Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Jeez, looks like a KU setup. See my earlier post but the problem right now is how messy all that energy is. No real clnsolidated s/w and just a lot going on. But there is blocking...possible PV interaction, active southern steam. Ya you can check off some of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yes, we have a good chance at another KU this weekend somewhere nearby, if not over all of us, or worse yet, quite likey for areas already hard hit by the last one. UKMET is the first one to jump on board. Others will follow. The set up is ominous this coming weekend, and the following one too for that matter. More important than the frame above, look at where this storm develops. Look how far south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Do you have the panel before that? It bombs out over there. The panel before this has a low coming up the coast. A weak low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It bombs out over there. The panel before this has a low coming up the coast. A weak low. That low is not going to be weak by the time it gets to us, and it will be VERY JUICED UP with sub-tropical moisture being pulled out of the Caribbean! My goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We will survive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I love that we have a nice cold airmass coming in around the time the storm could occur. I see huge potential, wonder what the Euro will show tonight with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Canadian also has a KU threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There is definitely some good blocking showing up during this timeframe which will force the energy south, combined with a +PNA and beasting MJO. Something will go down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Canadian also has a KU threat. Not if its headed up W NJ/E PA at 144... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 next panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There is definitely some good blocking showing up during this timeframe which will force the energy south, combined with a +PNA and beasting MJO. Something will go down Ya everything is kind of in our favor for this one. Lets hope we don't pull through next wknd 0/2. VD and PD would make for an amazing 10 days when combined with this past storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ^^^ That would be snow for everyone lol. This threat has a lot of potential to be massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Not if its headed up W NJ/E PA at 144... It won't. It will be off shore of NJ. It is just the Canadian shows the potential for a major storm in our area. You can clearly see how it extends the low to the coast. That is because that is where the low will really be, somewhere between the Canadian depiction and the UKMET depiction, off the Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ^^^ That would be snow for everyone lol. This threat has a lot of potential to be massive. It will be another blizzard. Just who gets the most this time is the only question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ^^^ That would be snow for everyone lol. This threat has a lot of potential to be massive. The precip has been kind of light on almost all the guidance, almost like a glorified cold front. Granted a solution like the ukie or ggem wouldn't have light precip most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ya everything is kind of in our favor for this one. Lets hope we don't pull through next wknd 0/2. VD and PD would make for an amazing 10 days when combined with this past storm Yeah, Many chances in this pattern even if the thursday storm stays to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ^^^ That would be snow for everyone lol. This threat has a lot of potential to be massive. That would be 2 feet plus for all of us ontop of what we already have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That would be 2 feet plus for all of us ontop of what we already have now. Lets see precip maps first. Not so sure it's as much snow as you think. Precip has been oriented more like a cold front on many of the models showing the event. So it's kinda short lived and not incredibly heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lets see precip maps first. Not so sure it's as much snow as you think. Precip has been oriented more like a cold front on many of the models showing the event. So it's kinda short lived and not incredibly heavy I woud not worry about QPF amounts, espeically on the UKMET or GGEM for that matter... They aren't too good with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lets see precip maps first. Not so sure it's as much snow as you think. Precip has been oriented more like a cold front on many of the models showing the event. So it's kinda short lived and not incredibly heavy I promise you, it won't be like that when the precip maps come out with storms like those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I woud not worry about QPF amounts, espeically on the UKMET or GGEM for that matter... They aren't too good with QPF. True...was speaking more about the euro and GFS but were still a week out so no need to iron this out just yet. Lets gets those s/w's oriented better first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I just finished looking at the operational GFS, seemed like it set us up for at least four potential winter storms over the course of the run. Great pattern with some high latitude blocking developing as well. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I promise you, it won't be like that when the precip maps come out with storms like those. This looks like an inland runner... I dont see any redevlopment out to sea... and when is the last time you saw a 990 L in E PA giving snow to NYC? Not trying to be a debbie downer... but I dunno if this is a monster snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I just finished looking at the operational GFS, seemed like it set us up for at least four potential winter storms over the course of the run. Great pattern with some high latitude blocking developing as well. WX/PT Vday, pday, 3 days after that and then another couple days later. If even 2 of those come to fruition weenies will be running though the streets. Winter 2013 has been saved!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This looks like an inland runner... I dont see any redevlopment out to sea... and when is the last time you saw a 990 L in E PA giving snow to NYC? Not trying to be a debbie downer... but I dunno if this is a monster snowstorm Verbatim unlikely for us, but the signal is huge and the pattern doesn't favor an inland low like that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This looks like an inland runner... I dont see any redevlopment out to sea... and when is the last time you saw a 990 L in E PA giving snow to NYC? Not trying to be a debbie downer... but I dunno if this is a monster snowstorm Verbatim I agree. The potential is there though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Verbatim unlikely for us, but the signal is huge and the pattern doesn't favor an inland low like that . I understand that part... just dont understand how based off this run and placement of the SLP people are calling for a major snow off this run... we all get major rain besides those to the west of the low... but as Kaner and CooL just said, ducks are on the pond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Verbatim unlikely for us, but the signal is huge and the pattern doesn't favor an inland low like that . That's funny we basically said the same thing. But ya pattern favors offshore track for sure. This is just one model solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's funny we basically said the same thing. But ya pattern favors offshore track for sure. This is just one model solution UKIE would be much better for us all... just wish i could get how it magically picks up a 983 L over the BM at 144... 120 shows a weak low way down in the GOM... is that the low it picks up? Or is it a Miller B from the clipper in N IL/S WI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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