA is closer to the euro. About .25" for NYC. had a lot more overnight - step backwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 didn't the HPC have us in the 70% chance of 4" just a couple days ago for last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And snow88, does it have you worried that the always overly juiced jma is almost as dry as the euro? Also, the normally overjuiced nam has less qpf than the gfs and the ukie, this should be a red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And snow88, does it have you worried that the always overly juiced jma is almost as dry as the euro? Also, the normally overjuiced nam has less qpf than the gfs and the ukie, this should be a red flag Not at all. Like I said, this isn't far from a big storm along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 didn't the HPC have us in the 70% chance of 4" just a couple days ago for last night? Yup, and Paul Kocin made that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro has had its flaws this winter. Until the other models trend to it, I am not taking it seriously. Euro has had its flaws this winter. Until the other models trend to it, I am not taking it seriously. lets put this in simple terms... as a met fan would you bet them on the road facing a healthy Strausburg? Answer: NO. Can the mets win the game, sure...but would they win it 50% of the time? NO WAY. Same deal here, IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I love seeing the guidance get the 540dm contour at 500mb into the deep south. That increases the chances of the trof and mid-level low cutting underneath us. Also nice to see the NAM in the Euro camp for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'd totally adopt this mentality if I was living in NYC I'd totally adopt this mentality if I was living in NYC and if the Euro was the one showing the big snow solution most in this thread would be backing it, lock stock and barrel...but its not...so they toss it. Its such a predictable modus operandi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And snow88, does it have you worried that the always overly juiced jma is almost as dry as the euro? Also, the normally overjuiced nam has less qpf than the gfs and the ukie, this should be a red flag It's all about the upper levels. This is a convoluted setup with a deep, high amplitude trof, with several imbedded pockets of vorticity. If the NAM and Euro are more correct in the upper levels, this will be mostly a miss for our area. But if we move towards the UK/GGEM, then we move towards a more substantial storm, potentially much more substantial. Guidance is still in a transitioning phase, a reflection of the anomalous nature of the synoptic pattern. Each cycle from here will increase confidence in a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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