SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Well now we have the euro vs gfs, rgem, jma, nogaps, ggem, ukie and nam, this just got real interesting... And I'm still taking the EURO, not buying anything more until we see it trend. It's record with coastals, and even smaller events such as the last one, is impeccable. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The trough on the Euro was sharper on this run. Good improvement on this run. Not alot of precip like the other models though.nope, in fact it shows less than it had last night, it has another non event vs all the other models showing near warning snow, we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And I'm still taking the EURO, not buying anything more until we see it trend. It's record with coastals, and even smaller events such as the last one, is impeccable. -skisheep I'm staying neutral at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 and UKMET at hr72...just doesnt capture the low and drag it back west, even though the trough goes negative You don't have to have the surface low really close to the coast to get good precip, especially with the mid level low cutting off and tucking/tilting under us. It's not the low that causes precip, but the forcing mechanisms and the flow around the lows centers at different levels. On the UK you can see the contours tucked back closer to the coast, even though the center is well offshore. That suggests the UK is pretty wet from EPA to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 nope, in fact it shows less than it had last night, it has another non event vs all the other models showing near warning snow, we shall see Uh? This run was better with the trough position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GEFS members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 nope, in fact it shows less than it had last night, it has another non event vs all the other models showing near warning snow, we shall see DT says it shows more than last night. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The surface low is actually right off the NJ coast at hr 48, the phase is just too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It looks like everyone vs the Euro It looks like everyone vs the Euro ill take the euro for $1000, alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 gotta go with the Euro on this one....yeah it was a bit off in the extended range with last night's storm but it totally dominated every other model once we were within 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is a complicated setup. Who knows, the euro could be wrong or the other models could be wrong. You said the same about the 2/13 - 2/14 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm waiting until tonight's guidance before leaning one way or another. Would have been nice to see the Euro come on, but again this is a pattern so fragile it can collapse in a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh? This run was better with the trough position.less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Whatever QPF the Euro has, I'll take 2/3rds and toss the other models. Not to say they are wrong, just way way too wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The surface low is actually right off the NJ coast at hr 48, the phase is just too late. Story of this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You said the same about the 2/13 - 2/14 storm. And you're point is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 FIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Although I am intrigued by this and feel this def has a chance to come even farther west and drop more qpf than currently modeled..... One little slip up by the models keying on the wrong piece of energy could shift this entire storm back to being a nonevent. I'm loving these model trends but staying very timid about this storm producing is the best way to go. Very true. But two things I like. 1) These trends are happening rapidly in the short term! 2) The solutions that we are seeing resemble the big hits from a few days ago. Seeing it, losing it, and seeing it again last minute is a hallmark of unexpectedly significant storms. This looks to be shaping up to be another pounding for SNE. The trof axis argues against pulling this any further southwest, but there is still a little time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 go with the Euro..by far best model!!..expect a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 go with the Euro..by far best model!!..expect a few inches Euro only has 1-3 inches at best while the other ones show 3+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM- 1-3/2-4" GFS- 5-10" GGEM- 5-10" EURO- 1-3" UKIE- 8-12" I like a 2-4/3-6 incher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You don't have to have the surface low really close to the coast to get good precip, especially with the mid level low cutting off and tucking/tilting under us. It's not the low that causes precip, but the forcing mechanisms and the flow around the lows centers at different levels. On the UK you can see the contours tucked back closer to the coast, even though the center is well offshore. That suggests the UK is pretty wet from EPA to SNE. You don't have to have the surface low really close to the coast to get good precip, especially with the mid level low cutting off and tucking/tilting under us. It's not the low that causes precip, but the forcing mechanisms and the flow around the lows centers at different levels. On the UK you can see the contours tucked back closer to the coast, even though the center is well offshore. That suggests the UK is pretty wet from EPA to SNE. thanks for explaining...i see what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 and the precip on the euro is light and comes mid day when temps are warm-wouldn't even accumulate IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 and the precip on the euro is light and comes mid day when temps are warm-wouldn't even accumulate IMO. and it's right!!..never go against the King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 from Forky in the Philly thread: one more suite with more amplification and this could be fairly substantial... moreso than the blizzard HM's response to Forky: Agreed. Initially, the AJ wave dropping in forces a close-off over Ontario; but, it drops to New England with the amplifying coastal. If this drop-off can happen sooner, suddenly we are dealing with a major snowstorm/blizzard from PHL-BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 and it's right!!..never go against the King Come on Keith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 less qpf It's the same for NYC. Last night .20". Today, .19". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro only has 1-3 inches at best while the other ones show 3+ inches. and what happened with the last storm when euro was showing practically nothing and other models had a moderate snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Someone mentioned the JMA. JMA is closer to the euro. About .25" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 and what happened with the last storm when euro was showing practically nothing and other models had a moderate snowstorm? That doesn't mean it's going to be right. I am shocked no one mentioned how the Euro made improvements towards a bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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